Coping with floods in the city of Dresden,Germany

During August 2002 and again in March 2005 as well as in April 2006 the city of Dresden was hit by floods. The flood in 2002 was an extreme event, only comparable to flooding in 1862 and 1890 in Dresden. The flood discharge in 2006 was the second highest discharge since 1940 at the Dresden gauge although its return period was only about 15 years. This special situation enables a comparison of the preparedness of authorities and households in the flood endangered city of Dresden in 2002 after a long period of relatively low flood discharges and in 2005/2006 just a few years after a severe flood event. Before August 2002, the flood risk awareness and flood preparedness of authorities and households in Dresden was low. The inundation channels and the Elbe riverbed had not been maintained well. Just 13% of the households had undertaken building precautionary measures. The severe flood situation as well as the low flood preparedness led to tremendous damage, e.g., losses to residential buildings amounted to 304 million €. After 2002, the municipal authorities in Dresden developed a new flood management concept and many households were motivated to undertake precautionary measures. Building precautionary measures had been actually undertaken by 67% of the households before the floods in 2005 and 2006. Flood damage was significantly lower, due to the less severe flood situations and the much better preparedness. It is an important challenge for the future to keep preparedness at a high level also without recurrent flood experiences.     

Dispersion in Neptune’s zonal wind velocities from NIR Keck AO observations in July 2009

We report observations of Neptune made in H-(1.4–1.8 μm) and K’-(2.0–2.4 μm) bands on 14 and 16 July 2009 from the 10-m W.M. Keck II Telescope using the near-infrared camera NIRC2 coupled to the Adaptive Optics (AO) system. We track the positions of 54 bright atmospheric features over a few hours to derive their zonal and latitudinal velocities, and perform radiative transfer modeling to measure the cloud-top pressures of 50 features seen simultaneously in both bands. We observe one South Polar Feature (SPF) on 14 July and three SPFs on 16 July at ～65?°S. The SPFs observed on both nights are different features, consistent with the high variability of Neptune’s storms. There is significant dispersion in Neptune’s zonal wind velocities about the smooth Voyager wind profile fit of Sromovsky et al. (Icarus, 105:140, 1993), much greater than the upper limit we expect from vertical wind shear, with the largest dispersion seen at equatorial and southern mid-latitudes. Comparison of feature pressures vs. residuals in zonal velocity from the smooth Voyager wind profile also directly reveals the dominance of mechanisms over vertical wind shear in causing dispersion in the zonal winds. Vertical wind shear is not the primary cause of the difference in dispersion and deviation in zonal velocities between features tracked in H-band on 14 July and those tracked in K’-band on 16 July. Dispersion in the zonal velocities of features tracked over these short time periods is dominated by one or more mechanisms, other than vertical wind shear, that can cause changes in the dispersion and deviation in the zonal velocities on timescales of hours to days.     

The 1986 Kermadec earthquake and its relation to plate segmentation

To evaluate the tectonic significance of the October 20, 1986 Kermadec earthquake (M _w =7.7), we performed a comprehensive analysis of source parameters using surface waves, body waves, and relocated aftershocks. Amplitude and phase spectra from up to 93 Rayleigh waves were inverted for centroid time, depth, and moment tensor in a two-step algorithm. In some of the inversions, the time function was parameterized to include information from the body-wave time function. The resulting source parameters were stable with respect to variations in the velocity and attenuation models assumed, the parameterization of the time function, and the set of Rayleigh waves included. The surface wave focal mechanism derived (=275°, =61°, =156°) is an oblique-compressional mechanism that is not easy to interpret in terms of subduction tectonics. A seismic moment of 4.5×10²⁰ N-m, a centroid depth of 45±5 km, and a centroid time of 13±3 s were obtained. Directivity was not resolvable from the surface waves. The short source duration is in significant contrast to many large earthquakes.We performed a simultaneous inversion ofP andSH body waves for focal mechanism and time function. The focal mechanism agreed roughly with the surface wave mechanism. Multiple focal mechanisms remain a possibility, but could not be resolved. The body waves indicate a short duration of slip (15 to 20 s), with secondary moment release 60s later. Seismically radiated energy was computed from the body-wave source spectrum. The stress drop computed from the seismic energy is about 30 bars. Sixty aftershocks that occurred within three months of the mainshock were relocated using the method of Joint Hypocentral Determination (JHD). Most of the aftershocks have underthrusting focal mechanisms and appear to represent triggered slip on the main thrust interface. The depth, relatively high stress drop, short duration of slip, and paucity of true aftershocks are consistent with intraplate faulting within the downgoing plate. Although it is not clear on which nodal plane slip occurred, several factors favor the roughly E-W trending plane. The event occurred near a major segmentation in the downgoing plate at depth, near a bend in the trench, and near a right-lateral offset of the volcanic are by 80 km along an E-W direction. Also, all events in the region from 1977 to 1991 with CMT focal mechanisms similar to that of the Mainshock occurred near the mainshock epicenter, rather than forming an elongate zone parallel to the trench as did the aftershock activity. We interpret this event as part of the process of segmentation or tearing of the subducting slab. This segmentation appears to be related to the subduction of the Louisville Ridge, which may act as an obstacle to subduction through its buoyancy.     

Early presence of Bythotrephes cederströmii (Cladocera: Cercopagidae) in lake sediments in North America: evidence or artifact?

Journal of Paleolimnology - The spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii), a freshwater crustacean considered to be the world’s best-studied invasive zooplankter, was first recorded...     

Climate change during the past 1000 years: a high‐temporal‐resolution multiproxy record from a mire in northern Finland

We present a record of peatland development in relation to climate changes and human activities from the Palomaa mire, a remote site in northern Finland. We used fine‐resolution and continuous sampling to analyse several proxies including pollen (for vegetation on and around the mire), testate amoebae (TA; for mire‐wetness changes), oxygen and carbon isotopes from Sphagnum cellulose (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C; for humidity and temperature changes), peat‐accumulation rates and peat‐colour changes. In spite of an excellent accumulation model (30 ¹⁴C dates and estimated standard deviation of sample ages <1 year in the most recent part), the potential to determine cause–effect (or lead–lag) relationships between environmental changes and biotic responses is limited by proxy‐specific incorporation processes below the actively growing Sphagnum surface. Nevertheless, what emerges is that mire development was closely related to water‐table changes rather than to summer temperature and that water‐table decreases were associated with increasing peat‐accumulation rates and more abundant mire vegetation. A rapid fen‐to‐bog transition occurred within a few years around AD 1960 when the water table decreased beyond the historical minimum, supporting the notion that mires can rapidly shift into bogs in response to allogenic factors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.