Geology of the Pedwardine district,Herefordshire and Powys

The stratigraphy of the Pedwardine inlier of Precambrian (Longmyndian), Tremadoc, and what are now shown to be upper Llandovery rocks is described. The inlier is surrounded by Silurian rocks, including upper Llandovery (two very small areas), Wenlock, Ludlow and Přídolí (Red Downton Formation). The Ludlow rocks provide a distal record of the mass movement recorded more fully in the Wigmore Rolls area to the east. The Pedwardine area lies along the Church Stretton Fault Zone. Though ill-exposed, it shows evidence of the history of faulting, including thrusting. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integrated UAS and LiDAR reveals the importance of land cover and flood magnitude on the formation of incipient chute holes and chute cutoff development

Meandering river sinuosity increases until the channel erodes into itself (neck cutoff) or forms a new channel over the floodplain (chute cutoff) and sinuosity is reduced. Unlike neck cutoff, which can be measured or modelled without considering overbank processes, chute cutoff must be at least partially controlled by channel-forming processes on the floodplain. Even though chute cutoff controls meandering river form, the processes that cause chute cutoff are not well understood. This study analyses the morphology of two incipient chute cutoffs along the East Fork White River, Indiana, USA, using high temporal and spatial resolution UAS-based LiDAR and aerial photography. LiDAR and aerial imagery obtained between 1998 and 2019 reveals that large scour holes formed in the centre of both chutes sometime after chute channel initiation. A larger analysis within the study watershed reveals that scour holes within incipient chutes can be stable or unstable, and tend to stabilize when the chute is colonized by native vegetation and forest. When the scour holes form in farmed floodplain, they enlarge rapidly after initial formation and contribute to complete chute cutoff. In addition, this study shows that the formation of scour holes can occur in response to common, relatively low-magnitude floods and that the amount of incipient chute erosion does not depend on peak flood magnitude. The role of scour holes in enlarging chute channels could be an important mechanism for chute channel evolution in meandering rivers. This study also confirms that understanding the relationships among flow, land cover, and cutoff morphology is substantially improved with on-demand remote sensing techniques like integrated UAS and LiDAR. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rates of rockwall slope erosion in the upper Bhagirathi catchment,Garhwal Himalaya

Rockwall slope erosion is defined for the upper Bhagirathi catchment using cosmogenic Beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) concentrations in sediment from medial moraines on Gangotri glacier. Beryllium-10 concentrations range from 1.1 ± 0.2 to 2.7 ± 0.3 × 10⁴ at/g SiO₂, yielding rockwall slope erosion rates from 2.4 ± 0.4 to 6.9 ± 1.9 mm/a. Slope erosion rates are likely to have varied over space and time and responded to shifts in climate, geomorphic and/or tectonic regime throughout the late Quaternary. Geomorphic and sedimentological analyses confirm that the moraines are predominately composed of rockfall and avalanche debris mobilized from steep relief rockwall slopes via periglacial weathering processes. The glacial rockwall slope erosion affects sediment flux and storage of snow and ice at the catchment head on diurnal to millennial timescales, and more broadly influences catchment configuration and relief, glacier dynamics and microclimates. The slope erosion rates exceed the averaged catchment-wide and exhumation rates of Bhagirathi and the Garhwal region on geomorphic timescales (10³−10⁵ years), supporting the view that erosion at the headwaters can outpace the wider catchment. The ¹⁰Be concentrations of medial moraine sediment for the upper Bhagirathi catchment and the catchments of Chhota Shigri in Lahul, northern India and Baltoro glacier in Central Karakoram, Pakistan show a tentative relationship between ¹⁰Be concentration and precipitation. As such there is more rapid glacial rockwall slope erosion in the monsoon-influenced Lesser and Greater Himalaya compared to the semi-arid interior of the orogen. Rockwall slope erosion in the three study areas, and more broadly across the northwest Himalaya is likely governed by individual catchment dynamics that vary across space and time. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct forecasting of reservoir performance using production data without history matching

The conventional paradigm for predicting future reservoir performance from existing production data involves the construction of reservoir models that match the historical data through iterative history matching. This is generally an expensive and difficult task and often results in models that do not accurately assess the uncertainty of the forecast. We propose an alternative re-formulation of the problem, in which the role of the reservoir model is reconsidered. Instead of using the model to match the historical production, and then forecasting, the model is used in combination with Monte Carlo sampling to establish a statistical relationship between the historical and forecast variables. The estimated relationship is then used in conjunction with the actual production data to produce a statistical forecast. This allows quantifying posterior uncertainty on the forecast variable without explicit inversion or history matching. The main rationale behind this is that the reservoir model is highly complex and even so, still remains a simplified representation of the actual subsurface. As statistical relationships can generally only be constructed in low dimensions, compression and dimension reduction of the reservoir models themselves would result in further oversimplification. Conversely, production data and forecast variables are time series data, which are simpler and much more applicable for dimension reduction techniques. We present a dimension reduction approach based on functional data analysis (FDA), and mixed principal component analysis (mixed PCA), followed by canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to maximize the linear correlation between the forecast and production variables. Using these transformed variables, it is then possible to apply linear Gaussian regression and estimate the statistical relationship between the forecast and historical variables. This relationship is used in combination with the actual observed historical data to estimate the posterior distribution of the forecast variable. Sampling from this posterior and reconstructing the corresponding forecast time series, allows assessing uncertainty on the forecast. This workflow will be demonstrated on a case based on a Libyan reservoir and compared with traditional history matching.     

Very slow erosion rates and landscape preservation across the southwestern slope of the Ladakh Range,India

Erosion rates are key to quantifying the timescales over which different topographic and geomorphic domains develop in mountain landscapes. Geomorphic and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) methods were used to determine erosion rates of the arid, tectonically quiescent Ladakh Range, northern India. Five different geomorphic domains are identified and erosion rates are determined for three of the domains using TCN ¹⁰Be concentrations. Along the range divide between 5600 and 5700 m above sea level (asl), bedrock tors in the periglacial domain are eroding at 5.0 ± 0.5 to 13.1 ± 1.2 meters per million years (m/m.y.)., principally by frost shattering. At lower elevation in the unglaciated domain, erosion rates for tributary catchments vary between 0.8 ± 0.1 and 2.0 ± 0.3 m/m.y. Bedrock along interfluvial ridge crests between 3900 and 5100 m asl that separate these tributary catchments yield erosion rates <0.7 ± 0.1 m/m.y. and the dominant form of bedrock erosion is chemical weathering and grusification. Erosion rates are fastest where glaciers conditioned hillslopes above 5100 m asl by over‐steepening slopes and glacial debris is being evacuated by the fluvial network. For range divide tors, the long‐term duration of the erosion rate is considered to be 40–120 ky. By evaluating measured ¹⁰Be concentrations in tors along a model ¹⁰Be production curve, an average of ~24 cm is lost instantaneously every ~40 ky. Small (<4 km²) unglaciated tributary catchments and their interfluve bedrock have received very little precipitation since ~300 ka and the long‐term duration of their erosion rates is 300–750 ky and >850 ky, respectively. These results highlight the persistence of very slow erosion in different geomorphic domains across the southwestern slope of the Ladakh Range, which on the scale of the orogen records spatial changes in the locus of deformation and the development of an orogenic rain shadow north of the Greater Himalaya. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Denudation and retreat of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil derived from in situ‐produced 10Be concentration in river sediment

The Serra do Mar escarpment, located along the southeastern coast of Brazil, is a high‐elevation passive margin escarpment. This escarpment evolved from the denudation of granites, migmatites and gneisses. The granites outcrop in the form of a ridge along the escarpment crest, due to its differential erosion (‘sugarloaf’ hills) from the surrounding lithologies. Several studies suggest that the passive margin escarpments are actively retreating toward the interior of the continent. However, no prior study has calculated the long‐term denudation rates of Serra do Mar to test this hypothesis. In this study, we measured the in situ‐produced ¹⁰Be concentration in fluvial sediments to quantify the catchment‐wide long‐term denudation rates of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil. We sampled the fluvial sediments from ten watersheds that drain both sides of the escarpment. The average long‐term denudation rate of the oceanic side is between 2.1‐ and 2.6‐fold higher than the rate of the continental side: 26.04 ± 1.88 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 15.8 ka^‐1 and 46.6 ka^‐1) and 11.10 ± 0.37 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 52.9 ka^‐1 and 85.4 ka^‐1), respectively. These rates indicate that the coastal base level is controlling the escarpment retreat toward the continental high lands, which is consistent with observations made at other high‐elevation passive margins around the globe. The results also demonstrate the differential erosion along the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil during the Quaternary, where drainages over granites had lower average denudation rates in comparison with those over migmatites and gneisses. Moreover, the results demonstrate that the ocean‐facing catchments have been eroded more intensely than those facing the continent. The results also reveal that drainage over the granites decreases the average denudation rates of the ocean‐facing catchments and the ‘sugarloaf’ hills therefore are natural barriers that slowly retreat once they are exhumed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Adjacent catchments with similar patterns of land use and climate have markedly different dissolved organic carbon concentration and runoff dynamics

Temporal patterns in specific runoff, dissolved organic carbon concentrations [DOC] and fluxes were examined during two periods: 1994–1997 (period 1) and 2007–2009 (period 2) in five adjacent tributary catchments of Lake Simcoe, the largest lake in southern Ontario, Canada. The catchments displayed similar patterns of land use change with increases in urbanization (5–16%) and forest cover (0.2–4%) and declines in agriculture (4–8%) between 1994 and 2008. Climate in the catchments was similar; temperature increased slightly, but no significant change in precipitation was observed. Despite similar pattern of climate and land use, runoff responses and tributary [DOC] were different across the catchments. Following a very dry year (i.e. 1999), runoff increased steadily until the end of record. We observed increased variability in tributary [DOC] and higher DOC exports in period 2. This led to ~10% increase in [DOC] and a 13% increase in flux between the two study periods. Between the two periods, [DOC] increased by 15% in spring and 25% in summer, whereas flux increased by 17% in spring and 48% in summer. [DOC] was consistently higher in the growing (summer + autumn) than the dormant (winter + spring, minus spring melt months) seasons, but no unique pattern or simple linear flow/concentrations relationships existed. This suggests complex spatial and temporal pattern to runoff controls on DOC and flow dynamics in adjacent catchments. We therefore caution against extrapolating from monitored to unmonitored catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.