Defining ecological and chemical reference conditions and restoration targets for nine European lakes

This paper aims to determine the ecological and chemical reference conditions (~1800?C1850 AD) and degree of floristic change at nine enriched lakes, covering a range of types across Europe, using fossil diatom assemblages in dated sediment cores and application of total phosphorus (TP) transfer functions. Additionally the study assesses the potential of analogue matching as a technique for identifying reference sites and for estimating reference TP concentrations for the study lakes using a training set of 347 European lakes and 719 diatom taxa. Oligotrophic, acidophilous to circumneutral taxa were predominant in the reference samples of several of the deep lakes, and benthic Fragilaria spp. dominated the reference samples of two high alkalinity shallow lakes. The degree of floristic change from the reference sample, assessed using the squared chord distance (SCD) dissimilarity coefficient, revealed that two sites had experienced slight change (Lago Maggiore, Felbrigg Lake), five experienced moderate change (Mjoesa, Loch Davan, Loch Leven, White Lough, Esthwaite Water), and two showed evidence of major change (Groby Pool, Piburger See). For three lakes, there were no analogues in the diatom dataset owing to the uniqueness and diversity of the diatom reference assemblages. For the remaining six sites the number of analogues ranged from 2 to 44. For two deep lakes most of the analogues seemed appropriate as they were of the same type and had low TP concentrations. However, for two other deep lakes and two shallow lakes some of the analogues differed markedly in their depth and alkalinity from the lake in question or had TP concentrations seemingly too high to represent reference conditions suggesting that the analogues may not be suitable as reference sites. For the deep lakes, similar reference TP values were calculated using the EDDI Combined TP transfer function and the analogue matching technique with concentrations typically <20 ??g L^?1. However, for the shallow lakes, the analogue matching method produced inferred values considerably higher than those of the transfer function. The wide ecological tolerances of many of the diatom taxa found in the reference samples most likely explain the selection of inappropriate analogue sites. In summary, the study demonstrates that palaeoecological techniques can play a valuable role in determining reference conditions and indicates that the analogue matching technique has the potential to be a useful tool for identifying appropriate reference sites for lakes impacted by eutrophication.     

Major Hα flares in centers of activity with very small or no spots

Major H flares (importance 2) in plages with only small or no spots constitute a rare but well observed aspect of solar activity. Information relating to 83 such flares has been assembled and studied. In the years 1956–1968 these flares represented 7% of all confirmed flares of importance 2. In general, the flares were of unusually long duration and rose to maximum intensity slowly. A flash phase was often absent or poorly defined. In a number of cases, the flare emission included two bright filaments more or less parallel. The flares usually occurred during the late, flare-poor phase of a center of activity, and their outbreak did not presage a resurgence of activity in subsequent rotations. The flares were frequently associated with the position of dark filaments.Like major flares in general, the flares in regions with small or no spots usually were associated with long-enduring radiation (gradual rise and fall and/or postburst increase) at 10 cm, and with X-ray enhancements (2–12 Å) at least as great as 4 times the quiet Sun. They were deficient, in the associated occurrence of strong, impulsive, centimetric bursts and of X-ray events > 20 times the quiet Sun. The absence of large spots apparently did not inhibit the occurrence of Type II bursts.Only 41% of the major flares here studied were accompanied by shortwave fades and of these ionospheric disturbances only a few were great events. In general the flares were not followed by the detection of high energy particles or the onset of geomagnetic storms. However, a few of the flares (including those of 1967 January 11 and February 13) apparently were associated with well observed particle emission and suggest that the presence of a large complex spot is not always necessary for the acceleration of energetic particles or the emission of solar plasma at the time of a large H flare.     

'This is like my comfort zone': Senses of place and belonging within Oruāmo/Beachhaven, New Zealand

Abstract:  This paper examines the culturally specific experiences of belonging within Oruāmo/Beachhaven, a suburb in North Shore City. In-depth interviews with 32 caregivers of young children expose the fact that the ethnic groups represented – Māori, Samoan and Pākehā– vary in their uses and understandings of, as well as feelings for, residential neighbourhood. Examination of the themes of natural environment, social relations, continuity of residence, facilities, organisations and place transformation reveal that, while representatives of all groups had views on these matters, there was a variable degree of engagement with and priority afforded to these concerns.     

The drying up of Britain? A national estimate of changes in seasonal river flows from 11 Regional Climate Model simulations

As climate change may modify the hydrological cycle significantly, understanding the impact on river flow is important because it affects long‐term water resources planning. Here, we describe a high‐resolution British assessment of changes in river flows in the 2050s under 11 different realisations of HadRM3. In winter, river flows may either increase or decrease, with a wide range of possible decreases in summer flow. These results should encourage adaptation that copes with a broad range of future hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variability in nutrient concentrations in Liverpool Bay,a temperate latitude region of freshwater influence

This paper presents data for the temporal and spatial distribution of nutrients in Liverpool Bay between 2003 and 2009 and an analysis of inputs of nutrients from the major rivers. The spatial distribution of winter nutrient concentrations are controlled by the region of freshwater influence (ROFI) in Liverpool Bay through the mixing of riverine freshwater and Irish Sea water, with strong linear relationships between nutrient concentration and salinity between December and February. The location of highest spring and summer phytoplankton biomass reflects the nutrient distributions as controlled by the ROFI. Analysis of 7 years of data showed that the seasonal cycle of winter maximum nutrient concentrations in February and drawdown in April/May is a recurrent feature of this location, with the timing of the drawdown varying by several weeks between years. A comparison of observed nutrient concentrations in Liverpool Bay with those predicted from inputs from rivers has been presented. Nutrient concentrations in the rivers flowing into Liverpool Bay were highly variable and there was reasonable agreement between predicted freshwater nutrient concentrations using data from this study and riverine nutrient concentrations weighted on the basis of river flow, although the exact nature of mixing between the rivers could not be determined. Predicted Irish Sea nutrient concentrations in the winter were lower than those reported for the input waters of the North Atlantic, supporting findings from previous work that nitrogen is lost through denitrification in the Irish Sea.     

Data mining methods for hydroclimatic forecasting

Skillful streamflow forecasts at seasonal lead times may be useful to water managers seeking to provide reliable water supplies and maximize hydrosystem benefits. In this study, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river–reservoir systems. In a case study of the Lower Colorado River system in central Texas, a number of potential predictors are evaluated for forecasting seasonal streamflow, including large-scale climate indices related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and others. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas.     

Modelling liquefaction-induced building damage in earthquake loss estimation

The assessment of building damage caused by liquefaction-induced ground deformations requires the definition of building capacity and vulnerability as a function of the demand, as well as damage scales to describe the state of the damaged building. This paper presents a framework for resolving these issues within the context of earthquake loss estimations, where large variations in building stock and ground conditions must be considered. The principal modes of building response to both uniform and differential ground movements are discussed and the uncertainties in their evaluation are highlighted. A unified damage scale is proposed for use in both reconnaissance and assessment of all modes of building damage, including ‘rigid body’ response of structures on stiff foundations to uniform or differential ground movements. The interaction of ground shaking and liquefaction in the context of induced structural damage is also briefly considered. The paper raises important aspects of earthquake loss estimations in regions of liquefaction potential, which remain relatively poorly defined at present.