全文获取类型
收费全文 | 86篇 |
免费 | 5篇 |
国内免费 | 1篇 |
专业分类
大气科学 | 14篇 |
地球物理 | 11篇 |
地质学 | 26篇 |
海洋学 | 5篇 |
天文学 | 19篇 |
自然地理 | 17篇 |
出版年
2018年 | 1篇 |
2017年 | 1篇 |
2016年 | 3篇 |
2015年 | 2篇 |
2014年 | 4篇 |
2013年 | 2篇 |
2012年 | 2篇 |
2011年 | 3篇 |
2010年 | 5篇 |
2009年 | 5篇 |
2008年 | 3篇 |
2007年 | 5篇 |
2006年 | 4篇 |
2005年 | 5篇 |
2004年 | 11篇 |
2003年 | 4篇 |
2002年 | 4篇 |
2001年 | 2篇 |
2000年 | 6篇 |
1998年 | 2篇 |
1997年 | 4篇 |
1996年 | 2篇 |
1995年 | 1篇 |
1993年 | 2篇 |
1991年 | 2篇 |
1990年 | 1篇 |
1988年 | 1篇 |
1987年 | 1篇 |
1984年 | 1篇 |
1980年 | 1篇 |
1973年 | 1篇 |
1972年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有92条查询结果,搜索用时 0 毫秒
91.
Kirsti Jylhä Stefan Fronzek Heikki Tuomenvirta Timothy R. Carter Kimmo Ruosteenoja 《Climatic change》2008,86(3-4):441-462
Changes in indices related to frost and snow in Europe by the end of the twenty-first century were analyzed based on experiments
performed with seven regional climate models (RCMs). All the RCMs regionalized information from the same general circulation
model (GCM), applying the IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing scenario. In addition, some simulations used SRES B2 radiative forcing
and/or boundary conditions provided by an alternative GCM. Ice cover over the Baltic Sea was examined using a statistical
model that related the annual maximum extent of ice to wintertime coastal temperatures. Fewer days with frost and snow, shorter
frost seasons, a smaller liquid water equivalent of snow, and milder sea ice conditions were produced by all model simulations,
irrespective of the forcing scenario and the driving GCM. The projected changes have implications across a diverse range of
human activities. Details of the projections were subject to differences in RCM design, deviations between the boundary conditions
of the driving GCMs, uncertainties in future emissions and random effects due to internal climate variability. A larger number
of GCMs as drivers of the RCMs would most likely have resulted in somewhat wider ranges in the frost, snow and sea ice estimates
than those presented in this paper. 相似文献
92.
We use recent advances in time series econometrics to estimate the relation among emissions of CO2 and CH4, the concentration of these gases, and global surface temperature. These models are estimated and specified to answer two questions; (1) does human activity affect global surface temperature and; (2) does global surface temperature affect the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and/or methane. Regression results provide direct evidence for a statistically meaningful relation between radiative forcing and global surface temperature. A simple model based on these results indicates that greenhouse gases and anthropogenic sulfur emissions are largely responsible for the change in temperature over the last 130 years. The regression results also indicate that increases in surface temperature since 1870 have changed the flow of carbon dioxide to and from the atmosphere in a way that increases its atmospheric concentration. Finally, the regression results for methane hint that higher temperatures may increase its atmospheric concentration, but this effect is not estimated precisely. 相似文献