Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions

One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass evacuation is high, yet the cost in possible human casualties is potentially much greater if an evacuation is not called, or is called late. To assist officials in weighing these considerations, probabilistic criteria for evacuation decision-making are developed within a cost-benefit analysis framework. It is shown that such criteria may be quantitatively expressed in terms of the proportion of the evacuees owing their lives to the evacuation call. The underlying principles are illustrated with some case studies where eruption probabilities have been estimated.     

Nucleotide sequence of β-tubulin gene from the soft coralscleronephthya gracillimum (kükenthal)

We cloned the complete cDNA of the β-tubulin from the soft coral,Scleronephthya gracillimum (Kükenthal) (Alcyonacea, Octocorallia, Anthozoa, Cnidaria), via the random sequencing of a cDNA library and the 5′-rapid amplification of cDNA end (RACE) technique. The full-length cDNA of theS. gracillimum β-tubulin comprised 1541 bp, not including the poly (A)⁺ stretch, also contained a complete open reading frame, which codes for a total of 445 amino acids. The amino acid residues 16-402 appeared to be in a state of conservation in a variety of animals. Northern blot analysis clearly demonstrated that the sequence we have obtained is, indeed, the full-length cDNA of the β-tubulin gene inS. gracillimum.     

Wave reflection from perforated-wall caisson breakwaters

Analytical models for predicting wave reflection from a perforated-wall caisson breakwater have been developed. Most of the existing models deal with the case in which the waves are normally incident to the caisson lying on a flat sea bottom. In the present paper, using the Galerkin-eigenfunction method, an analytical model is developed that can predict the reflection coefficient of a perforatedwall caisson mounted on a rubble mound foundation when waves are obliquely incident to the breakwater at an arbitrary angle. The developed model is compared with other theoretical results and hydraulic experimental data.     

ARD generation and corrosion potential of exposed roadside rockmass at Boeun and Mujoo,South Korea

Acid rock drainage (ARD) is a longstanding problem often associated with the resulting corrosion due to the acidity generated from sulfidic oxidation. To evaluate characteristics of ARD and corrosion, samples from the road side rock mass of Boeun and Mujoo were analysed using X-ray diffraction, acid/base accounting and Leaching tests. The results indicated that many samples had a pyritic origin and can be regarded as acid-generating rocks. The Leaching test showed that the average pH of the leachates of samples from both Boeun and Mujoo were moderately acidic, ranging from 3 to 4. Interestingly, as acidity increases from pH 4, the SO₄₋, Fe, Al and Mg concentrations increase abnormally. Samples from roadside slope of Mujoo showed high corrosive potential. Maximum sulfide oxidation rate of a sample taken from Mujoo was as high as 5,166 mg/kg/week.     

Records of palaeo‐sea level and eruption duration in a coastal tuff ring,Jeju Island,Korea

Phreatomagmatic volcanoes and their sedimentary products can preserve high‐resolution records of earth surface processes because of their high deposition rate. Songaksan, Jeju Island, Korea, is a phreatomagmatic volcano, which erupted c. 3.7 ka BP in a coastal setting. Its tuff ring preserves a record of intertidal to supratidal facies transition in the basal part, which reveals the position of palaeo‐high‐tide level for at least 13 high‐tide events, and a record of a storm‐surge event in the middle part of the tuff ring, which lasted approximately three tidal cycles. Based on these features, the phreatomagmatic eruption of Songaksan is estimated to have taken place over a month. The sea level at the time was almost identical to that at present. This study shows that coastal phreatomagmatic volcanoes can preserve high‐resolution records of eruption duration and palaeo‐sea level, and can provide accurately levelled and dated data points to the Quaternary sea‐level curve.     

Hydrochemistry of groundwaters in a spa area of Korea: an implication for water quality degradation by intensive pumping

A geochemical study was carried out in a small spa area (Onyang Spa, Korea) where intensive pumping of deep thermal groundwater (1 300 000 m³ year⁻¹) is taking place. This has caused the deep fractures to lose their artesian pressure and the upper shallow fractures have been encroached by shallow, cold waters. To quantify the influence of long‐term heavy pumping on the quality of the geothermal water, groundwater sampling and chemical analysis, water‐level measurement, and well loggings were performed for the selected deep thermal wells and shallow cold wells. Chemical analysis results indicate a big contrast in water chemistry and origins between the two water types. Shallow groundwater shows a wider concentration ranges in solutes that are closely related to human activity, illustrating the water's vulnerability to contamination near the land surface. Plots of water chemistry as a function of fluoride reveal that the quality of the thermal water was greatly influenced by the shallow, cold groundwater and that intensive pumping of the deep thermal groundwater has caused the introduction of shallow groundwater into the deeper fractures. Although the deep and the shallow fractures were piezometrically separated to some extent, a mixing model based on fluoride and nitrate indicated that the cold‐water fractions in the thermal wells are up to 50%. This suggests that the thermal water is faced with water quality degradation by the downward flow of the shallow, cold water. Restriction on the total of all the pumpage permits per unit area is suggested to restore the artesian pressure of the deep thermal aquifer and to prevent cold‐water intrusion in the study area. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A period study and light-curve synthesis for the Algol-type semidetached binary XX Cephei

We obtained CCD photometric observations of the Algol-type semidetached binary XX Cephei (XX Cep) during 15 nights from 2002 September 17 to 2003 February 2, and also on 2005 January 21. Except for those data taken on the last night of the concentrated observing season, the 3881 measurements were obtained over an interval of only 106 nights. From these data, four new times of minimum light were calculated. The  (O− C)  diagram formed from all available timings, and thus the orbital period of the system, can be partly represented as a beat effect between two cyclical variations with different periods (      yr,      yr) and amplitudes  ( K ₁=0.015 d, K ₂=0.103 d)  , respectively. Both physical and non-physical interpretations of these cycles were investigated. The long-term sinusoidal variation is too long for magnetic cycling in solar-type single and close binary stars. In addition, we have studied the effect of a possible secular period variation. By analysing the residuals from our Wilson–Devinney (WD) binary model, we found small light variations with a period of 5.99 d with amplitudes growing toward longer wavelengths. We think that these oscillations may be produced by instabilities at the systemic L ₁ point (also occupied by the point of the cool star) and that these instabilities are, in turn, caused by non-uniform and sporadic convection. There is also a short-period oscillation of about 45 min in the WD light residuals that is attributed to accretion on to the mass-gaining primary component from a feeble gas stream originating on the cool donor star.     

Multi‐depth monitoring of electrical conductivity and temperature of groundwater at a multilayered coastal aquifer: Jeju Island,Korea

To supplement conventional geophysical log data, this study presents temporal variations in electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature with depth in a multilayered coastal aquifer, on the eastern part of Jeju Island, Korea. One‐month time‐series data obtained at eight points from a multi‐depth monitoring system showed that semidiurnal and semimonthly tidal variations induced dynamic fluctuations in EC and temperature. At some depths, EC ranged from 1483 to 26 822 µS cm^?1, while some points showed no significant variations. The results of EC log and time‐series data revealed that a sharp fresh‐saltwater interface occurred at low tide, but the diffusion zone broadened to 20 m at high tide. EC, temperature, and tide level data were used for the cross‐correlation analysis. The response time of EC and temperature to tide appears to range from less than 30 min to 11 h. Using end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA), the fraction of variations of chloride concentration in the multilayered aquifer was explained, and a conceptual model was developed which subdivided the coastal aquifer into four vertical zones. The percentage of water derived from seawater varied from 2 to 48 at specific depth, owing to tidal fluctuations. Continuous observations of EC and temperature at multiple depths are powerful tools for quantifying the transport of saline water by tidal variations in multilayered coastal aquifers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Meteorological responses to Mt. Baekdu volcanic eruption over east asia in an offline global climate-chemistry model: A pilot study

We examine the meteorological responses due to the probable eruption of Mt. Baekdu using an off-line Climate-Chemistry model that is composed of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and a global chemistry transport model (GEOS-Chem). Using the aerosol dataset from the GEOS-Chem driven by GEOS-5 meteorology, experiment and control simulations of the climate model are performed and their meteorological differences between the two simulations are analyzed. The magnitudes of volcanic eruption and column injection height were presumably set to 1/200 of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and 9 km, respectively. Significant temperature drop in the lower troposphere (850 hPa), which is mainly due to a direct effect of prescribed volcanic aerosols from Mt. Baekdu, has been simulated up to about ?4 K. The upper atmosphere (150 hPa) right above the volcano, however, shows significant warming due to the absorption of the infrared radiation by volcanic aerosols. As a result of the volcanic eruption in the climate model, wave-like patterns are shown in both the geopotential height and horizontal wind. The changes in the lower atmospheric temperature are well associated with the modification of the atmospheric circulation through the hydrostatic balance. In spite of limitations in our current simulations due to several underlying assumptions, our results could give a clue to understanding the meteorological impacts from Mt. Baekdu eruptions that are currently attracting considerable public attention.     

Efficiency of the modal shift and environmental policy on the Korean railroad

The Kyoto Protocol calls for industrialized nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from 1990 levels by 2008–2012, so developed countries are presenting various policies to reduce greenhouse gas that is produced in transport fields. One of those polices is a modal shift that changes from road freight to sea, inland waterways and railroad transportation that is eco-friendly. The increase of road freight brings road congestion, accidents, logistic costs, air pollution and greenhouse gases. Railroads are superior to the other modes of transportation in mass transportability, high speed, timeliness, safety and environmental-friendliness, but the railway industry has been pushed behind in competition. Korean railroads were used by passengers and for freight transport popularly until the middle of the 20th century. However, because of the sudden change of logistics environments, having time efficiency being most important, railroads lost logistic competitive power against the transportation by truck. This paper intends to examine the modal shift to railroad transportation, which enjoys high interest as environmentally-friendly logistics, i.e., the modal shift strategy. Efficiency analysis is conducted using DEA and exploratory factors are identified for the modal shift of the companies. This paper also proposes an alternative plan for green logistics and environmentally-friendly logistics, by analyzing the characteristics of the railroad cargo transportation system and the conditions of local railroad cargo transportation.