Statistical framework for scale-up of dispersivity in multi-scale heterogeneous media

A hierarchical scale-up framework is formulated to study the scaling characteristics of reservoir attributes and input dispersivities at the transport modeling scale, where heterogeneity distribution exhibits both non-stationarity (trend) and sub-scale variability. The proposed method is flexible to handle heterogeneities occurring at multiple scales, without any explicit assumption regarding the multivariate distribution of the heterogeneity. This paper extends our previous work by incorporating the effects of non-stationarity into the modeling workflow. Rock property at a given location is modeled as a random variable, which is decomposed into the sum of a trend (available on the same resolution of the transport modeling scale) and a residual component (defined at a much smaller scale). First, to scale up the residual component to the transport modeling scale, the corresponding volume variance is computed; by sampling numerous sets of “conditioning data” via bootstrapping and constructing multiple realizations of the residual components at the transport modeling, uncertainty due to this scale-up process is captured. Next, to compute the input dispersivity at the transport modeling scale, a flow-based technique is adopted: multiple geostatistical realizations of the same physical size as the transport modeling scale are generated to describe the spatial heterogeneity below the modeling scale. Each realization is subjected to particle-tracking simulation. Effective longitudinal and transverse dispersivities are estimated by minimizing the difference in effluent history for each realization and that of an equivalent average medium. Probability distributions of effective dispersivities are established by aggregating results from all realizations. The results demonstrate that both large-scale non-stationarity and sub-scale variability are both contributing to anomalous non-Fickian behavior. In comparison with our previous work, which ignored large-scale non-stationarity, the non-Fickian characteristics observed in this study is dramatically more pronounced.     

Origin of Tertiary to Recent EM- and subduction-like chemical and isotopic signatures in Auca Mahuida region (37°–38°S) and other Patagonian plateau lavas

The alkaline volcanic rocks of the 1.8–0.9 Ma Auca Mahuida and post-mid-Pliocene Rio Colorado backarc volcanic fields east of the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone at ~37°–38°S have pronounced intraplate-like chemical signatures with some striking similarities to oceanic DM-EM1-like lavas of the south Atlantic Tristan da Cunha type. These backarc lavas are considered to have formed as a series of mantle batches typified by 4–7 % melting, with decompression melting initiating in a garnet-bearing mantle above a steepening subduction zone, and final equilibration occurring near the base of a ~65- to 70-km-thick lithosphere at temperatures of ~1,350–1,380 °C. Evolved Auca Mahuida mugearite to trachytic samples are best explained by crystal fractionation with limited mixing of partial melts of recently underplated basalts, in line with isotopic signatures that preclude significant radiogenic contamination in a preexisting refractory crust. Higher Ba/La and subtly higher La/Ta ratios than in nearby ~24–20 Ma primitive basalts or oceanic (OIB) lavas are attributed to the residual effects of slab fluids introduced during a shallow subduction episode recorded in the arc-like chemistry of the adjacent 7–4 Ma Chachahuén volcanic complex. Positive Sr, K and Ba spikes on mantle-normalized patterns of both primitive Auca Mahuida and ~24–20 Ma basalts, like those in EM-like OIB basalts, are attributed to mixing of continental lithosphere into the asthenosphere. In Patagonia, this mixing is suggested to have peaked as the South America continent accommodated to major late Oligocene plate convergence changes, as similar Sr, K and Ba spikes and DM-EM1 signatures are absent in ~50–30 Ma backarc lavas north of 51°S, and all of those south of 51°S. Introduction of an EM1-like component associated with lateral mantle flow of a Tristan da Cunha source is largely precluded by its Cretaceous age and distance to Patagonia.     

Decadal variations in a Venus general circulation model

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), a 3-dimensional Earth-based climate model, has been modified to simulate the dynamics of the Venus atmosphere. The most current finite volume version of CAM is used with Earth-related processes removed, parameters appropriate for Venus introduced, and some basic physics approximations adopted. A simplified Newtonian cooling approximation has been used for the radiation scheme. We use a high resolution (1° by 1° in latitude and longitude) to take account of small-scale dynamical processes that might be important on Venus. A Rayleigh friction approach is used at the lower boundary to represent surface drag, and a similar approach is implemented in the uppermost few model levels providing a ‘sponge layer’ to prevent wave reflection from the upper boundary. The simulations generate superrotation with wind velocities comparable to those measured in the Venus atmosphere by probes and around 50-60% of those measured by cloud tracking. At cloud heights and above the atmosphere is always superrotating with mid-latitude zonal jets that wax and wane on an approximate 10 year cycle. However, below the clouds, the zonal winds vary periodically on a decadal timescale between superrotation and subrotation. Both subrotating and superrotating mid-latitude jets are found in the approximate 40-60 km altitude range. The growth and decay of the sub-cloud level jets also occur on the decadal timescale. Though subrotating zonal winds are found below the clouds, the total angular momentum of the atmosphere is always in the sense of superrotation. The global relative angular momentum of the atmosphere oscillates with an amplitude of about 5% on the approximate 10 year timescale. Symmetric instability in the near surface equatorial atmosphere might be the source of the decadal oscillation in the atmospheric state. Analyses of angular momentum transport show that all the jets are built up by poleward transport by a meridional circulation while angular momentum is redistributed to lower latitudes primarily by transient eddies. Possible changes in the structure of Venus’ cloud level mid-latitude jets measured by Mariner 10, Pioneer Venus, and Venus Express suggest that a cyclic variation similar to that found in the model might occur in the real Venus atmosphere, although no subrotating winds below the cloud level have been observed to date. Venus’ atmosphere must be observed over multi-year timescales and below the clouds if we are to understand its dynamics.     

The making of Stars 'R' Us!

The team behind a successful project to broaden the understanding of astrochemistry – Serena Viti, Wendy Brown, Martin McCoustra, Helen Fraser, Nigel Mason and Robert Massey – recount how they went about it and what benefits resulted.     

Were Greek temples oriented towards aurorae?

Ioannis Liritzis and Helen Vassiliou assess the evidence that the Ancient Greeks saw the aurora borealis, and that it was a rare and special event, strongly enough associated with particular gods to build temples of unusual orientation.     

Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.     

EXPLORING SPATIAL FAMILIARITY*

Spatial familiarity is a natural language concept that has no well-defined technical interpretation. We explore here some possible dimensions of the concept, provide subjective measurements of the dimensions, and evaluate their independence. The four dimensions examined are locational knowledge, visual recognition, name identification, and interaction frequency. We suggest that both cognitive and behavioral dimensions are embedded in the concept of spatial familiarity and must be part of the meaning of the concept and of any attempt to make it operational.