Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 1: baseline climate

Assessing future climate and its potential implications on river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. Sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers also needs to incorporate information on the uncertainty in the results. Moreover, existing bias in the reproduction of the ‘current’ (or baseline) river flow regime is likely to transfer to the simulations of flow in future time horizons, and it is thus critical to undertake baseline flow assessment while undertaking future impacts studies. This paper investigates the three main sources of uncertainty surrounding climate change impact studies on river flows: uncertainty in GCMs, in downscaling techniques and in hydrological modelling. The study looked at four British catchments’ flow series simulated by a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model with observed and GCM-derived rainfall series representative of the baseline time horizon (1961–1990). A block-resample technique was used to assess climate variability, either from observed records (natural variability) or reproduced by GCMs. Variations in mean monthly flows due to hydrological model uncertainty from different model structures or model parameters were also evaluated. Three GCMs (HadCM3, CCGCM2, and CSIRO-mk2) and two downscaling techniques (SDSM and HadRM3) were considered. Results showed that for all four catchments, GCM uncertainty is generally larger than downscaling uncertainty, and both are consistently greater than uncertainty from hydrological modelling or natural variability. No GCM or downscaling technique was found to be significantly better or to have a systematic bias smaller than the others. This highlights the need to consider more than one GCM and downscaling technique in impact studies, and to assess the bias they introduce when modelling river flows.     

The calibration of the Cassini-Huygens CAPS Electron Spectrometer

We present the two-stage method used to calibrate the electron spectrometer (ELS), part of the plasma spectrometer (CAPS) on board the Cassini spacecraft currently in orbit around Saturn. The CAPS-ELS is a top-hat electrostatic analyser designed to measure electron fluxes between 0.5 eV and 26 keV. The on-ground calibration method described here includes the production of photoelectrons, which are energised and passed into the CAPS-ELS in a purpose designed calibration facility. Knowledge of the intensity of these incident electrons and the subsequent instrument output provides an on-ground calibrated geometric factor. Comparative studies of physical quantities such as plasma density and electron differential flux calculated using on-ground calibration factor with the quantities deduced from the wave experiment and high energy electron detector provide in-flight calibration. The results of this are presented together with a comparison of the experimentally calibrated values with simulated calibration values.     

Bacteriohopanepolyol biomarker composition of organic matter exported to the Arctic Ocean by seven of the major Arctic rivers

Bacteriohopanepolyols (BHPs) are a diverse group of membrane lipids produced by a wide variety of bacteria and can be used as molecular biomarkers for bacterial processes and populations in both modern and ancient environments. A group of BHPs, including adenosylhopane and structurally related compounds, have been identified as being specific to soils, enabling the transport of terrestrial organic matter (terrOM) to the marine realm to be monitored. Estuary surface sediment samples were obtained from the five Great Russian Arctic Rivers (GRARs; Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Indigirka and Kolyma) and river sediments were obtained from two North American Rivers (Yukon and Mackenzie). Analysis of the BHP signatures, using high performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC–MSⁿ), indicated the presence of 15 different BHPs originating from a variety of different bacteria, as well as a significant presence of terrestrially derived OM. Total BHP abundance and the contribution of the “soil-marker” BHPs to the total BHP pool increased eastwards among the GRAR sediments. This suggests increasing terrestrial OM or increased preservation of OM as a result of shorter periods of permafrost thawing. The North American rivers showed greatly differing BHP levels between the Yukon and Mackenzie rivers, with a greater BHP input and thus a relatively higher soil OM contribution from the Yukon. The Indigirka River basin in the eastern Siberian Arctic appeared to be the epicentre in the pan-Arctic BHP distribution trend, with the highest “soil-marker” BHPs but the lowest tetrafunctionalised BHPs. Aminobacteriohopanepentol, an indicator of aerobic methane oxidation, was observed in all the sediments, with the source being either the marine environment or methane producing terrestrial environments.     

Bacteriohopanepolyol signatures of bacterial populations in Western Canadian soils

Bacteriohopanepolyols (BHPs) are naturally occurring compounds derived from bacteria. Their quantity and diversity in five Western Canadian soils, which vary mostly in vegetative cover, were examined using high performance liquid chromatography – atmospheric pressure chemical ionization – mass spectrometry (HPLC–APCI–MS). Eighteen BHP compounds including tetra-, penta- and hexa-functionalised components, as well as composite components, were identified. Concentrations were highest in the forest-grassland transition soil [515 μg/g organic carbon (OC)], followed by the forest soil (431 μg/g OC) and the grassland soils (333–306 μg/g OC). The distribution trends measured using HPLC–ACPI–MS agree with hopanoid measurements using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) but intact BHPs were detected at a concentration that was an order of magnitude higher using HPLC–APCI–MS. Adenosylhopane was the most abundant BHP in all the samples and comprised on average 27% of total BHPs, supporting earlier work indicating that adenosylhopane is an excellent soil-specific biomarker. The soil samples vary in vegetative cover and this is likely one of the main reasons for observing variation in BHP composition, suggesting that BHP biomarkers may be a valuable tool for assessing bacterial community structure in soil when used in cooperation with other molecular microbial ecology methods (such as DNA genotyping).     

Structural diversity of diether lipids in carbonate chimneys at the Lost City Hydrothermal Field

The Lost City Hydrothermal Field hosts a distinctive microbial ecosystem that is supported by the products of serpentinization reactions. The calcium carbonate chimneys here contain abundant isoprenoidal and non-isoprenoidal ether lipids, the structural diversity of which is similar to that found in carbonate crusts at cold seeps where anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is the dominant biogeochemical process. The microbial community at Lost City includes abundant archaea, which largely belong to a single phylotype within the methanogenic Methanosarcinales. Isoprenoidal diethers derived from these archaea have polar head groups comprising phosphatidylglycerol or monoglycosyl moieties, although many isoprenoidal diethers detected in these carbonates lack head groups.The non-isoprenoidal diether lipids at Lost City are largely glycolipids. Glycosydic non-isoprenoidal diethers have not previously been reported from any environments or bacterial isolates. Glycolipids are common in archaea where they contain isoprenoidal hydrocarbon cores ether linked to glycerol. Glycolipids also occur in some bacteria and in these non-isoprenoidal fatty acid chains are ester linked to glycerol. However, the glycosylated non-isoprenoidal diether lipids at Lost City contain a previously undetected combination of archaeal and bacterial traits that might be an adaptive response to the vent environment. We hypothesize that utilization of glycosyl head groups instead of phosphatidyl head groups is a strategy for conservation of phosphate by organisms growing in fluids low in this essential nutrient.     

Oscillations in the southern extent of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the mid-Holocene

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is thought to play a key role in the propagation and amplification of climate changes through its influence on the global distribution of heat and water vapour. However, little is known about past changes in the size and position of the IPWP. In this study, we use a total of 48 modern and fossil coral records from the Mentawai Islands (Sumatra, Indonesia) and Muschu/Koil Islands (Papua New Guinea) to reconstruct oscillations in the extent of the IPWP since the mid-Holocene. We show that reliable estimates of mean sea surface temperature (SST) can be obtained from fossil corals by using low-resolution Sr/Ca analysis of a suite of corals to overcome the large uncertainties associated with mean Sr/Ca-SST estimates from individual coral colonies. The coral records indicate that the southeastern and southwestern margins of the IPWP were cooler than at present between 5500 and 4300 years BP (1.2 °C ± 0.3 °C) and were similarly cool before 6800 years BP. This mid-Holocene cooling was punctuated by an abrupt, short-lived shift to mean SSTs that were warmer than at present between 6600 and 6300 years BP (1.3 °C ± 0.3 °C), while similarly warm conditions may have also existed after 4300 years BP. We suggest that mid-Holocene cooling at our study sites was related to contractions of the southeastern and southwestern margins of the IPWP, associated with the more northerly position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that accompanied mid-Holocene strengthening of the Asian summer monsoon. Conversely, intervals of abrupt warming appear to correspond with widespread episodes of monsoon weakening and accompanying southward migrations of the ITCZ that caused the IPWP to expand beyond our coral sites. Intervals of a strengthened Asian monsoon and cooling in the southwestern IPWP during the mid-Holocene appear to correspond with a more positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like mean configuration across the tropical Indian Ocean, suggesting that the Asian monsoon–IOD interaction that exists at interannual time scales also persists over centennial to millennial scales. Associated mean changes in the Pacific ENSO modes may have also occurred during the mid-Holocene. The dynamic and inter-connected behaviour of the IPWP with tropical climate systems during the mid-Holocene highlights the fundamental importance of the warm pool region for understanding climate change throughout the tropics and beyond.     

Point defects and pre-dose requirements for sensitization of the 300°C TL peak in natural quartz

This paper discusses the structural features required to stimulate a strong thermoluminescence (TL) glow peak near 300°C in clear natural quartz. For that reason, fresh TL data taken from several specimens prepared from five single crystals with known impurity content are shown. The TL emission was measured with a test dose of 10 mGy of γ-rays in the readout intervals 50–160 and 160–320°C. The readings were carried out prior and after the administration of a pre-dose of 175 kGy of γ-rays followed by heat-treatments at 400°C. For each single specimen, the OH content and the population of inclusions were evaluated by infrared spectroscopy and optical microscopy, respectively. The darkening induced by high γ dose was evaluated by optical spectroscopy. It was observed that the absorption at 475 nm and TL responses decrease with increase of the OH. It was shown that both smoky darkening and TL signals were better explained in terms of Li/Al and Li/OH content ratios rather than the absolute values of aluminum and alkali concentrations. The sensitization with high γ dose and heating is essential to create and stabilize a class of defects sites with Li⁺ ions dislodged from [AlO₄/Li]⁰ and Li-dependent OH centers. It is suggested that the defect sites formed with Li⁺ act as electron traps during test dose irradiation, whereas electron-hole recombination occurs essentially at [AlO₄]⁰ centers during the TL output near 300°C.     

Placing racism in public health: a perspective from Aotearoa/New Zealand

This commentary reflects on Nancy Krieger’s thinking in light of the links between place, ‘race’ and public health from our vantage points as Maori (indigenous) and Pakeha (settler) researchers in Aotearoa New Zealand. We propose an addition to Krieger’s list of pathways through which racism impacts upon the health of indigenous peoples: the systematic alienation of indigenous lands and subsequent degradation of ecosystems that undermine traditional economies. We believe that this proposal, along with the forging of new community-based research partnerships, will increase the potency of Krieger’s challenge: to name and claim racism as a public health issue.