How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.     

Temporary-creep and post-creep properties of aquaculture netting materials

Creep in materials and structures may lead to increasing strains, permanent deformations, change in mechanical properties and rupture at loads significantly smaller than the breaking strength. In this paper, we present data on temporary-creep properties, recovery of strain post creep and post-creep tensile properties of a selection of Raschel knitted netting materials. Creep strain in wet netting materials subjected to a creep target load of 10–90% of average force at break for 30 min varied from 1.6% to 3.5%. The rate of creep decreased with time and decreased target load. The recovery of strain post creep was relatively fast and approximately half of the creep strain was elastic. Post-creep tensile testing showed that the length and force at break were not significantly affected by the creep load history. However, due to permanent deformations of the specimens from the creep test, the nominal breaking strain decreased and the stiffness increased with increased creep target load.     

Adaptive model of plankton dynamics for the North Atlantic

Plankton ecosystems in the North Atlantic display strong regional and interannual variability in productivity and trophic structure, which cannot be captured by simple plankton models. Additional compartments subdividing functional groups can increase predictive power, but the high number of parameters tends to compromise portability and robustness of model predictions. An alternative strategy is to use property state variables, such as cell size, normally considered constant parameters in ecosystem models, to define the structure of functional groups in terms of both behaviour and response to physical forcing. This strategy may allow us to simulate realistically regional and temporal differences among plankton communities while keeping model complexity at a minimum.We fit a model of plankton and DOM dynamics globally and individually to observed climatologies at three diverse locations in the North Atlantic. Introducing additional property state variables is shown to improve the model fit both locally and globally, make the model more portable, and help identify model deficiencies. The zooplankton formulation exerts strong control on model performance. Our results suggest that the current paradigm on zooplankton allometric functional relationships might be at odds with observed plankton dynamics. Our parameter estimation resulted in more realistic estimates of parameters important for primary production than previous data assimilation studies.Property state variables generate complex emergent functional relationships, and might be used like tracers to differentiate between locally produced and advected biomass. The model results suggest that the observed temperature dependence of heterotrophic growth efficiency [Rivkin, R.B., Legendre, L., 2001. Biogenic carbon cycling in the upper ocean: effects of microbial respiration. Science 291 (5512) 2398-2400] could be an emergent relation due to intercorrelations among temperature, nutrient concentration and growth efficiency. A major advantage of using property state variables is that no additional parameters are required, such that differences in model performance can be directly related to model structure rather than parameter tuning.     

Keck adaptive optics images of Jupiter’s north polar cap and Northern Red Oval

We present observations at near-infrared wavelengths (1-5 μm) of Jupiter’s north polar region and Northern Red Oval (NN-LRS-1). The observations were taken with the near-infrared camera NIRC2 coupled to the adaptive optics system on the 10-m W.M. Keck Telescope on UT 21 August 2010. At 5-μm Jupiter’s disk reveals considerable structure, including small bright rings which appear to surround all small vortices. It is striking, though, that no such ring is seen around the Northern Red Oval. In de Pater et al. [2010a. Icarus 210, 742-762], we showed that such rings also exist around all small vortices in Jupiter’s southern hemisphere, and are absent around the Great Red Spot and Red Oval BA. We show here that the vertical structure and extent of the Northern Red Oval is very similar to that of Jupiter’s Red Oval BA. These new observations of the Northern Red Oval, therefore, support the idea of a dichotomy between small and large anticyclones, in which ovals larger than about two Rossby deformation radii do not have 5-μm bright rings. In de Pater et al. [2010a. Icarus 210, 742-762], we explained this difference in terms of the secondary circulations within the vortices. We further compare the brightness distribution of our new 5-μm images with previously published radio observations of Jupiter, highlighting the depletion of NH₃ gas over areas that are bright at 5 μm.     

A multi-wavelength study of the 2009 impact on Jupiter: Comparison of high resolution images from Gemini,Keck and HST

Within several days of A. Wesley’s announcement that Jupiter was hit by an object on UT 19 July 2009, we observed the impact site with (1) the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) at UV through visible (225–924 nm) wavelengths, (2) the 10-m W.M. Keck II telescope in the near-infrared (1–5 μm), and (3) the 8-m Gemini-North telescope in the mid-infrared (7.7–18 μm). All observations reported here were obtained between 22 and 25 July 2009. Observations at visible and near-infrared wavelengths show that large (～0.75-μm radius) dark (imaginary index of refraction m_i ～ 0.01–0.1) particulates were deposited at atmospheric pressures between 10 and 200–300 mbar; analysis of HST-UV data reveals that in addition smaller-sized (～0.1 μm radius) material must have been deposited at the highest altitudes (～10 mbar). Differences in morphology between the UV and visible/near-IR images suggest three-dimensional variations in particle size and density across the impact site, which probably were induced during the explosion and associated events. At mid-infrared wavelengths the brightness temperature increased due to both an enhancement in the stratospheric NH₃ gas abundance and the physical temperature of the atmosphere. This high brightness temperature coincides with the center part of the impact site as seen with HST. This observation, combined with (published) numerical simulations of the Shoemaker-Levy 9 impacts on Jupiter and the Tunguska airburst on Earth, suggests that the downward jet from the terminal explosion probably penetrated down to the ～700-mbar level.     

The Hekla 1947 tephra in the north of Ireland: regional distribution,concentration and geochemistry

A cryptotephra layer from the eruption of Hekla in 1947 has recently been discovered in Irish peatlands. This tephra layer represents the most recent deposition of volcanic ash in the UK prior to the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010. Here we examine the concentration and geochemistry of the Hekla 1947 tephra in 14 peat profiles from across Northern Ireland. Electron probe microanalysis of individual tephra shards (n = 91) reveals that the tephra is of dacitic–andesitic geochemistry and is highly similar to the Hekla 1510 tephra, although spheroidal carbonaceous particle profiles can be used for successful discrimination of the two layers. The highest concentrations of Hekla 1947 are found in western sites, probably reflecting the pathway of the ash fall event due to the prevailing wind direction. Comparable tephra concentrations from two cores (1 km apart) from a single bog and from nearby sites may suggest that tephra shard concentrations in peat profiles reflect ash fallout densities across a specific region, rather than site‐specific factors associated with peatlands. This paper firmly establishes Hekla 1947 as a useful chronostratigraphic marker for the twentieth century, although within a restricted zone. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of Fe<Superscript>3+</Superscript> on garnet–orthopyroxene and garnet–olivine geothermometers

Applying Fe²⁺–Mg exchange geothermometers to natural samples may lead to incorrect temperature estimates if significant Fe³⁺ is present. In order to quantify this effect, high-pressure experiments were carried out in a belt apparatus in a natural system close to CFMAS at 5 GPa and 1,100–1,400 °C. The oxygen fugacity in the experiments was at or below the Re–ReO₂ buffer. This is at significantly more oxidized conditions than in previous experiments, and, as consequence, higher Fe³⁺/Fe²⁺ ratios were generated. The Fe³⁺ content of garnet in the experiments was quantified by electron microprobe using the flank method. Making the usual assumption that Fe_total = Fe²⁺, the two-pyroxene thermometer of Brey and Köhler (J Pet 31:1353–1378, 1990) reproduced the experimental temperature to ±35 °C and the garnet–clinopyroxene Fe²⁺–Mg exchange thermometer of Krogh (Contrib Miner Pet 99:44–48, 1988) overestimated the temperatures on average by only 25 °C. On the other hand, application of the garnet–olivine (O’Neill and Wood in Contrib Miner Pet 70:59–70, 1979) and garnet–orthopyroxene (Harley in Contrib Miner Pet 86:359–373, 1984) exchange geothermometers yielded an underestimation in calculated temperatures of >200 °C. However, making explicit accounting for Fe³⁺ in garnet (i.e. using only measured Fe²⁺) leads to a vast improvement in the agreement between calculated and experimental temperatures, generally to within ±70 °C for the garnet–orthopyroxene geothermometer as well as noticeable improvement of calculated temperatures for the garnet–olivine geothermometer. Our results demonstrate that the two-pyroxene and garnet–clinopyroxene thermometers are rather insensitive to the presence of Fe³⁺ whilst direct accounting of Fe³⁺ in garnet is essential when applying the garnet–olivine and garnet–orthopyroxene thermometers.     

Volatile (sulphur and chlorine), major,and trace element geochemistry of mafic to intermediate tephras from the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (33–43°S)

Here we present the first systematic investigation of volatile geochemistry along the Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) of Chile. Holocene olivine-hosted melt inclusions in the most mafic tephras sampled from 16 volcanoes along the volcanic front of the SVZ between 33°S and 43°S were analysed for pre-eruptive sulphur, chlorine, and major element contents. These results are combined with trace element compositions of the host whole rocks. The highest fractionation-corrected gas contents occur in the least-degassed melt inclusions from small monogenetic cones of Los Hornitos, Cabeza de Vaca, and Apagado from both the transitional and the southern-central SVZ, reaching ~3,000 μg/g S and 1,400 μg/g Cl, while the lowest abundances of ~1,100 μg/g S and ~600 μg/g Cl were found in the central SVZ at Volcán Lonquimay, Volcán Llaima, and Volcán Villarrica. Chlorine co-varies with trace element indicators for the degree of melting and/or source enrichment, such that the lowest Cl contents are found in high-degree melts from the most depleted mantle sources. The size of the volcanic edifices correlates inversely with Cl abundances in the melt. This could reflect more extensive degassing during ascent through the complex magma plumbing systems beneath the stratovolcanoes or greater dilution during larger degrees of melting of more depleted sources, or a combination of these factors. Compared to other subduction zones, the SVZ melt inclusions exhibit Cl and S abundances in the same range as most of those from the Central American and those from the Marianas arcs.     

Seismicity around the Hekla and Torfajökull volcanoes, Iceland, during a volcanically quiet period, 1991–1995

The volcano Hekla in south Iceland had its latest eruption in January–March 1991. The eruption was accompanied and followed by considerable seismic activity. This study examines the seismicity in the Hekla region (63°42′–64°18′N, 18°30′–20°12′W) during a period when the high activity related to the eruption had ceased, from July 1991 to October 1995. The aim is to define the level of the normal background seismicity of the area that can be compared to the eruption-related activity. The Hekla Volcano proper was generally aseismic during the study period. The most prominent earthquake cluster is in the neighbouring Torfajökull Volcano. The epicentres are concentrated in the western part of the caldera and west of it. The hypocentres are located at all depths from the surface down to 14?km, with highest activity at 5–12?km. Inside this cluster, in the northwest part of the caldera, is a spherical volume void of earthquakes, approximately 4?km in diameter and centred at 8?km depth. This is interpreted as a cooling magma body. Small, low-frequency events of volcanic origin were occasionally recorded at Torfajökull. This activity has mainly occurred in swarms and was most abundant during the first year of the study period, presumably reflecting some kind of connection to the 1991 Hekla eruption. Our study area also includes the easternmost section of the South Iceland seismic zone, a transform zone characterized by bookshelf faulting on transverse faults. Two lineaments of epicentres were identified, roughly corresponding to mapped faults of the South Iceland seismic zone. The hypocentres are relatively deep, mainly at 6–12?km, matching the general trend of hypocentral depth increasing toward the east. The seismicity is highest in the area of the mapped faults. However, the epicentres extend beyond them and indicate greater width of the South Iceland seismic zone, or 20–30?km rather than approximately 10?km as indicated by the length of the surface faults. The seismicity in the volcanic systems of Hekla and Vatnafjöll shows some characteristics of the South Iceland seismic zone. Epicentres are concentrated into two N–S lineaments, one of which coincides with the location of the 1987 Vatnafjöll earthquake (M_w=5.9), a strike-slip event on a N- to S-trending fault. The hypocentres of the Hekla–Vatnafjöll events are mainly at 8–13?km depth, which indicates a continuation of the depth trend of the earthquakes of the South Iceland seismic zone. The events located at Hekla proper and immediately north of it are all of low-frequency character, which can be held as an indication of volcanic origin. On the other hand, they show clear S arrivals at observing stations like normal high-frequency tectonic earthquakes.