Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact research in West Africa. Part I: model output statistics for monthly data

Rainfall represents an important factor in agriculture and food security, particularly, in the low latitudes. Climatological and hydrological studies which attempt to diagnose the hydrological cycle, require high-quality precipitation data. In West Africa, like in many parts of the world, the density of observational data is low and climate models are needed in order to perform homogeneous and complete data sets. However, climate models tend to produce systematic errors, especially, in terms of rainfall and cloud processes, which are usually approximated by physical parameterizations. In this study, a 25-year climatology of monthly precipitation in West Africa is presented, derived from a regional climate model simulation, and evaluated with respect to observational data. It is found that the model systematically underestimates the rainfall amount and variability and does not capture some details of the seasonal cycle in sub-Saharan West Africa. Thus, in its present form the precipitation climatology is not appropriate to draw a realistic picture of the hydrological cycle in West Africa nor to serve as input data for impact research. Therefore, a statistical model is developed in order to adjust the simulated rainfall data to the characteristics of observed precipitation. Assuming that the regional climate model is much more reliable in terms of atmospheric circulation and thermodynamics, model output statistics is used to correct simulated rainfall by means of other simulated parameters of the near-surface climate like temperature, sea level pressure and wind components. Monthly data is adjusted by a cross-validated multiple regression model. The resulting adjusted rainfall climatology reveals a substantial improvement in terms of the model deficiencies mentioned above. In part II of this publication, the characteristics of simulated daily precipitation is adapted to station data by applying a weather generator. Once the postprocessing approach is trained, it can be extrapolated to simulation periods, for which observational data do not exist like for instance future climate.     

Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact research in West Africa. Part II: A weather generator for daily data

Data from global and regional climate models refer to grid cells and, hence, are basically different from station data. This particularly holds for variables with enhanced spatio-temporal variability like precipitation. On the other hand, many applications like for instance hydrological models require atmospheric data with the statistical characteristics of station data. Here, we present a dynamical-statistical tool to construct virtual station data based on regional climate model output for tropical West Africa. This weather generator (WEGE) incorporates daily gridded rainfall from the model, an orographic term and a stochastic term, accounting for the chaotic spatial distribution of local rain events within a model grid box. In addition, the simulated probability density function of daily precipitation is adjusted to available station data in Benin. It is also assured that the generated data are still consistent with other model parameters like cloudiness and atmospheric circulation. The resulting virtual station data are in excellent agreement with various observed characteristics which are not explicitly addressed by the WEGE algorithm. This holds for the mean daily rainfall intensity and variability, the relative number of rainless days and the scaling of precipitation in time. The data set has already been used successfully for various climate impact studies in Benin.     

Timing of emplacement and deformation of the Tia Granodiorite,southern New England Fold Belt,NSW: Implications for the metamorphic history

The Tia Granodiorite, a Hillgrove Suite pluton in the southern New England Fold Belt, intruded complexly deformed metasediment and metabasite belonging to the Tia Complex, which at the time of intrusion had already been affected by two deformation events at low‐T moderate‐P metamorphic conditions and two overprinting deformation events at high‐T low‐P metamorphic conditions. Emplacement took place during D₅ thrusting associated with limited uplift as low‐P amphibolite facies metamorphism prevailed. Large‐scale warping during D₆ was followed by a second penetrative thrusting event (D₇) that caused further uplift and was initiated under lower amphibolite facies conditions.

The granodiorite has been dated at ～ 300 Ma using magmatic zircon, an age which is thought to approximate the emplacement age and thus D₅. Biotite grains associated with D₇ uplift yield a Rb/Sr age of 264±1.3 Ma. D₅ and D₇ appear to have formed during one extended high‐T metamorphic event because intervening retrogression is lacking in spite of extensive hydrous fluxing, as indicated by numerous syn‐D₆ quartz veins. This thermal event coincided with the opening of the extensional Permian basins.     

Mediterranean climate extremes in synoptic downscaling assessments

The behaviour of precipitation and maximum temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area under climate change conditions is analysed in the present study. In this context, the ability of synoptic downscaling techniques in combination with extreme value statistics for dealing with extremes is investigated. Analyses are based upon a set of long-term station time series in the whole Mediterranean area. At first, a station-specific ensemble approach for model validation was developed which includes (1) the downscaling of daily precipitation and maximum temperature values from the large-scale atmospheric circulation via analogue method and (2) the fitting of extremes by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Model uncertainties are quantified as confidence intervals derived from the ensemble distributions of GPD-related return values and described by a new metric called “ratio of overlapping”. Model performance for extreme precipitation is highest in winter, whereas the best models for maximum temperature extremes are set up in autumn. Valid models are applied to a 30-year period at the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) by means of ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model data for IPCC SRES B1 scenario. The most distinctive future changes are observed in autumn in terms of a strong reduction of precipitation extremes in Northwest Iberia and the Northern Central Mediterranean area as well as a simultaneous distinct increase of maximum temperature extremes in Southwestern Iberia and the Central and Southeastern Mediterranean regions. These signals are checked for changes in the underlying dynamical processes using extreme-related circulation classifications. The most important finding connected to future changes of precipitation extremes in the Northwestern Mediterranean area is a reduction of southerly displaced deep North Atlantic cyclones in 2070–2099 as associated with a strengthened North Atlantic Oscillation. Thus, the here estimated future changes of extreme precipitation are in line with the discourse about the influence of North Atlantic circulation variability on the changing climate in Europe.     

Upper Mantle Seismic Structure Beneath Southern Africa: Constraints on the Buoyancy Supporting the African Superswell

We present new one-dimensional SH-wave velocity models of the upper mantle beneath the Kalahari craton in southern Africa obtained from waveform inversion of regional seismograms from an Mw = 5.9 earthquake located near Lake Tanganyika recorded on broadband seismic stations deployed during the 1997–1999 Southern African Seismic Experiment. The velocity in the lithosphere beneath the Kalahari craton is similar to that of other shields, and there is little evidence for a significant low velocity zone beneath the lithosphere. The lower part of the lithosphere, from 110 to 220 km depth, is slightly slower than beneath other shields, possibly due to higher temperatures or a decrease in Mg number (Mg#). If the slower velocities are caused by a thermal anomaly, then slightly less than half of the unusually high elevation of the Kalahari craton can be explained by shallow buoyancy from a hot lithosphere. However, a decrease in the Mg# of the lower lithosphere would increase the density and counteract the buoyancy effect of the higher temperatures. We obtain a thickness of 250 ± 30 km for the mantle transition zone, which is similar to the global average, but the velocity gradient between the 410 and 660 km discontinuities is less steep than in global models, such as PREM and IASP91. We also obtain velocity jumps of between 0.16 ± 0.1 and 0.21 ± 0.1 km/s across the 410 km discontinuity. Our results suggest that there may be a thermal or chemical anomaly in the mantle transition zone, or alternatively that the shear wave velocity structure of the transition zone in global reference models needs to be refined. Overall, our seismic models provide little support for an upper mantle source of buoyancy for the unusually high elevation of the Kalahari craton, and hence the southern African portion of the African Superswell.     

Tectonic stacking in an Archaean greenstone sequence and its control on gold mineralisation at Dalny Mine, Zimbabwe

The pattern of Au reefs at Dalny Mine and its satellite mines in the Chakari area of central Zimbabwe closely mimics an anastomosing network of narrow (< 5 m) shear zones characterised by highly strained silicified schist and graphitic shale horizons. These shears predated mineralisation and accommodated movements resulting in a duplex geometry of complexly stacked, lensoidal blocks of felsic and mafic greenstones, possibly reflecting thin-skinned processes early during the development of the Midlands Greenstone Belt. During mineralisation repeated reactivation of, and (fluid-pressure driven) dilation along these early shears resulted in the current distribution of Au reefs. The scale and orientation of the fault blocks in the early tectonic stack controls the size and spacing of the later Au reefs, explains the anomalous orientation of some reefs in the area and eliminates the need for complicated explanations involving multiple post-mineralisation-faults.Geometries like those at Dalny Mine could control a number of Au deposits in Zimbabwe, especially those that contain bifurcarting siliceous schist and black shale bands. Duplex geometries could have resulted from a number of processes including thin-skinned thrusting or strike-slip movements, although the first interpretation is preferred. The presence of imbricate stacks at Dalny implies that the stratigraphy of the thick greenstone succession may have resulted partly from tectonic processes.     

Crust–mantle decoupling and the growth of the Archaean Zimbabwe craton

Based on the Zimbabwe craton, it is suggested that, during the Archaean, full decoupling between a strong upper crust and a strong upper mantle across a weak detachment zone at the Moho allowed the independent development of crustal and mantle geometries in response to lithospheric shortening. This is an effective way to explain the field observations made in the Zimbabwe craton, which suggest a late-Archaean interplay between lateral accretionary processes through low angle thrust stacking and underplating and deep seated lineament zones with a possible mantle origin. The lineament zones play an important role in the localisation of mineral deposits such as base metals, gold, and possibly diamonds. Thickening of the mantle lithosphere occurred independently from the crust, through early Archaean melt segregation and/or lithospheric underplating.     

A Pan-African core complex in the Sinai,Egypt

In the late Precambrian history of the Wadi Kid area in the Sinai, Egypt, two deformation phases are clearly recognized. The first phase, D₁ (pre-620 Ma), produced a steep regional foliation, axial planar to upright F₁ folds, in rocks of a lower-greenschist grade. This compressional phase of deformation is interpreted in terms of subduction in an island-arc setting. The second phase, D₁ (post-620 Ma), is mainly expressed by the widespread development of sub-horizontal mylonitic zones with a total thickness of 1.5 km. Shear sense indicators give a consistent regional transport direction to the northwest, with local indications of reversal to the southeast. This event is associated with regional LP/HT metamorphism, indicative of high thermal gradients. Because of the LP/HT metamorphism, the change in geochemical nature of the granitoids, and the orientation of the dykes, we interpret the mylonitic zones as low-angle normal shear zones related to core-complex development during an extensional event with the transport reversal being induced by doming. We postulate that orogenic collapse was responsible for the transition from the D₁ compressional phase to the D₁ extensional phase.     

High level and low level plagiogranites from the nicoya ophiolite complex,Costa Rica,Central America

Two suites of plagiogranitic rocks within the oceanic crust of the Jurassic-Cretaceous ophiolitic Nicoya complex are distinguished. High level plagiogranites (HLP) crop out at the top of the cumulate sequence in the northwestern part of the Nicoya peninsula. They are associated with iron-rich dolerites and noncumulus gabbros. Based on field relationships and geochemical characteristics (e.g. enrichment in REE and HFS elements) the origin of these rocks is explained in terms of a two stage model of fractional crystallization and filter pressing. The first stage comprises the formation of tholeiitic Fe-rich melt and a highly differentiated crystal-melt mush. The second stage is characterized by filter pressing of plagiogranitic interstitial magma. Fe-dolerites form the residual rocks. Crystal fractionation of this plagiogranitic magma is due to the formation of a rather complete series of siliceous rocks.The geochemically different low level plagiogranites (LLP) are restricted to the lowest part of the cumulate ophiolitic sequence of the Lower Nicoya complex. These rocks occur as small dikes or isolated veins within cumulus gabbros. There is some evidence of strong depletion in REE and HFS elements, high silica, and low total iron in these rocks.The samples analysed probably represent a further fractionation series of acid igneous rocks in the Lower Nicoya Complex. The geochemical features and especially the association of LLP with cumulus gabbros and amphibolites may be consistent with a genetic model of partial melting of the surrounding gabbros in the hornblende stability field during a secondary thermal event, which possibly represents the formation of an intraoceanic primitive island arc between the Caribbean and the Pacific in the Upper Cretaceous. Thus the LLP and the possibly residual amphibolites are not necessarily comagmatic with regard to the remaining oceanic igneous rocks of the Lower Nicoya Complex.

---

Zusammenfassung Im Unteren Nicoya-Komplex, einer als jurassisch-kretazische Ozeankruste gedeuteten Ophiolith-Sequenz, treten in zwei Stockwerken intermediäre und saure Magmatite auf: Im obersten Bereich der kumulaten Sequenz kommen High Level-Plagiogranite (HLP) vor, die eng mit Fe-reichen Doleriten vergesellschaftet sind. Diese Vorkommen sind immer an Intrusionen von Gabbros gebunden. Low Level-Plagiogranite (LLP) treten an der Basis dieser Sequenz innerhalb kumulater Gabbros zusammen mit Amphiboliten auf, ohne jedoch mit Fe-Doleriten assoziiert sein.Die Genese dieser Gesteine wird an verschiedenen Modellen diskutiert, wobei die High Level-Plagiogranite auf Grund von Geländebefunden und geochemischen Merkmalen (z. B. hohe SE- und HFS-Elementkonzentrationen) durch ein zweistufiges Modell aus fraktionierter Kristallisationsdifferentiation und Filterpressung erklärt werden. Die erste Stufe beinhaltet die Entwicklung von differenzierten Fe-reichen Schmelzen in einem tholeiitischen Fraktionierungstrend. In einem späten Stadium bildet sich ein Gemisch aus Festphasen und intermediärer, plagiogranitischer Restschmelze. Die zweite Stufe beschreibt im Zusammenhang mit dem mechanischen Auspressen dieser Schmelzen in unterschiedlichen Differentiationsstadien die Entstehung separater Plagiogranitschmelzen und die Deutung der Fe-Dolerite als Residualgesteine. Durch weitere Fraktionierungsprozesse in der Plagiogranitschmelze entwickeln sich danach in einer kontinuierlichen Differentiationsreihe zunehmend saure Plagiogranite.Die Low Level-Plagiogranite weisen demgegenüber grundsätzlich verschiedene Haupt- und Spurenelementcharakteristiken auf. Sie tendieren zu höheren SiO₂- und geringeren Fe-Konzentrationen. Soweit aus den wenigen bisher vorliegenden Daten hervorgeht, sind sie verglichen mit den HLP deutlich an HFS-Elementen und Seltenen Erden verarmt. Die chemische Variabilität der LLP kennzeichnet wahrscheinlich eine weitere Fraktionierungsreihe saurer Magmatite im Unteren Nicoya-Komplex mit im Laufe der Differentiation steigenden HFS- und SEE-Konzentrationen. Wenig differenzierte LLP sind im Gegensatz zu der Differentiationsreihe der HLP nicht in den analysierten Proben repräsentiert, so da\ die Interpretation ihrer Genese teilweise spekulativ bleibt. Dennoch passen der Chemismus und insbesondere das geologische Umfeld zum genetischen Modell einer Bildung saurer plagiogranitischer Schmelzen durch einen sekundären, partiellen Aufschmelzungsproze\ der umgebenden Gabbros innerhalb des Hornblende-Stabilitätsfeldes im Zuge eines weiteren Wärmeereignisses, wobei Gabbros und Amphibolite als Edukte bzw. Residualgesteine interpretiert werden könnten.Ein mögliches sekundäres Wärmeereignis kann mit der Intrusion von basischen Schmelzen in den Unteren Nicoya-Komplex bei der Bildung eines primitiven, oberkretazischen Inselbogens zwischen Pazifik und Karibik verbunden sein. Bei einer solchen Genese würden die LLP und die restitischen Amphibolite im Gegensatz zu den HLP nicht notwendigerweise als komagmatisch und damit zeitgleich zu den übrigen Magmatiten des Unteren NicoyaKomplexes gelten.

---

Resumen Dos series de plagiogranitos existen en el Complejo de Nicoya Inferior. Este complejo ofiolítico representa una litosfera oceánica de edad Jurásico hasta Cretácico Inferior. Plagiogranitos del nivel alto (high level plagiogranites, HLP) afloran en la parte superior de la secuencia acumulada en la peninsula de Nicoya. Están asociadas con doleritas ricas en hierro dentro de gabros intrusivos. Con respeto a la composición geoquímica y las relaciones con rocas básicas en el campo, el origen de los plagiogranitos está explicado por un modelo, que consiste de cristalización fraccionada y de filtración a presión.Plagiogranitos del nivel bajo (low level plagiogranites, LLP) aloran en la parte inferior de la secuencia acumulada en la peninsula de Santa Elena. La composición geoquímica y la asociación de estas rocas ácidas con gabros de textura acumulada y con anfibolitas coinciden con un modelo, que describe la formación de los LLP por una fusión parcial de las rocas básicas asociadas. Un evento termal, que posiblemente da lugar a una fusión parcial está representado por el origen del Complejo de Nicoya Superior, el cual se formó como arco insular primitivo en el límite intraoceánico de las placas del Caribe y del Pacífico.

---

— - — , . (HLP) . . , (LLP), , . , , ( .: REE HFS, ), - , , , . , . , . , , ; , . . LLP : SiO₂ . , , , — HLP — HFS. HLP , LLP , . , , , . , . LLP — HLP — , - .

     

A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks

In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk. This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding (i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision support tool for flood management.