CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and non-CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> radiative forcings in climate projections for twenty-first century mitigation scenarios

Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC carbon cycle–climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed to forcings using an impulse–response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO₂ to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO₂ mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO₂, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus, non-CO₂ mitigation is limited and net CO₂ emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO₂ concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century.     

Applying size segregation to relate the surrounding aerosol pollution to its source

Size segregated sampling of aerosol particles at the coal-fired power station Šoštanj, Slovenia was performed by a newly developed system. In addition, simultaneous sampling of particles was performed at two locations, Velenje and Veliki vrh, chosen on the basis of long term monitoring of SO₂ in the influential area of power plant. The signature of the power plant (e.g. characteristic size distributions of some typical trace elements) was identified. For elements, like As, Mo, Cd and Ga, which are typical for coal combustion, the highest concentrations were observed in the size range between 1 and 4 μm. For Se and sometimes for Ga two modes were identified, first between 0.1 and 0.5 μm and second between 1 and 4 μm. Ratios between the average concentrations of selected elements in fine and coarse particles collected at Veliki vrh (the most influenced location) and Velenje (usually not influenced by the thermo power station) were significantly higher than 1 in the case of Mo and Se for coarse and fine size range, while for As the ratio was higher than 1 for the coarse fraction. Consequently, Mo, Se and As were found as the most important tracers for the emissions from the investigated source. On the basis of the ratios between the concentrations of elements measured in particles at low and high SO₂ concentrations at Veliki vrh, Cd was shown to be a typical tracer as well. Our results definitely showed that size segregated measurements of particles at the source and in the influenced area give more precise information on the influence of source to the surrounding region. It was found that patterns of size distributions for typical trace elements observed at the source are found also in the influenced area, i.e. Veliki vrh.     

Preface

Climate change is one of the most challenging issues faced by human beings. Although many remarkable achievements have been made in climate change research,there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in     

Parameterization of Sheared Convective Entrainment in the First-Order Jump Model: Evaluation Through Large-Eddy Simulation

In this note, two different approaches are used to estimate the entrainment-flux to surface-flux ratio for a sheared convective boundary layer (CBL); both are derived under the framework of the first-order jump model (FOM). That suggested by Sun and Wang (SW approach) has the advantage that there is no empirical constant included, though the dynamics are described in an implicit manner. The second, which was proposed by Kim et al. and Pino et al. (KP approach), explicitly characterizes the dynamics of the sheared entrainment, but uncertainties are induced through the empirical constants. Their performances in parameterizing the CBL growth rate are compared and discussed, and a new value of the parameter A ₃ in the KP approach is suggested. Large-eddy simulation (LES) data are employed to test both approaches: simulations are conducted for the CBL growing under varying conditions of surface roughness, free-atmospheric stratification, and wind shear, and data used when the turbulence is in steady state. The predicted entrainment rates in each case are tested against the LES data. The results show that the SW approach describes the evolution of the sheared CBL quite well, and the KP approach also reproduces the growth of the CBL reasonably, so long as the value of A ₃ is modified to 0.6.     

The influence of tropical Pacific forcing on the Arctic Oscillation

The potential role of tropical Pacific forcing in driving the seasonal variability of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is explored using both observational data and a simple general circulation model (SGCM). A lead–lag regression technique is first applied to the monthly averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and the AO index. The AO maximum is found to be related to a negative SST anomaly over the tropical Pacific three months earlier. A singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is then performed on the tropical Pacific SST and the sea level pressure (SLP) over the Northern Hemisphere. An AO-like atmospheric pattern and its associated SST appear as the second pair of SVD modes. Ensemble integrations are carried out with the SGCM to test the atmospheric response to different tropical Pacific forcings. The atmospheric response to the linear fit of the model’s empirical forcing associated with the SST variability in the second SVD modes strongly projects onto the AO. Idealized thermal forcings are then designed based on the regression of the seasonally averaged tropical Pacific precipitation against the AO index. Results indicate that forcing anomalies over the western tropical Pacific are more effective in generating an AO-like response while those over the eastern tropical Pacific tend to produce a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like response. The physical mechanisms responsible for the energy transport from the tropical Pacific to the extratropical North Atlantic are investigated using wave activity flux and vorticity forcing formalisms. The energy from the western tropical Pacific forcing tends to propagate zonally to the North Atlantic because of the jet stream waveguide effect while the transport of the energy from the eastern tropical Pacific forcing mostly concentrates over the PNA area. The linearized SGCM results show that nonlinear processes are involved in the generation of the forced AO-like pattern.     

上海市月降尘量与气象因子间关系研究

本文利用上海市1993～2003年月降尘量和同期气象资料，运用统计学方法和图表说明、物理解释相结合的方法，研究了降尘量的年、月际变化，表明：降尘量的年际变化存在明显的下降趋势；降尘量月际变化的高值出现在春、夏季月份，与北方燃煤量大的城市差别较大。同时更为详细地研究了降尘量和气象条件之间的关系，结果表明：风向、风速频率和雨日数是影响降尘量的主要气象因子，而温度、湿度对降尘量没有明显的影响，并简要说明了影响机制，解释了年、月际变化。     

青藏高原近地面层微气象学特征

利用1998年5月-7月在改则、当雄和昌都三测站获得的近地面层气象要素变化的观测资料，分析了青藏高原近地面层风速、温度和湿度日变化特征及廓线规律，发现高原近地面层微气象学特征具有自己的特点；同时还讨论了高原近地面层白天出现的逆湿现象。     

一类广义Hamilton系统的辛格式

通过引人泊松括号，分析了无限维Hamilton的性质，并将其推广到广义Hamilton系统，且从理论和实用角度讨论了这类广义Hamilton系统的辛格式构造问题，从而为辛几何算法在一般的时间发展方程的数值求解提供新的具体途径。     

High-Resolution Vertical Profile Measurements for Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapour Concentrations Within and Above Crop Canopies

We present a portable elevator-based facility for measuring \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), water vapour, temperature and wind-speed profiles between the soil surface and the atmospheric surface layer above crop canopies. The end of a tube connected to a closed-path gas analyzer is continuously moved up and down over the profile range (in our case, approximately 2 m) while concentrations are logged at a frequency of \(20 \hbox { s}^{-1}\). Using campaign measurements in winter wheat, winter barley and a catch crop mixture (spring 2015 to autumn 2016) during different stages of crop development and different times of the day, we demonstrate a simple approach to correct for time lags, and the resulting profiles of 30-min mean mole fractions of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and \(\hbox {H}_{2}\hbox {O}\) over height increments of 0.025 m. The profiles clearly show the effects of soil respiration and photosynthetic carbon assimilation, varying both during the diurnal cycle and during the growing season. Profiles of temperature and wind speed are based on a ventilated finewire thermocouple and a hot-wire anemometer, respectively. Measurements over bare soil and a short plant canopy were analyzed in the framework of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to check the validity of the measurements and raw-data-processing approach. Derived fluxes of \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\), latent and sensible heat and momentum show good agreement with eddy-covariance measurements.     

Global carbon budgets and the viability of new fossil fuel projects

Policy-makers of some fossil fuel-endowed countries wish to know if a given fossil fuel supply project is consistent with the global carbon budget that would prevent a 2 °C temperature rise. But while some studies have identified fossil fuel reserves that are inconsistent with the 2 °C carbon budget, they have not shown the effect on fossil fuel production costs and market prices. Focusing on oil, we develop an oil pricing and climate test model to which we apply future carbon prices and oil consumption from several global energy-economy-emissions models that simulate the energy supply and demand effects of the 2 °C carbon budget. Our oil price model includes key oil market attributes, notably upper and lower market share boundaries for different oil producer categories, such as OPEC. Using the distribution of the global model results as an indicator of uncertainty about future carbon prices and oil demand, we estimate the probability that a new investment of a given oil source category would be economically viable under the 2 °C carbon budget. In our case study of Canada’s oil sands, we find a less than 5% probability that oil sands investments, and therefore new oil pipelines, would be economically viable over the next three decades under the 2 °C carbon budget. Our sensitivity analysis finds that if OPEC agreed to reduce its market share to 30% by 2045, a significant reduction from its steady 40–45% of the past 25 years, then the probability of viable oil sands expansion rises to 30%.