Variability and predictability of Antarctic krill swarm structure

Swarming is a fundamental part of the life of Euphausia superba, yet we still know very little about what drives the considerable variability in swarm shape, size and biomass. We examined swarms across the Scotia Sea in January and February 2003 using a Simrad EK60 (38 and 120 kHz) echosounder, concurrent with net sampling. The acoustic data were analysed through applying a swarm-identification algorithm and then filtering out all non-krill targets. The area, length, height, depth, packing-concentration and inter-swarm distance of 4525 swarms was derived by this method. Hierarchical clustering revealed 2 principal swarm types, which differed in both their dimensions and packing-concentrations. Type 1 swarms were generally small (<50 m long) and were not very tightly packed (<10 ind. m⁻³), whereas type 2 swarms were an order of magnitude larger and had packing concentrations up to 10 times greater. Further sub-divisions of these types identified small and standard swarms within the type 1 group and large and superswarms within the type 2 group. A minor group (swarm type 3) was also found, containing swarms that were isolated (>100 km away from the next swarm). The distribution of swarm types over the survey grid was examined with respect to a number of potential explanatory variables describing both the environment and the internal-state of krill (namely maturity, body length, body condition). Most variables were spatially averaged over scales of 100 km and so mainly had a mesoscale perspective. The exception was the level of light (photosynthetically active radiation (PAR)) for which measurements were specific to each swarm. A binary logistic model was constructed from four variables found to have significant explanatory power (P<0.05): surface fluorescence, PAR, krill maturity and krill body length. Larger (type 2) swarms were more commonly found during nighttime or when it was overcast during the day, when surface fluorescence was low, and when the krill were small and immature. A strong pattern of diel vertical migration was not observed although the larger and denser swarms tended to occur more often at night than during the day. The vast majority of krill were contained within a minor fraction of the total number of swarms. These krill-rich swarms were more common in areas dominated by small and immature krill. We propose that, at the mesoscale level, the structure of swarms switches from being predominantly large and tightly packed to smaller and more diffuse as krill grow and mature. This pattern is further modulated according to feeding conditions and then level of light.     

From green spaces to vital places: connection and expression in urban greening

ABSTRACT

Urban greening, the improvement or increase of green spaces in cities, has purported environmental, individual, social and cultural benefits. The extent and qualities of urban green spaces, and our opportunities to engage with them, reflect and shape human responses to those spaces. Planning scholars recognise the traditional role and obligation of planning to help reduce social problems and see the potential for the public to be leaders in defining responses. However, use of technical, scientific and economic approaches by urban land managers can limit recognition of diverse connections to urban green and advance narrow conceptions of nature. We sample people’s responses to different forms of urban green and greening in three case studies from Melbourne, Australia. We show that modern connections and expressions are personal, social and dynamic. Human experiences are embedded in nature and connections develop from interactions with and about nature, in formal and informal spaces. Diverse connections prompt responses to nature, and actions affecting nature itself. Accordingly, we propose ways to develop more receptive, responsive, inclusive and connected forms of urban greening. These include recognising diverse connections and expressions, encouraging dynamic relationships with nature, and providing varied ways of engaging with urban green spaces that foster stewardship.     

Data mining methods for hydroclimatic forecasting

Skillful streamflow forecasts at seasonal lead times may be useful to water managers seeking to provide reliable water supplies and maximize hydrosystem benefits. In this study, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river–reservoir systems. In a case study of the Lower Colorado River system in central Texas, a number of potential predictors are evaluated for forecasting seasonal streamflow, including large-scale climate indices related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and others. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas.     

Spatial and temporal variability in nutrient concentrations in Liverpool Bay,a temperate latitude region of freshwater influence

This paper presents data for the temporal and spatial distribution of nutrients in Liverpool Bay between 2003 and 2009 and an analysis of inputs of nutrients from the major rivers. The spatial distribution of winter nutrient concentrations are controlled by the region of freshwater influence (ROFI) in Liverpool Bay through the mixing of riverine freshwater and Irish Sea water, with strong linear relationships between nutrient concentration and salinity between December and February. The location of highest spring and summer phytoplankton biomass reflects the nutrient distributions as controlled by the ROFI. Analysis of 7 years of data showed that the seasonal cycle of winter maximum nutrient concentrations in February and drawdown in April/May is a recurrent feature of this location, with the timing of the drawdown varying by several weeks between years. A comparison of observed nutrient concentrations in Liverpool Bay with those predicted from inputs from rivers has been presented. Nutrient concentrations in the rivers flowing into Liverpool Bay were highly variable and there was reasonable agreement between predicted freshwater nutrient concentrations using data from this study and riverine nutrient concentrations weighted on the basis of river flow, although the exact nature of mixing between the rivers could not be determined. Predicted Irish Sea nutrient concentrations in the winter were lower than those reported for the input waters of the North Atlantic, supporting findings from previous work that nitrogen is lost through denitrification in the Irish Sea.     

Super-parameterization in ocean modeling: Application to deep convection

We explore the efficacy of “super parameterization” (SP) in ocean modeling in which local 2-d non-hydrostatic plume-resolving fine-grained (FG) models are embedded at each vertical column of a coarse-grained (CG) hydrostatic model. A general multi-scale algorithm is described in which tendencies from the FG models are projected onto the CG model which in turn constrains the average state of the FG models, coupling the two models together. The approach is tested in the context of models of open ocean deep convection and compared with a pure hydrostatic, coarse resolution model using convective adjustment (HYD) and a full 3-d non-hydrostatic plume-resolving simulation (NH). The SP model is found to be greatly superior to HYD at much less computational cost than the fully non-hydrostatic calculation.     

Defining ecological and chemical reference conditions and restoration targets for nine European lakes

This paper aims to determine the ecological and chemical reference conditions (~1800?C1850 AD) and degree of floristic change at nine enriched lakes, covering a range of types across Europe, using fossil diatom assemblages in dated sediment cores and application of total phosphorus (TP) transfer functions. Additionally the study assesses the potential of analogue matching as a technique for identifying reference sites and for estimating reference TP concentrations for the study lakes using a training set of 347 European lakes and 719 diatom taxa. Oligotrophic, acidophilous to circumneutral taxa were predominant in the reference samples of several of the deep lakes, and benthic Fragilaria spp. dominated the reference samples of two high alkalinity shallow lakes. The degree of floristic change from the reference sample, assessed using the squared chord distance (SCD) dissimilarity coefficient, revealed that two sites had experienced slight change (Lago Maggiore, Felbrigg Lake), five experienced moderate change (Mjoesa, Loch Davan, Loch Leven, White Lough, Esthwaite Water), and two showed evidence of major change (Groby Pool, Piburger See). For three lakes, there were no analogues in the diatom dataset owing to the uniqueness and diversity of the diatom reference assemblages. For the remaining six sites the number of analogues ranged from 2 to 44. For two deep lakes most of the analogues seemed appropriate as they were of the same type and had low TP concentrations. However, for two other deep lakes and two shallow lakes some of the analogues differed markedly in their depth and alkalinity from the lake in question or had TP concentrations seemingly too high to represent reference conditions suggesting that the analogues may not be suitable as reference sites. For the deep lakes, similar reference TP values were calculated using the EDDI Combined TP transfer function and the analogue matching technique with concentrations typically <20 ??g L^?1. However, for the shallow lakes, the analogue matching method produced inferred values considerably higher than those of the transfer function. The wide ecological tolerances of many of the diatom taxa found in the reference samples most likely explain the selection of inappropriate analogue sites. In summary, the study demonstrates that palaeoecological techniques can play a valuable role in determining reference conditions and indicates that the analogue matching technique has the potential to be a useful tool for identifying appropriate reference sites for lakes impacted by eutrophication.     

Micromorphological evidence for subglacial multiphase sedimentation and deformation during overpressurized fluid flow associated with hydrofracturing

Hydrofracture systems are being increasingly recognized within subglacial to ice‐marginal settings and represent a visible expression of the passage of pressurized meltwater through these glacial environments. Such structures provide a clear record of the fluctuating hydrostatic pressure and of the resulting brittle fracturing of the host sediment/bedrock and the pene‐contemporaneous liquefaction and introduction of sediment‐fill. A detailed macro‐ and microstructural study of a hydrofracture system cutting Devonian sandstone bedrock exposed at the Meads of St John, near Inverness (NE Scotland), has revealed that this complex multiphase system was active over a prolonged period and accommodated several phases of fluid flow. The main conduits that fed the hydrofracture system are located along bedding within the sandstone, with the site of the wider, steeply inclined to subvertical, transgressive linking sections being controlled by the contemporaneous development of high‐angle fractures and normal faults, the latter occurring in response to localized extension within the bedrock. A comparison with published engineering hydraulic fracturing data indicates that the various stages of sediment‐fill deposited during a flow event can be directly related to the fluctuation in overpressure during hydrofracturing. A model is proposed linking the evolution of this hydrofracture system to the retreat of the overlying Findhorn glacier. The results of this study also indicate that the development and repeated reactivation of subglacial hydrofracture systems can have a dramatic effect on the permeability of the bed, influencing the potential for overpressure build‐up within the subglacial hydrogeological system, and facilitating the migration of meltwater beneath glaciers and ice sheets.