Short-code paleolimnological investigation of Lake Pihlajavesi in the Saimaa Lake complex, eastern Finalnd: assessment of habitat quality of an endemic and endangered seal population

A short-core paleolimnological investigation was carried out to acquire knowledge of the recent history of Lake Pihlajavesi, Saimaa Lake complex, and define its natural state before cultural disturbances. In the natural state, with negligible human interference, the basin was oligotrophic and oxygen-rich. The bioproductivity in the littoral zone was low and the profundal benthic quality was good according to Wiederholm's Benthic Quality Index.Based on diatom analyses, no significant changes have taken place in the phytoplankton communities during the past decades. Sedimentary chironomid communities reveal, however, slight changes on profundal life in the Pihlajavedenselkä basin, near the main pollution sources, whereas there were no significant changes in the outer basin. Three stages could be distinguished in the pollution history of Pihlajavedenselkä: (1) 'The natural state' up until the 1960s, (2) 'the period of increasing loading' during the 1960s and 1970s, and (3) 'the recovery of the basin' during the past two decades.Untreated municipal waste water from the town of Savonlinna was partly responsible for the commencement of eutrophication in the Pihlajavedenselkä basin in the 1960s. The paper and pulp industry in Varkaus, some 40 kilometres upstream from Lake Pihlajanvesi, has also increased eutrophication, especially during the worst period of water quality in the 1960s and 1970s. More effective waste water purification has markedly reduced effluent loading and led to a general recovery of the area. Neverthless the effects of slight nutrient loading can still be seen, especially in littoral bioproductivity.Our paleolimnological data indicate that the present ecosystem will offer living conditions for the endemic Saimaa ringed seal population that are similar to those that existed prior to human disturbances.     

Importance of climate,forest fires and human population size in the Holocene boreal forest composition change in northern Europe

The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long‐term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. We employ pollen data from lakes, reflecting regional vegetation, and small forest hollows, reflecting local vegetation, from Russia, Finland and Sweden to reconstruct the long‐term forest composition. As potential drivers of the Holocene forest dynamics we consider climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings. We apply the statistical method of variation partitioning to assess the relative importance of these environmental variables on long‐term boreal forest composition. The results show that climate is the main driver of the changes in Holocene boreal forest composition at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the role of climate is relatively small. In general, the importance of forest fires is low both at regional and local scales. The fact that both climate and forest fires explain relatively small proportions of variation in long‐term boreal vegetation in small forest hollow records demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand‐scale forest dynamics. The relative importance of human population size was low in both the prehistorical and the historical time periods. However, this is the first time that this type of data has been used to statistically assess the importance of human population size on boreal vegetation and the spatial representativeness of the data may cause bias to the analysis.     

中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险评估

综合考虑柑桔气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建柑桔的风险度模型,运用滑动建模技术对中国亚热带地区柑桔的气候风险性进行动态分析与评估。根据风险分布强度将中国亚热带地区柑桔温度、降水、日照和气候风险大致分为三类型:低风险型、中风险型和高风险型。温度风险度大致呈纬度地带性分布,除西部高山区外,由低纬向高纬风险度依次增高;降水风险度呈现亚热带中部低,北部和西部高;与降水风险度相反,日照风险度在亚热带中部高,北部和西部低;气候风险度受温度变化的主导,也大致呈现纬度地带性,呈现高纬和西部高海拔区高,低纬和东部沿海区低。柑桔气候风险在时间和空间变化上都存在着差异,近46年来,中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势,尤其以20世纪80年代初以来增加的最快;由于全球气候变暖的影响,亚热带东部和南部风险较低的区域分布有逐渐减少的趋势,而北部和西部风险高的区域分布有进一步增大并向东部和南部扩展的可能。从中国亚热带地区柑桔减产率大于10%、20%、30%的气候风险度分布区域变动过程来看,柑桔各减产率的气候风险度分布具有很明显的区域性和连续性,大体上由东南向西北呈增高趋势。     

Palaeolimnology of Lake Piene-Kuuppalanlampi (Kurkijoki, Karelian Republic, Russia): isolation history, lake ecosystem development and long-term agricultural impact

The post-glacial history of Lake Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi, western Lake Ladoga region, was studied by means of stratigraphic pollen and diatom analyses. Diatoms were analysed to track the isolation history of the basin and the limnological effects of the early land-use phases indicated by pollen analysis. Chrysophycean stomatocysts and Isoëtes spores were also employed in the limnological reconstructions. Sediment dating was provided by six conventional radiocarbon dates.The lower part of the 370-cm long sediment sequence represents early Holocene, large lake conditions: the (freshwater) Yoldia and Ancylus stages of the Baltic basin, with a short-term lagoonal or isolation phase at the end of Yoldia. The basin was isolated due to Ancylus lake regression at 9785 cal B.P. For the small-lake sequence (0–250 cm) we used diatom inferences (WA-method) for hindcasting water chemistry. The post-isolation limnology of Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi reflects the development of vegetation on its small hill-top catchment. In its early development, the lake was mesotrophic, but became more acidic (pH about 6) and oligotrophic after the decline of temperate hardwood trees and the spread of spruce to the area after around 5000 B.P. The lake ecosystem appears to have reacted sensitively to agricultural land-use in the catchment from AD 400–800 onwards: inferred total phosphorus levels and pH both rise during these periods.     

Light scattering in cometary dust comae

Detailed single and multiple scattering calculations were carried out for a spherically symmetric cometary atmosphere irradiated by a plane parallel source. Using simplifying assumptions in the single scattering approximation, analytical expressions were derived for the total flux impinging the cometary nucleus, which was shown to be a decreasing function of the coma opacity. Moreover, while highly anisotropic phase functions resulted in more light reaching the nucleus than was the case for isotropic phase functions, the net energy flux at the nucleus surface was still found to be smaller in the presence of a coma than in the no coma case. This increased flux due to the anisotropic phase functions was attributed mostly to the effect of directional scattering in the forward Sun-comet axis. The isotropic multiply scattered flux at the surface was found tobe an increasing function of the opacity, , for 2.5. At larger values of , the maximum in the downward directed scattered flux was still seen to increase, but occurred at a height of several radii above the nucleus, resulting in a reduction at the surface. On the other hand, the total flux at the surface was again shown to be a decreasing function of and always less than in the no coma case. Finally, on comparing the multiply scattered flux with that obtained in the plane parallel approximation, it was quite apparent that except in the vicinity of the Sun-comet axis, the plane parallel geometry tends to underestimate the degree of scattering.NRC Resident Research Associate.     

Comparison of Silver and Gold Inquarting in the Fire Assay Determination of Palladium/Platinum and Rhodium in Geological Samples

The classical lead fire assay is still the most important method for the pre-concentration and separation of Ag, Au and some of the platinum-group elements (PGE) in the analysis of geological materials. The most frequently used fire assay procedure is the determination of Au, Pd and Pt with Ag as collector. When Au is used instead of Ag as a collector, Pd, Pt, Rh and possibly Ir can also be determined. In this study the recoveries by Au and Ag collectors, also called inquarts, were compared in the fire assay analysis of Pd, Pt and Rh in geological reference materials. The amount of gold to be added was optimised. Variable recoveries were obtained with Ag inquart for Rh, but a 2 mg inquart of Au gave good recoveries for all three of these elements in the analysis of reference samples of different geological materials. A procedure, alternative to scorification, to overcome interferences caused by base metals in the cupellation step is presented. The procedure involves cutting the Pb button into pieces and analysing the pieces separately. Prior to this, a homogeneity study of the lead button was made, and it showed that Pd, Pt and Rh were evenly distributed in the Pb button. All determinations were made using inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES).     

Holocene annual mean temperature changes in Estonia and their relationship to solar insolation and atmospheric circulation patterns

We reconstructed annual mean temperature (T_ann) trends from three radiocarbon-dated Holocene pollen stratigraphies from lake sediments in Estonia, northern Europe. The reconstructions were carried out using a North-European pollen-climate calibration model based on weighted averaging partial least-squares regression. The cross-validated prediction error of the model is 0.89°C and the coefficient of determination between observed modern T_ann values and those predicted by the model is 0.88. In the reconstruction, the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) is distinguishable at 8000-4500 cal yr B.P., with the expansion of thermophilous tree species and T_ann on average 2.5°C higher than at present. The pollen-stratigraphical data reflect progressively warmer and drier summers during the HTM. Analogously with the modern decadal-scale climatic variability in North Europe, we interpret this as an indication of increasing climatic continentality due to the intensification of anticyclonic circulation and meridional air flow. Post-HTM cooling started abruptly at around 4500 cal yr B.P. All three reconstructions show a transient (ca. 300 years) cooling of 1.5-2.0°C at 8600-8000 cal yr B.P. We tentatively correlate this cold event with the North-Atlantic “8.2 ka event” at 8400-8000 cal yr B.P. Provided that the 8.2 ka event was caused by freshening of the North-Atlantic surface water, our data provide evidence of the climatic and vegetational responsiveness of the boundary of the temperate and boreal zones to the weakening of the North-Atlantic thermohaline circulation and the zonal energy transport over Europe. No other cold events of comparable magnitude are indicated during the last 8000 years.     

Photometric modeling of Saturn's rings: I. Monte Carlo method and the effect of nonzero volume filling factor

The scattering properties of particulate rings with volume filling factors in the interval D=0.001-0.3 are studied, with photometric Monte Carlo ray tracing simulations combining the advantages of direct (photons followed from the source) and indirect methods (brightness as seen from the observing direction). Besides vertically homogeneous models, ranging from monolayers to classical many-particle thick rings, particle distributions obtained from dynamical simulations are studied, possessing a nonuniform vertical profile and a power law distribution of particle sizes. Self-gravity is not included to assure homogeneity in planar directions. Our main goal is to check whether the moderately flattened ring models predicted by dynamical simulations (with central plane D>0.1) are consistent with the basic photometric properties of Saturn's rings seen in ground-based observations, including the brightening near zero phase angle (opposition effect), and the brightening of the B-ring with increasing elevation angle (tilt effect). Our photometric simulations indicate that dense rings are typically brighter in reflected light than those with D→0, due to enhanced single scattering. For a vertically illuminated layer of identical particles this enhancement amounts at intermediate viewing elevations to roughly 1+2D. Increased single scattering is also obtained for low elevation illumination, further augmented at low phase angles α by the opposition brightening when D increases: the simulated opposition effect agrees very well with the Lumme and Bowell (1981, Astron. J. 86, 1694-1704) theoretical formula. For large α the total intensity may also decrease, due to reduced amount of multiple scattering. For the low (α=13°) and high (α=155°) phase angle geometries analyzed in Dones et al. (1993, Icarus 105, 184-215) the brightness change for D=0.1 amounts to 20% and −17%, respectively. In the case of an extended size distribution, dynamical simulations indicate that the smallest particles typically occupy a layer several times thicker than the largest particles. Even if the large particles form a dynamically dense system, a narrow opposition peak can arise due to mutual shadowing among the small particles: for example, a size distribution extending about two decades can account for the observed about 1° wide opposition peak, solely in terms of mutual shadowing. The reduced width of the opposition peak for extended size distribution is in accordance with Hapke's (1986, Icarus 67, 264-280) treatment for semi-infinite layers. Due to vertical profile and particle size distribution, the photometric behavior is sensitive to the viewing elevation: this can account for the tilt-effect of the B-ring, as dense and thus bright central parts of the ring become better visible for larger elevation, whereas in the case of smaller elevation, mainly low volume density upper layers are visible. Since multiple scattering is not involved, the explanation works also for albedo well below unity. Inclusion of nonzero volume density helps also to model some of the Voyager observations. For example, the discrepancy between predicted and observed brightness at large phase angles for much of the A-ring (Dones et al., 1993, Icarus 105, 184-215) is removed when the enhanced low α single scattering and reduced large α multiple scattering is allowed for. Also, a model with vertical thickness increasing with saturnocentric distance offers at least a qualitative explanation for the observed contrast reversal between the inner and outer A-ring in low and high phase Voyager images. Differences in local size distribution and thus on the effective D may also account for the contrast reversal in resonance sites.     

GCM-based regional temperature and precipitation change estimates for Europe under four SRES scenarios applying a super-ensemble pattern-scaling method

Seasonal GCM-based temperature and precipitation projections for the end of the 21st century are presented for five European regions; projections are compared with corresponding estimates given by the PRUDENCE RCMs. For most of the six global GCMs studied, only responses to the SRES A2 and B2 forcing scenarios are available. To formulate projections for the A1FI and B1 forcing scenarios, a super-ensemble pattern-scaling technique has been developed. This method uses linear regression to represent the relationship between the local GCM-simulated response and the global mean temperature change simulated by a simple climate model. The method has several advantages: e.g., the noise caused by internal variability is reduced, and the information provided by GCM runs performed with various forcing scenarios is utilized effectively. The super-ensemble method proved especially useful when only one A2 and one B2 simulation is available for an individual GCM. Next, 95% probability intervals were constructed for regional temperature and precipitation change, separately for the four forcing scenarios, by fitting a normal distribution to the set of projections calculated by the GCMs. For the high-end of the A1FI uncertainty interval, temperature increases close to 10°C could be expected in the southern European summer and northern European winter. Conversely, the low-end warming estimates for the B1 scenario are ~ 1°C. The uncertainty intervals of precipitation change are quite broad, but the mean estimate is one of a marked increase in the north in winter and a drastic reduction in the south in summer. In the RCM simulations driven by a single global model, the spread of the temperature and precipitation projections tends to be smaller than that in the GCM simulations, but it is possible to reduce this disparity by employing several driving models for all RCMs. In the present suite of simulations, the difference between the mean GCM and RCM projections is fairly small, regardless of the number or driving models applied.