The impact of epistemic uncertainty on an earthquake loss model

Models capable of estimating losses in future earthquakes are of fundamental importance for emergency planners, for the insurance and reinsurance industries, and for code drafters. Constructing a loss model for a city, region or country involves compiling databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, attenuation equations, building stock and infrastructure exposure, and vulnerability characteristics of the exposed inventory, all of which have large associated uncertainties. Many of these uncertainties can be classified as epistemic, implying—at least in theory—that they can be reduced by acquiring additional data or improved understanding of the physical processes. The effort and cost involved in refining the definition of each component of a loss model can be very large, for which reason it is useful to identify the relative impact on the calculated losses due to variations in these components. A mechanically sound displacement‐based approach to loss estimation is applied to a test case of buildings along the northern side of the Sea of Marmara in Turkey. Systematic variations of the parameters defining the demand (ground motion) and the capacity (vulnerability) are used to identify the relative impacts on the resulting losses, from which it is found that the influence of the epistemic uncertainty in the capacity is larger than that of the demand for a single earthquake scenario. Thus, the importance of earthquake loss models which allow the capacity parameters to be customized to the study area under consideration is highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Infrared spectroscopic investigation of hydroxyl in β-(Mg,Fe)2SiO4 and coexisting olivine: Implications for mantle evolution and dynamics

Wadsleyite (β-(Mg,Fe)₂SiO₄) is a major constituent of the Earth's transition zone and is known to accommodate OH. The portion of the transition zone between 400–550 km could be an important source or sink for hydroxyl in plumes and slabs intersecting this region. Micro-infrared spectroscopy has been carried out on the β-phase and coexisting metastable olivine synthesized in a multianvil apparatus at 14 GPa and 1550–1650 K under hydrous conditions. Single-crystal and polycrystal specimens of both phases were analyzed in the 1800–8500 cm^?1 frequency region to determine the speciation, abundances, and partitioning behavior of the hydrous components in coexisting β-phase and olivine. β-phase spectra consistently show three distinct OH bands at 3329, 3580, and 3615 cm^?1. OH concentrations range from 10000–65000 H/10⁶ Si. A strong positive correlation of grain size and extent of transformation with OH concentration in the β-phase indicates that grain-growth and transformation rates are enhanced in a hydrous environment. Olivine spectra are variable, but consistently show a prominent broad-band absorbance representing molecular H₂O, consistent with the infrared signature of the starting material. OH concentrations in olivine range from <300–1400 H/10⁶ Si. The highest OH concentrations measured for olivine and the β-phase may represent solubility limits, in which case the OH solubility ratio between these two phases is approximately 1∶40. Where both phases coexist and are undersaturated with OH, the partitioning ratio of OH between them is about 1∶100. The large solubility contrast between olivine and the β-phase suggests a mechanism for hydrating the transition zone via olivine carried down in subducting slabs. Plumes impinging on an OH-rich upper transition region could cause H₂ or H₂O to be released upon transformation of the β-phase to olivine, resulting in initiation of secondary upwellings. If dissolution of OH weakens the β-phase, and if OH is present in the mantle, the region between 400–550 km could be a zone of low viscosity.     

Prevalence and distribution of fecal indicator organisms in South Florida beach sand and preliminary assessment of health effects associated with beach sand exposure

Fecal indicator levels in nearshore waters of South Florida are routinely monitored to assess microbial contamination at recreational beaches. However, samples of sand from the surf zone and upper beach are not monitored which is surprising since sand may accumulate and harbor fecal-derived organisms. This study examined the prevalence of fecal indicator organisms in tidally-affected beach sand and in upper beach sand and compared these counts to levels in the water. Since indicator organisms were statistically elevated in sand relative to water, the study also considered the potential health risks associated with beach use and exposure to sand. Fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, enterococci, somatic coliphages, and F(+)-specific coliphages were enumerated from sand and water at three South Florida beaches (Ft. Lauderdale Beach, Hollywood Beach, and Hobie Beach) over a 2-year period. Bacteria were consistently more concentrated in 100g samples of beach sand (2-23 fold in wet sand and 30-460 fold in dry sand) compared to 100ml samples of water. Somatic coliphages were commonly recovered from both sand and water while F(+)-specific coliphages were less commonly detected. Seeding experiments revealed that a single specimen of gull feces significantly influenced enterococci levels in some 3.1m(2) of beach sand. Examination of beach sand on a micro-spatial scale demonstrated that the variation in enterococci density over short distances was considerable. Results of multiple linear regression analysis showed that the physical and chemical parameters monitored in this study could only minimally account for the variation observed in indicator densities. A pilot epidemiological study was conducted to examine whether the length of exposure to beach water and sand could be correlated with health risk. Logistic regression analysis results provided preliminary evidence that time spent in the wet sand and time spent in the water were associated with a dose-dependent increase in gastrointestinal illness.     

A multiproxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh,Northern Ireland: a critical examination of the link between bog surface wetness and solar variability

A proxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, is presented. The record spans the interval between 2850 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 1000 and chronological control is achieved through the use of tephrochronology and ¹⁴C dating, including a wiggle‐match on one section of the record. Palaeoclimatic inferences are based on a combination of a testate amoebae‐derived water table reconstruction, peat humification and plant macrofossil analyses. This multiproxy approach enables proxy‐specific effects to be identified. Major wet shifts are registered in the proxies at ca. 1510 cal. yr BC, 750 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 470. Smaller magnitude shifts to wetter conditions are also recorded at ca. 380 cal. yr BC, 150 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 180, and cal. yr AD 690. It is hypothesised that the wet shifts are not merely local events as they appear to be linked to wider climate deteriorations in northwest Europe. Harmonic analysis of the proxies illustrates statistically significant periodicities of 580, 423–373, 307 and 265 years that may be related to wider Holocene climate cycles. This paper illustrates how the timing of climate changes registered in peat profiles records can be precisely constrained using tephrochronology to examine possible climatic responses to solar forcing. Relying on interpolated chronologies with considerable dating uncertainty must be avoided if the climatic responses to forcing mechanisms are to be fully understood. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling flow resistance in vegetated streams: review and development of new theory

Aquatic macrophytes are often the dominant factor influencing flow conditions within the channels they occupy. Existing knowledge of how stream plants affect the flow is outlined, and the different scales at which vegetation resistance operates are proposed. Resistance is shown to be a function of the size of the plants, their structural properties, location in the channel, and the local flow conditions. Current models to calculate this composite resistance effect are assessed in the light of theoretical considerations of the nature of vegetation resistance. New theory is also presented, which demonstrates the non‐linear relationship between channel resistance and the proportion of the channel occupied by vegetation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deep-water carbonate concentrations in the southwest Pacific

We have compiled carbonate chemistry and sedimentary CaCO₃% data for the deep-waters (>1500 m water depth) of the southwest (SW) Pacific region. The complex topography in the SW Pacific influences the deep-water circulation and affects the carbonate ion concentration ([CO₃2−]), and the associated calcite saturation horizon (CSH, where ??_calcite=1). The Tasman Basin and the southeast (SE) New Zealand region have the deepest CSH at ∼3100 m, primarily influenced by middle and lower Circumpolar Deep Waters (m or lCPDW), while to the northeast of New Zealand the CSH is ∼2800 m, due to the corrosive influence of the old North Pacific deep waters (NPDW) on the upper CPDW (uCPDW). The carbonate compensation depth (CCD; defined by a sedimentary CaCO₃ content of <20%), also varies between the basins in the SW Pacific. The CCD is ∼4600 m to the SE New Zealand, but only ∼4000 m to the NE New Zealand. The CaCO₃ content of the sediment, however, can be influenced by a number of different factors other than dissolution; therefore, we suggest using the water chemistry to estimate the CCD. The depth difference between the CSH and CCD (??Z_CSH−CCD), however, varies considerably in this region and globally. The global ??Z_CSH−CCD appears to expand with increase in age of the deep-water, resulting from a shoaling of the CSH. In contrast the depth of the chemical lysocline (??_calcite=0.8) is less variable globally and is relatively similar, or close, to the CCD determined from the sedimentary CaCO₃%. Geochemical definitions of the CCD, however, cannot be used to determine changes in the paleo-CCD. For the given range of factors that influence the sedimentary CaCO₃%, an independent dissolution proxy, such as the foraminifera fragmentation % (>40%=foraminiferal lysocline) is required to define a depth where significant CaCO₃ dissolution has occurred back through time. The current foraminiferal lysocline for the SW Pacific region ranges from 3100-3500 m, which is predictably just slightly deeper than the CSH. This compilation of sediment and water chemistry data provides a CaCO₃ dataset for the present SW Pacific for comparison with glacial/interglacial CaCO₃ variations in deep-water sediment cores, and to monitor future changes in [CO₃2−] and dissolution of sedimentary CaCO₃ resulting from increasing anthropogenic CO₂.     

The genesis of basaltic magmas

This paper reports the results of a detailed experimental investigation of fractionation of natural basaltic compositions under conditions of high pressure and high temperature. A single stage, piston-cylinder apparatus has been used in the pressure range up to 27 kb and at temperatures up to 1500° C to study the melting behaviour of several basaltic compositions. The compositions chosen are olivine-rich (20% or more normative olivine) and include olivine tholeiite (12% normative hypersthene), olivine basalt (1% normative hypersthene) alkali olivine basalt (2% normative nepheline) and picrite (3% normative hypersthene). The liquidus phases of the olivine tholeiite and olivine basalt are olivine at 1 Atmosphere, 4.5 kb and 9 kb, orthopyroxene at 13.5 and 18 kb, clinopyroxene at 22.5 kb and garnet at 27 kb. In the alkali olivine basalt composition, the liquidus phases are olivine at 1 Atmosphere and 9 kb, orthopyroxene with clinopyroxene at 13.5 kb, clinopyroxene at 18 kb and garnet at 27 kb. The sequence of appearance of phases below the liquidus has also been studied in detail. The electron probe micro-analyser has been used to make partial quantitative analyses of olivines, orthopyroxenes, clinopyroxenes and garnets which have crystallized at high pressure.These experimental and analytical results are used to determine the directions of fractionation of basaltic magmas during crystallization over a wide range of pressures. At pressures corresponding to depths of 35–70 km separation of aluminous enstatite from olivine tholeiite magma produces a direct fractionation trend from olivine tholeiites through olivine basalts to alkali olivine basalts. Co-precipitation of sub-calcic, aluminous clinopyroxene with the orthopyroxene in the more undersaturated compositions of this sequence produces derivative liquids of basanite type. Magmas of alkali olivine basalt and basanite type represent the lower temperature liquids derived by approximately 30% crystallization of olivine-rich tholeiite at 35–70 km depth. At depths of about 30 km, fractionation of olivine-rich tholeiite with separation of both olivine and low-alumina enstatite, joined at lower temperatures by sub-calcic clinopyroxene, leads to derivative liquids with relatively constant SiO₂ (48 to 50%) increasingly high Al₂O₃ (15–17%) contents and retaining olivine + hypersthene normative chemistry (5–15% normative olivine). These have the composition of typical high-alumina olivine tholeiites. The effects of low pressure fractionation may be superimposed on magma compositions derived from various depths within the mantle. These lead to divergence of the alkali olivine basalt and tholeiitic series but convergence of both the low-alumina and high-alumina tholeiites towards quartz tholeiite derivative liquids.The general problem of derivation of basaltic magmas from a mantle of peridotitic composition is discussed in some detail. Magmas are considered to be a consequence of partial melting but the composition of a magma is determined not by the depth of partial melting but by the depth at which magma segregation from residual crystals occurs. Magma generation from parental peridotite (pyrolite) at depths up to 100 km involves liquid-crystal equilibria between basaltic liquids and olivine + aluminous pyroxenes and does not involve garnet. At 35–70 km depth, basaltic liquids segregating from a pyrolite mantle will be of alkali olivine basalt type with about 20% partial melting but with increasing degrees of partial melting, liquids will change to olivine-rich tholeiite type with about 30% melting. If the depth of magma segregation is about 30 km, then magmas produced by 20–25% partial melting will be of high-alumina olivine tholeiite type, similar to the oceanic tholeiites occurring on the sea floor along the mid-oceanic ridges.Hypotheses of magma fractionation and generation by partial melting are considered in relation to the abundances and ratios of trace elements and in relation to isotopic abundance data on natural basalts. It is shown that there is a group of elements (including K, Ti, P, U, Th, Ba, Rb, Sr, Cs, Zr, Hf and the rare-earth elements) which show enrichment factors in alkali olivine basalts and in some tholeiites, which are inconsistent with simple crystal fractionation relationships between the magma types. This group of elements has been called incompatible elements referring to their inability to substitute to any appreciable extent in the major minerals of the upper mantle (olivine, aluminous pyroxenes). Because of the lack of temperature contrast between magma and wall-rock for a body of magma near to its depth of segregation in the mantle, cooling of the magma involves complementary processes of reaction with the wall-rook, including selective melting and extraction of the lowest melting fraction. The incompatible elements are probably highly concentrated in the lowest melting fraction of the pyrolite. The production of large overall enrichments in incompatible elements in a magma by reaction with and highly selective sampling of large volumes of mantle wall-rock during slow ascent of a magma is considered to be a normal, complementary process to crystal fractionation in the mantle. This process has been called wall-rock reaction. Magma generation in the mantle is rarely a simple, closed-system partial melting process and the isotopic abundances and incompatible element abundances of a basalt as observed at the earth's surface may be largely determined by the degree of reaction with the mantle or lower crustal wall-rocks and bear little relation to the abundances and ratios of the original parental mantle material (pyrolite).Occurrences of cognate xenoliths and xenocrysts in basalts are considered in relation to the experimental data on liquid-crystal equilibria at high pressure. It is inferred that the lherzolite nodules largely represent residual material after extraction of alkali olivine basalt from mantle pyrolite or pyrolite which has been selectively depleted in incompatible elements by wall-rock reaction processes. Lherzolite nodules included in tholeiitic magmas would melt to a relatively large extent and disintegrate, but would have a largely refractory character if included in alkali olivine basalt magma. Other examples of xenocrystal material in basalts are shown to be probable liquidus crystals or accumulates at high pressure from basaltic magma and provide a useful link between the experimental study and natural processes.