Impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity on Lagrangian statistics for coastal pollution from a major marine fairway

Lagrangian trajectory methods are often applied as deterministic transport models, where transport is due strictly to advection without taking into account stochastic elements of particle dispersion, which raises questions about validity of the model results. The present work investigates the impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity for a case study of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland, where the pollutants are assumed to originate from a major fairway and are transported to the coast by surface currents. Lagrangian trajectories are calculated using the TRACMASS model from velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre circulation model for 1982 to 2001. Three cases are investigated: (1) trajectory calculation without eddy diffusivity, (2) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a constant diffusion coefficient and (3) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a time- and space-variable diffusion coefficient. It is found that the eddy diffusivity effect increases the spreading rate of initially closely packed trajectories and the number of trajectories that eventually reach the coast. The pattern of most frequently hit coastal sections, the probability of hit to each such section and the time the pollution spends offshore are virtually invariant with respect to inclusion of eddy diffusivity.     

Solar radiation transfer in the surface snow layer in Dronning Maud Land,Antarctica

Spectroradiometer measurements of solar radiation (the broadest band used 400–900 nm) were performed above and inside the surface snow layer in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, during the austral summer of 2009–2010. The vertical distributions of transmittance and the extinction coefficient were examined from the surface to a depth of 30 cm. Physical characterization of the snowpack included measurements of thickness, density, hardness (hand test), liquid-water content, and grain size and shape (from photographs of grains). The transmittance was <1% in the upper 20 cm and <27% in the upper 10 cm. The mean spectral diffuse extinction coefficient varied between 0.04 and 0.31 cm^-1 (10–20-cm layer). Using the spectral extinction coefficients of the 0–10-cm and 10–20-cm layers, the depth, where broadband (400–700-nm band) irradiance was 1% of the downwelling irradiance at the surface, was 50 cm. The density of the snow in the upper part of the snowpack (depth of 0–55 cm) varied from 300 to 440 kg m^?3. The predominant grain type was large rounded particles (RGlr) and the predominant grain size was 1 mm.     

Woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius Blum.) and its environment in northern Europe during the last glaciation

Woolly mammoths were large, herbivorous, cold-adapted mammals of the Late Pleistocene. The diet and habitat requirements of the species set certain constraints on the palaeoenvironments it could occupy. The relationship between the mammoth’s shifting range and changing environments can be explored using independent data on ice sheet configuration, temperature, and vegetation, provided the locality and age of the fossil remains can be validated. Here we present a comprehensive record of occurrence of the woolly mammoth in the circum-Baltic region of northern Europe during the last glaciation, based on a compilation of radiocarbon-dated remains. The record shows that the mammoth was widespread in northern and north-eastern Europe during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3), at 50,000–30,000 calibrated years ago (50–30 ka). The presence of the species up to 65°N latitude supports the restriction of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) during MIS 3. The widest distribution range round 30 ka was followed by a decline that led to the disappearance of mammoths from the area during the maximum extent of the SIS, from 22 to 18 ka. The woolly mammoth re-colonized the Baltic region and southern Scandinavia after the onset of the late-glacial deglaciation at 17 ka. The late-glacial record suggests a markedly fluctuating population changing its range in tune with the rapid environmental changes. The last appearance of mammoth in our study region was in Estonia during the Younger Dryas (Greenland Stadial 1; GS1) at about 12 ka. The two major periods of occurrence during MIS 3 and the late-glacial stadial suggest that mammoth had a wide tolerance of open to semi-open tundra and steppe-tundra habitats with intermediately cold climate, whereas the 22–18 ka disappearance suggests a major southward and/or eastward retreat in response to extremely cold, glacial conditions near the SIS margin. The final regional extinction correlates with the re-forestation during the rapid warming at the Younger Dryas–Holocene boundary.     

Proposed methods for potential evapotranspiration calculation of the Red River basin (North Vietnam)

Potential evapotranspiration (ETP) is an important part of a climatic water balance and a crucial variable in many kinds of models in computing actual evapotranspiration. The objective of this study was to find a reasonable approach of ETP calculation for a height‐differentiated landscape in subtropical climate. From the pool of diverse approaches, six common methods [Hamon, Priestley–Taylor, Thornthwaite, Blaney–Criddle, Turc and Food and Agricultural Organization Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56 (FAO‐56)] were selected. With the meteorological data for long‐term period (1964–2008), the calculation of ETP values was performed for 12 different meteorological stations in the Red River basin. Among the applied ETP calculation methods, the Turc and the FAO‐56 methods agreed well at most stations and represent best the expectations for the ETP values of the Thao and Da subbasins. The findings of our investigations indicate that in highly structured (land use and elevation) regions, not all methods provide satisfying results. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future fluvial erosion and sedimentation potential of cohesive sediments in a coastal river reach of SW Finland

This study aims to analyse the combined impacts of future discharges and sea levels on erosion–sedimentation potential, and its seasonal changes, in a ~43‐km‐long coastal river reach of South‐west Finland. To our knowledge, this kind of combined study has not been performed before. In addition to surveying the present erosion–sedimentation conditions, the daily erosion–sedimentation potential is simulated with a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model for the 1971–2000 and 2070–2099 periods by applying four discharge scenarios. Different sea level stages are also employed in the simulations. All scenarios forecast increasing autumn and winter discharges, but diminishing summer discharges. This indicates increasing river channel erosion, particularly during winters and autumns. Although discharge changes have altogether a greater influence on erosion–sedimentation potential, the importance of sea level changes on sedimentation is noticeable in the estuary. The rising sea level scenarios increase the sedimentation potential. In total, by 2070–2099, the erosion potential may increase in most parts of the study area. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land use intensity on stormwater runoff and its temporal occurrence in cold climates

The impacts of land use intensity, here defined as the degree of imperviousness, on stormwater volumes, runoff rates and their temporal occurrence were studied at three urban catchments in a cold region in southern Finland. The catchments with ‘High’ and ‘Intermediate’ land use intensity, located around the city centre, were characterized by 89% and 62% impervious surfaces, respectively. The ‘Low’ catchment was situated in a residential area of 19% imperviousness. During a 2‐year study period with divergent weather conditions, the generation of stormwater correlated positively with catchment imperviousness: The largest annual stormwater volumes and the highest runoff coefficients and number of stormwater runoff events occurred in the High catchment. Land use intensity also altered the seasonality of stormwater runoff: Most stormwater in the High catchment was generated during the warm period of the year, whereas the largest contribution to annual stormwater generation in the Low catchment took place during the cold period. In the two most urbanized catchments, spring snow melt occurred a few weeks earlier than in the Low catchment. The rate of stormwater runoff in the High and Intermediate catchments was higher in summer than during spring snow melt, and summer runoff rates in these more urbanized catchments were several times higher than in the Low catchment. Our study suggests that the effects of land use intensity on stormwater runoff are season dependent in cold climates and that cold seasons diminish the differences between land use intensities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22‐year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22‐year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood‐generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.