Non-linear optimal multivariate spatial design using spatial vine copulas

A multivariate spatial sampling design that uses spatial vine copulas is presented that aims to simultaneously reduce the prediction uncertainty of multiple variables by selecting additional sampling locations based on the multivariate relationship between variables, the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. Novel aspects of the methodology include the development of optimal designs that use spatial vine copulas to estimate prediction uncertainty and, additionally, use transformation methods for dimension reduction to model multivariate spatial dependence. Spatial vine copulas capture non-linear spatial dependence within variables, whilst a chained transformation that uses non-linear principal component analysis captures the non-linear multivariate dependence between variables. The proposed design methodology is applied to two environmental case studies. Performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated through partial redesigns of the original spatial designs. The first application is a soil contamination example that demonstrates the ability of the proposed methodology to address spatial non-linearity in the data. The second application is a forest biomass study that highlights the strength of the methodology in incorporating non-linear multivariate dependence into the design.     

How do Local People Value Rural Waterways? A Study in the Upper Catchments of South East Queensland’s Rivers

In Integrated Catchment (or Watershed) Management, the impacts of upstream conditions and actions on downstream environments and people is a key issue. Knowing upstream people’s values towards waterways is, therefore, important for community engagement and the development of publicly acceptable management approaches. This qualitative study applies Kellert’s framework of relational values to explore the types and diversity of people’s values towards the upper catchments of South East Queensland, Australia, and tests the “universality” of Kellert’s framework. We found the full range of values identified by Kellert with some variations and elaborations in content. People living, working, and enjoying recreation in the upper catchments have affection for their local waterways and a moral inclination to protect them. This extends our understanding of how people value these waterways, which is more often depicted in terms of utilitarian and economic value. The findings provide managers with new opportunities for engaging with local communities and waterway users.     

Relative influences of ocean acidification and temperature on intertidal barnacle post-larvae at the northern edge of their geographic distribution

The Arctic Ocean and its associated ecosystems face numerous challenges over the coming century. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ is causing increasing warming and ice melting as well as a concomitant change in ocean chemistry (“ocean acidification”). As temperature increases it is expected that many temperate species will expand their geographic distribution northwards to follow this thermal shift; however with the addition of ocean acidification this transition may not be so straightforward. Here we investigate the potential impacts of ocean acidification and climate change on populations of an intertidal species, in this case the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides, at the northern edge of its range. Growth and development of metamorphosing post-larvae were negatively impacted at lower pH (pH 7.7) compared to the control (pH 8.1) but were not affected by elevated temperature (+4 °C). The mineral composition of the shells did not alter under any of the treatments. The combination of reduced growth and maintained mineral content suggests that there may have been a change in the energetic balance of the exposed animals. In undersaturated conditions more mineral is expected to dissolve from the shell and hence more energy would be required to maintain the mineral integrity. Any energy that would normally be invested into growth could be reallocated and hence organisms growing in lowered pH grow slower and end up smaller than individuals grown in higher pH conditions. The idea of reallocation of resources under different conditions of pH requires further investigation. However, there could be long-term implications on the fitness of these barnacles, which in turn may prevent them from successfully colonising new areas.     

Reconciling theories of a mechanically driven meridional overturning circulation with thermohaline forcing and multiple equilibria

It has recently been suggested that the structure and strength of the meridional overturning circulation in the global ocean is governed by the input of mechanical energy to the system by winds and tides. However, it is not clear how this suggestion relates to the existence of multiple equilibria of the meridional overturning circulation, which depends on thermohaline feedbacks and is more consistent with a buoyancy-driven view of the circulation. Both theories have been illustrated by box models in the past (Stommel in Tellus 13:224–230, 1961; Gnanadesikan in Science 283:2077–2079, 1999). Here we incorporate these two theories into a single box model in an attempt to reconcile the roles of mechanical and buoyancy forcing in driving the meridional overturning circulation. The box model has two equilibrium solutions, one with sinking at high northern latitudes as in the present-day Atlantic, and one without. The circulation is mechanically driven, but the northern sinking can be thought of as a release valve which acts as a sink of potential energy when the surface water at high northern latitudes is dense enough to convect. While the source of energy comes from mechanical forcing, the presence or otherwise of multiple equilibria is therefore determined by thermohaline feedbacks. In some areas of parameter space an oscillation between the model’s two circulation regimes occurs, reminiscent of a bipolar seesaw.     

Crustal evolution of Archaean granitoids in the Murchison Province, Western Australia

Four suites of granitoids intruded the supracrustal greenstone sequence in the Murchison Province of the Archaean Yilgarn Craton during a 300 million year period. The earliest granitoid suite intruded the base of the developing greenstone sequence as a series of thin subhorizontal tabular plutons of monzogranite and granodiorite at 2.9Ga. This suite has been deformed and metamorphosed, and is now a pegmatite-banded gneiss. At about 2.7 Ga, thick, subhorizontal, tabular plutons of monzogranite intruded the base of the greenstone sequence. This suite, which now forms much of the regions between greenstone belts, was folded and recrystallized during regional deformation and metamorphism. Two distinct but contemporaneous suites of post-folding granitoids intruded the greenstone belts at 2.6 Ga, largely post-dating regional metamorphism. One suite of post-folding granitoids comprises tonalite, trondhjemite, granodiorite and monzogranite plutons, confined mainly to the north of the Province. The other suite comprises quartz-rich monzogranite and syenogranite plutons, confined mainly to the south of the Province.Pegmatite-banded gneiss, recrystallized monzogranite, and the northern suite of post-folding granitoids were all derived by partial-melting of mafic crustal rocks. Most post-folding granitoids from the southern suite were derived by partial-melting of siliceous crustal material at least as old as basal greenstones. The modes and sites of intrusion of all granitoid plutons were controlled by active tectonic processes or by structural features of the crust. Widespread 2.6 Ga Rb---Sr ages of pegmatite-banded gneiss and recrystallized monzogranite reflect post-metamorphic cooling which was contemporaneous with intrusion of post-folding granitoids.     

Stable carbon isotope analysis on fossil Cedrus pollen shows summer aridification in Morocco during the last 5000 years

Quantitative climate reconstructions from pollen typically rely on empirical relationships between pollen abundances or assemblages and climate, such as the modern analogue technique. However, these techniques may be problematic when applied to fossil sequences, as they cannot separate anthropogenic from climatic influence on pollen assemblages. Here, we reconstruct Mid‐ to Late Holocene summer aridity in the Middle Atlas, Morocco, using stable carbon isotope analysis of isolated fossil Cedrus pollen. This approach is based on well‐documented plant physiological responses to moisture stress and is therefore independent of vegetation composition. We find that there has been a general long‐term trend of increasing summer aridity in the region during the last 5000 years to the present day. The gradual decline of Cedrus atlantica forest in the Late Holocene follows this aridity trend. Additionally, we show how isolating a specific pollen type for carbon isotope analysis yields a robust climate signal, versus using pollen concentrates or bulk sediment. Our findings indicate that climate has become drier in the region and confirms the Mid‐ to Late Holocene aridification trend observed more widely in the western Mediterranean, using a novel proxy for this region with good potential for wider application in other environments.     

Helgoland Roads,North Sea: 45 Years of Change

The Helgoland Roads time series is one of the richest temporal marine data sets available. Running since 1962, it documents changes for phytoplankton, salinity, Secchi disc depths and macronutrients. Uniquely, the data have been carefully quality controlled and linked to relevant meta-data, and the pelagic time series is further augmented by zooplankton, intertidal macroalgae, macro-zoobenthos and bacterioplankton data. Data analyses have shown changes in hydrography and biota around Helgoland. In the late 1970s, water inflows from the south-west to the German Bight increased with a corresponding increase in flushing rates. Salinity and annual mean temperature have also increased since 1962 and the latter by an average of 1.67°C. This has influenced seasonal phytoplankton growth causing significant shifts in diatom densities and the numbers of large diatoms (e. g. Coscinodiscus wailesii). Changes in zooplankton diversity have included the appearance of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi. The macroalgal community also showed an increase in green algal and a decrease in brown algal species after 1959. Over 30 benthic macrofaunal species have been newly recorded at Helgoland over the last 20 years, with a distinct shift towards southern species. These detailed data provide the basis for long-term analyses of changes on many trophic levels at Helgoland Roads.     

Propagation of tropospheric gravity waves into the upper atmosphere of Mars

We study the propagation of gravity waves in the martian atmosphere using a linearized one-dimensional full-wave model. Calculations are carried out for atmospheric parameters characteristic of Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (on Mars Global Surveyor MGS) observations of apparent gravity waves in high latitude clouds and MGS radio occultation measurements of temperature variations with height suggestive of gravity wave activity. Waves that reach the thermosphere produce fluctuations in density comparable in amplitude with the density variations detected in Mars Odyssey aerobraking data. Gravity waves of modest amplitude are found to deposit momentum and generate significant heating and cooling in the martian atmosphere. The largest heating and cooling effects occur in the thermosphere, at altitudes between about 130 and 150 km, with heating occurring at the lower altitudes and cooling taking place above.     

Isotopic fractionation of the major elements of molten basalt by chemical and thermal diffusion

Samples produced in piston cylinder experiments were used to document the thermal isotopic fractionation of all the major elements of basalt except for aluminum and the fractionation of iron isotopes by chemical diffusion between a natural basalt and rhyolite. The thermal isotopic fractionations are summarized in terms of a parameter Ω_i defined as the fractionation in per mil per 100 °C per atomic mass units difference between the isotopes. For molten basalt we report Ω_Ca = 1.6, Ω_Fe = 1.1, Ω_Si = 0.6, Ω_O = 1.5. In an earlier paper we reported Ω_Mg = 3.6. These fractionations represent a steady state balance between thermal diffusion and chemical diffusion with the mass dependence of the thermal diffusion coefficient being significantly larger than the mass dependence of the chemical diffusion coefficients for isotopes of the same element. The iron isotopic measurements of the basalt-rhyolite diffusion couple showed significant fractionation that are parameterized in terms of a parameter β_Fe = 0.03 when the ratio of the diffusion coefficients D₅₄ and D₅₆ of ⁵⁴Fe and ⁵⁶Fe is expressed in terms of the atomic mass as D₅₄/D₅₆ = (56/54)^β_Fe. This value of β_Fe is smaller than what we had measured earlier for lithium, magnesium and calcium (i.e., β_Li = 0.215, β_Ca = 0.05, β_Mg = 0.05) but still significant when one takes into account the high precision with which iron isotopic compositions can be measured (i.e., ±0.03‰) and that iron isotope fractionations at magmatic temperatures from other causes are extremely small. In a closing section we discuss technological and geological applications of isotopic fractionations driven by either or both chemical and thermal gradients.     

On Mid-Term Periodicities in Cosmic Rays

The contributions of quasi-periodic variations of cosmic rays for T>27 days at the primary energies to which neutron monitors are sensitive have a rather complicated character. They were reported in several papers (e.g. Valdés-Galicia, Perez-Enriquez, and Otaola, 1996; Mavromichalaki et al., 2003; Kudela et al., 2002; Caballero and Valdés-Galicia, 2001) from individual stations and for various time intervals covered. The data archive of several neutron monitor stations developed within the NMDB project () now involves long time series of measurements at neutron monitors situated at different geomagnetic cut-off rigidity positions and at different altitudes. It is updated continuously. Using the daily averages of cosmic-ray intensity at three selected stations within NMDB: i) the temporal evolution of the selected quasi-periodicities, especially those of approximately 1.7 yr, 150 days and 26 – 32 days respectively, until 2008 are reviewed, ii) the similarities of the spectra are checked and iii) the occurrence of quasi-periodicities with those observed in solar, interplanetary and geomagnetic activities (Moussas et al., 2005; Richardson and Cane, 2005) as well as in energetic particles below the atmospheric threshold are discussed (Laurenza et al., 2009).