It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Copper stable isotopes as tracers of metal-sulphide segregation and fractional crystallisation processes on iron meteorite parent bodies

We report high precision Cu isotope data coupled with Cu concentration measurements for metal, troilite and silicate fractions separated from magmatic and non-magmatic iron meteorites, analysed for Fe isotopes (δ⁵⁷Fe; permil deviation in ⁵⁷Fe/⁵⁴Fe relative to the pure iron standard IRMM-014) in an earlier study (Williams et al., 2006). The Cu isotope compositions (δ⁶⁵Cu; permil deviation in ⁶⁵Cu/⁶³Cu relative to the pure copper standard NIST 976) of both metals (δ⁶⁵Cu_M) and sulphides (δ⁶⁵Cu_FeS) span much wider ranges (−9.30 to 0.99‰ and −8.90 to 0.63‰, respectively) than reported previously. Metal-troilite fractionation factors (Δ⁶⁵Cu_M-FeS = δ⁶⁵Cu_M − δ⁶⁵Cu_FeS) are variable, ranging from −0.07 to 5.28‰, and cannot be explained by equilibrium stable isotope fractionation coupled with either mixing or reservoir effects, i.e. differences in the relative proportions of metal and sulphide in the meteorites. Strong negative correlations exist between troilite Cu and Fe (δ⁵⁷Fe_FeS) isotope compositions and between metal-troilite Cu and Fe (Δ⁵⁷Fe_M-FeS) isotope fractionation factors, for both magmatic and non-magmatic irons, which suggests that similar processes control isotopic variations in both systems. Clear linear arrays between δ⁶⁵Cu_FeS and δ⁵⁷Fe_FeS and calculated Cu metal-sulphide partition coefficients (D_Cu = [Cu]_metal/[Cu]_FeS) are also present. A strong negative correlation exists between Δ⁵⁷Fe_M-FeS and D_Cu; a more diffuse positive array is defined by Δ⁶⁵Cu_M-FeS and D_Cu. The value of D_Cu can be used to approximate the degree of Cu concentration equilibrium as experimental studies constrain the range of D_Cu between Fe metal and FeS at equilibrium to be in the range of 0.05-0.2; D_Cu values for the magmatic and non-magmatic irons studied here range from 0.34 to 1.11 and from 0.04 to 0.87, respectively. The irons with low D_Cu values (closer to Cu concentration equilibrium) display the largest Δ⁵⁷Fe_M-FeS and the lowest Δ⁶⁵Cu_M-FeS values, whereas the converse is observed in the irons with large values D_Cu that deviate most from Cu concentration equilibrium. The magnitudes of Cu and Fe isotope fractionation between metal and FeS in the most equilibrated samples are similar: 0.25 and 0.32‰/amu, respectively. As proposed in an earlier study (Williams et al., 2006) the range in Δ⁵⁷Fe_M-FeS values can be explained by incomplete Fe isotope equilibrium between metal and sulphide during cooling, where the most rapidly-cooled samples are furthest from isotopic equilibrium and display the smallest Δ⁵⁷Fe_M-FeS and largest D_Cu values. The range in Δ⁶⁵Cu_M-FeS, however, reflects the combined effects of partial isotopic equilibrium overprinting an initial kinetic signature produced by the diffusion of Cu from metal into exsolving sulphides and the faster diffusion of the lighter isotope. In this scenario, newly-exsolved sulphides initially have low Cu contents (i.e. high D_Cu) and extremely light δ⁶⁵Cu_FeS values; with progressive equilibrium and fractional crystallisation the Cu contents of the sulphides increase as their isotopic composition becomes less extreme and closer to the metal value. The correlation between Δ⁶⁵Cu_M-FeS and Δ⁵⁷Fe_M-FeS is therefore a product of the superimposed effects of kinetic fractionation of Cu and incomplete equilibrium between metal and sulphide for both isotope systems during cooling. The correlations between Δ⁶⁵Cu_M-FeS and Δ⁵⁷Fe_M-FeS are defined by both magmatic and non-magmatic irons record fractional crystallisation and cooling of metallic melts on their respective parent bodies as sulphur and chalcophile elements become excluded from crystallised solid iron and concentrated in the residual melt. Fractional crystallisation processes at shallow levels have been implicated in the two main classes of models for the origin of the non-magmatic iron meteorites; at (i) shallow levels in impact melt models and (ii) at much deeper levels in models where the non-magmatic irons represent metallic melts that crystallised within the interior of a disrupted and re-aggregated parent body. The presence of non-magmatic irons with a range of Fe and Cu isotope compositions, some of which record near-complete isotopic equilibrium implies crystallisation at a range of cooling rates and depths, which is most consistent with cooling within the interior of a meteorite parent body. Our data therefore lend support to models where the non-magmatic irons are metallic melts that crystallised in the interior of re-aggregated, partially differentiated parent bodies.     

NN detectability in Pluto’s atmosphere

Based on the vapor pressure behavior of Pluto’s surface ices, Pluto’s atmosphere is expected to be predominantly composed of N₂ gas. Measurement of the N₂ isotopologue ¹⁵N/¹⁴N ratio within Pluto’s atmosphere would provide important clues to the evolution of Pluto’s atmosphere from the time of formation to its present state. The most straightforward way of determining the N₂ isotopologue ¹⁵N/¹⁴N ratio in Pluto’s atmosphere is via spectroscopic observation of the ¹⁴N¹⁵N gas species. Recent calculations of the 80–100 nm absorption behavior of the ¹⁴N₂ and ¹⁴N¹⁵N isotopologues by Heays et al. (Heays, A.N. et al. [2011]. J. Chem. Phys. 135, 244301), Lewis et al. (Lewis, B.R., Heays, A.N., Gibson, S.T., Lefebvre-Brion, H., Lefebvre, R. [2008]. J. Chem. Phys. 129, 164306); Lewis et al. (Lewis, B.R., Gibson, S.T., Zhang, W., Lefebvre-Brion, H., Robbe, J.-M. [2005]. J. Chem. Phys. 122, 144302), and Haverd et al. (Haverd, V.E., Lewis, B.R., Gibson, S.T., Stark, G. [2005]. J. Chem. Phys. 123, 214304) show that the peak magnitudes of the ¹⁴N₂ and ¹⁴N¹⁵N absorption bandhead cross-sections are similar, but the locations of the bandhead peaks are offset in wavelength by ∼0.05–0.1 nm. These offsets make the segregation of the ¹⁴N₂ and ¹⁴N¹⁵N absorption signatures possible. We use the most recent N₂ isotopologue absorption cross-section calculations and the atmospheric density profiles resulting from photochemical models developed by Krasnopolsky and Cruickshank (Krasnopolsky, V.A., Cruickshank, D.P. [1999]. J. Geophys. Res. 104, 21979–21996) to predict the level of solar light that will be transmitted through Pluto’s atmosphere as a function of altitude during a Pluto solar occultation. We characterize the detectability of the isotopic absorption signature per altitude assuming ¹⁴N¹⁵N concentrations ranging from 0.1% to 2% of the ¹⁴N₂ density and instrumental spectral resolutions ranging from 0.01 to 0.3 nm. Our simulations indicate that optical depth of unity is attained in the key ¹⁴N¹⁵N absorption bands located between 85 and 90 nm at altitudes ∼1100–1600 km above Pluto’s surface. Additionally, an ¹⁴N¹⁵N isotope absorption depth ∼4–15% is predicted for observations obtained at these altitudes at a spectral resolution of ∼0.2–0.3 nm, if the N₂ isotopologue ¹⁵N/¹⁴N percent ratio is comparable to the 0.37–0.6% ratio observed at Earth, Titan and Mars. If we presume that the predicted absorption depth must be at least 25% greater than the expected observational uncertainty, then it follows that a statistically significant detection of these signatures and constraint of the N₂ isotopologue ¹⁴N/¹⁵N ratio within Pluto’s atmosphere will be possible if the attainable observational signal-to noise (S/N) ratio is ?9. The New Horizons (NH) Mission will be able to obtain high S/N, 0.27–0.35 nm full-width half-max 80–100 nm spectral observations of Pluto using the Alice spectrograph. Based on the NH/Alice specifications we have simulated 0.3 nm spectral resolution solar occultation spectra for the 1100–1600 km altitude range, assuming 30 s integration times. These simulations indicate that NH/Alice will obtain spectral observations within this altitude range with a S/N ratio ∼25–50, and should be able to reliably detect the ¹⁴N¹⁵N gas absorption signature between 85 and 90 nm if the ¹⁴N¹⁵N concentration is ∼0.3% or greater. This, additionally, implies that the non-detection of the ¹⁴N¹⁵N species in the 1100–1600 km range by NH/Alice may be used to reliably establish an upper limit to the N₂ isotopologue ¹⁵N/¹⁴N ratio within Pluto’s atmosphere. Similar results may be derived from 0.2 to 0.3 nm spectral resolution observations of any other N₂-rich Solar System or exoplanet atmosphere, provided the observations are attained with similar S/N levels.     

Climate science in climate security scenarios

The climate is changing and this will have consequences across the globe, affecting all areas of the natural and human environment in complex ways. One tool for exploring the complex relationship between climate change and security is to use a scenariobased approach as means to develop plausible rather than probable narratives. This approach can explore the range of uncertainty, and help policymakers to visualise the potential consequences of climate change. Scenario methodology has been most comprehensively developed for use in business planning and there are some differences in the way scenarios work for climate security. The most notable is the fact that there is a physical modelling basis for climate projections. This means that the uncertainty range associated with at least this one aspect of the scenario can be systematically sampled. This paper reviews how scenarios have been used in the climate security literature to date, in particular in the grey literature. The integration of climate projections is explored in detail, as the main distinguishing feature of climate security scenarios over other scenario types. Few climate security scenarios have been developed to date, but all those included in this review, regardless of the differences in national conditions, regional climate change and potential responses, came to very similar conclusions. This was despite differences in the changes in climate and non-climate drivers, or differences in the scenario approach and audience. A more systematic and scientific approach to developing the scenario drivers and narratives is recommended, and successfully embedding changes in climate within the socio-economic context, through better integration of inter-disciplinary expertise, is critical.     

Geographical imaginaries: Articulating the values of geography

This paper explores the concept of ‘geographical imaginaries’ in New Zealand geography. It reflects on the genealogy of the concept and on the work it might perform in the world. At a time when the purpose and contribution of geography in schools is under question and the discipline is under severe strain at universities, we ask whether the idea of ‘geographical imaginaries’ offers a conceptual platform for demonstrating the potential for geography to offer meaning in the complex world of 21st‐century New Zealand and whether it will help teachers to foster geographic thought in classrooms. In short, we argue for the merits of working with the idea of geographical imaginaries in classrooms and for utilising it to interrogate accounts of the geographical gaze and its values. This, we argue, offers opportunities to catalyse geographical thought, highlight the potential of thinking geographically, and open up a thinking space in which geography teachers can examine their pedagogy and enhance the purpose of their work. This would provide a platform for building a more imaginative and more politically and culturally relevant geography at school.     

Effects of elevated CO2 on the reproduction of two calanoid copepods

Some planktonic groups suffer negative effects from ocean acidification (OA), although copepods might be less sensitive. We investigated the effect of predicted CO₂ levels (range 480–750 ppm), on egg production and hatching success of two copepod species, Centropages typicus and Temora longicornis. In these short-term incubations there was no significant effect of high CO₂ on these parameters. Additionally a very high CO₂ treatment, (CO₂ = 9830 ppm), representative of carbon capture and storage scenarios, resulted in a reduction of egg production rate and hatching success of C. typicus, but not T. longicornis. In conclusion, reproduction of C. typicus was more sensitive to acute elevated seawater CO₂ than that of T. longicornis, but neither species was affected by exposure to CO₂ levels predicted for the year 2100. The duration and seasonal timing of exposures to high pCO₂, however, might have a significant effect on the reproduction success of calanoid copepods.     

A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M _w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view.     

Ontologies of geographic information

This article explores the notion of a system of ontologies specifically designed for the needs of an information science. A framework for geographic information ontologies is outlined that focuses on geographic information constructs rather than on the direct representation of real-world entities or on linguistic terms. The framework takes the form of a generative hierarchy anchored by the notion of intentionality at one end and of a spatiotemporal field of potentially relevant information at the other. Two theoretical notions are used in the generation of the hierarchy. The first is the principle of semantic contraction, whereby, starting from a level of geographic information constructs specified so as to reflect user intentionality, semantically coherent domains of properties are removed over several steps until only the rudiments of a spatiotemporal information system are left. The second notion is that of object of discourse, which allows entities to be represented as the composites of geographic information constructs at the higher levels of the hierarchy, explicitly reflecting the connections between the purpose, function, appropriate internal constitution, and ensuing categorization of the entities represented. The framework's main contribution is thus twofold: first, it allows the notions of user purpose and object function to be directly built into geographic representations; second, it proposes a hierarchy of ontological levels that are linked by systematic semantic relations. Further, the framework presents an integrated view of object and field representations. It may also provide a novel perspective on a number of issues of ongoing interest in geographic information science.     

Impact of interacting bark structure and rainfall conditions on stemflow variability in a temperate beech-oak forest,central Germany

ABSTRACT

Trees concentrate rainfall to near-stem soils via stemflow. When canopy structures are organized appropriately, stemflow can even induce preferential flow through soils, transporting nutrients to biogeochemically active areas. Bark structure significantly affects stemflow, yet bark-stemflow studies are primarily qualitative. We used a LaserBark to compute bark microrelief (MR), ridge-to-furrow amplitude (R) and slope (S) metrics per American Society of Mechanical Engineering standards (ASME-B46.1–2009) for two morphologically contrasting species (Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech), Quercus robur L. (pendunculate oak)) under storm conditions with strong bark water storage capacity (BWSC) influence in central Germany. Smaller R and S for F. sylvatica significantly lowered BWSC, which strongly and inversely correlated to maximum funnelling ratios and permitted stemflow generation at lower rain magnitudes. Larger R and S values in Q. robur reduced funnelling, diminishing stemflow drainage for larger storms. Quercus robur funnelling and stemflow was more reliant on intermediate rain intensities and intermittency to maintain bark channel-dependent drainage pathways. Shelter provided by Q. robur’s ridged bark also appears to protect entrained water, lengthening mean intrastorm dry periods necessary to affect stemflow. Storm conditions where BWSC plays a major role in stemflow accounted for much of 2013’s rainfall at the nearest meteorological station (Wulferstedt).

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor not assigned