The 1511 Eastern Alps earthquakes: a critical update and comparison of existing macroseismic datasets

Three earthquakes condition the seismic hazard estimates of the Eastern Alps: the 1348 “Villach”, the 1511 “Idrija”, and the 1976 Gemona events. Only the last one can be well documented, while doubts remain for location and size of the other two. New documents have been found about the 1511 quake that, together with a complete revision of the information already available, offer some new indications on the location and size of the event.     

Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory,perspectives and practical use

Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models’ outcomes to their origins in different macro-economic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macro-innovation theory and group them into two classes: ‘Equilibrium’ and ‘Non-equilibrium’. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall ‘black box’ critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere.

Key policy insights

• Quantitative models commissioned by policy-makers to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate policy generate contradictory outcomes and interpretations.

• The source of the differences in model outcomes originates primarily from assumptions on the workings of the financial sector and the nature of money, and of how these interact with processes of low-carbon energy innovation and technological change.

• Representations of innovation and technological change are incomplete in energy-economy-environment models, leading to limitations in the assessment of the impacts of climate-related policies.

• All modelling studies should state clearly their underpinning theoretical school and their treatment of finance and innovation.

• A strong recommendation is given for modellers of energy-economy systems to improve their representations of money and finance.

     

Compositional analysis of Yayoi‐Heian period ceramics from Okinawa: Examining the potential for provenance study

In Okinawa, locally produced pottery dates back to the Initial Jomon period (˜6500 ¹⁴C yr B.P.). Later in time, especially during the Early Yayoi‐Heian period (˜300 B.C.–A.D. 300), ceramic assemblages appear to contain mainland (Japan) Yayoi pottery. A greater number of these sherds present in Okinawa over time coincide with an increasing amount of interaction with mainland Japan, as evidenced by other exchange items. In this preliminary study, the authors analyzed sherds from several Early Yayoi‐Heian period deposits from sites in Okinawa using thin‐section petrography and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS). The objective was to examine the applicability of these techniques for Okinawan ceramic provenance studies, assess intra‐ and intersite variation in mineralogical and chemical composition, and determine whether some sites exhibited a higher frequency of pottery from one locale versus another that might suggest the importation of pottery from mainland Japan. Results are equivocal, suggesting that the region's geological complexity may inhibit successful provenance study of ceramics using these and possibly other compositional techniques. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Dipolar magnetic moment of the bodies of the solar system and the Hot Jupiters

Context

The planets magnetic field has been explained based on the dynamo theory, which presents as many difficulties in mathematical terms as well as in predictions. It proves to be extremely difficult to calculate the dipolar magnetic moment of the extrasolar planets using the dynamo theory.

Objective

The aim is to find an empirical relationship (justifying using first principles) between the planetary magnetic moment, the mass of the planet, its rotation period and the electrical conductivity of its most conductive layer. Then this is applied to Hot Jupiters.

Method

Using all the magnetic planetary bodies of the solar system and tracing a graph of the dipolar magnetic moment versus body mass parameter, the rotation period and electrical conductivity of the internal conductive layer is obtained. An empirical, functional relation was constructed, which was adjusted to a power law curve in order to fit the data. Once this empirical relation has been defined, it is theoretically justified and applied to the calculation of the dipolar magnetic moment of the extra solar planets known as Hot Jupiters.

Results

Almost all data calculated is interpolated, bestowing confidence in terms of their validity. The value for the dipolar magnetic moment, obtained for the exoplanet Osiris (HD209458b), helps understand the way in which the atmosphere of a planet with an intense magnetic field can be eroded by stellar wind. The relationship observed also helps understand why Venus and Mars do not present any magnetic field.     

Acoustic mapping of fish aggregation areas to improve fisheries management in Las Perlas Archipelago,Pacific Panama

The purpose of this study was to investigate, characterize and map areas of the seabed of Las Perlas Archipelago (LPA), Republic of Panama using swath-bathymetry acoustic sonar techniques and to assess these methods as tools for feeding information into management zoning policy. In 2007 the LPA was granted conservation protection under national legislation. However, detailed management plans are still pending. Seabed mapping plays a fundamental role in identifying areas which should be prioritized within the management framework. Visual representation of habitat maps provides an effective medium for involving stakeholders in a co-management arena. In this survey, acoustically mapped areas of the seabed were ground-truthed using a combination of benthic grab samples, drop-down video and diver observations. The resulting mapped areas were then incorporated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) for further analysis. The output was a physical characterization of the seabed at three locations selected for being areas of high rugosity (habitat complexity) and, therefore, their potential importance as valuable fish aggregation sites. The rocky reefs and rhodolith beds identified in this survey represent particularly important fish aggregation and nursery habitats which should be considered priorities for protection under the management plans. This survey demonstrated the use of acoustic techniques to spatially resolve topographic features and physical characteristics of the seabed, illustrating their potential value as tools for fisheries management and marine reserve zoning in Las Perlas Archipelago and elsewhere.     

Quaternary Aquifer of the North China Plain—assessing and achieving groundwater resource sustainability

The Quaternary Aquifer of the North China Plain is one of the worlds largest aquifer systems and supports an enormous exploitation of groundwater, which has reaped large socio-economic benefits in terms of grain production, farming employment and rural poverty alleviation, together with urban and industrial water-supply provision. Both population and economic activity have grown markedly in the past 25 years. Much of this has been heavily dependent upon groundwater resource development, which has encountered increasing difficulties in recent years primarily as a result of aquifer depletion and related phenomena. This paper focuses upon the hydrogeologic and socio-economic diagnosis of these groundwater resource issues, and identifies strategies to improve groundwater resource sustainability.

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Resumen El acuífero cuaternario de la Llanura Septentrional de China es uno de los mayores sistemas acuíferos del mundo y soporta una enorme explotación de su agua subterránea, las cuales han originado grandes beneficios socioeconómicos en términos de producción de grano, empleo en agricultura y mitigación de la pobreza rural, además de proveer agua para abastecimiento urbano e industria. Tanto la población como la actividad económica han crecido mucho en los últimos 25 años con una gran dependencia de las aguas subterráneas, que ha encontrado dificultades recientes por la explotación intensiva del acuífero y fenómenos relacionados. Este artículo se centra en la diagnosis hidrogeológica y socioeconómica de los problemas relacionados con las aguas subterráneas e identifica estrategias para mejorar la sustentabilidad de este recurco.

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Résumé Laquifère Quaternaire de la Plaine du Nord de la Chine est lun des plus grands systèmes aquifères du monde; il permet une exploitation énorme deau souterraine, qui a permis des très importants bénéfices socio-économiques en terme de production de céréales, demplois ruraux et de réduction de la pauvreté rurale, en même temps que lapprovisionnement en eau potable et pour lindustrie. La population comme lactivité économique ont remarquablement augmenté au cours de ces 25 dernières années. Elles ont été sous la forte dépendance du développement de la ressource en eau souterraine, qui a rencontré des difficultés croissantes ces dernières années, du fait du rabattement de laquifère et des phénomènes associés. Cet article est consacré aux diagnostiques hydrogéologique et socio-économique des retombées de cette ressource en eau souterraine; il identifie les stratégies pour améliorer la pérennité des ressources en eau souterraine.

     

The prevalence of second harmonic radiation in type III bursts observed at kilometric wavelengths

We present the analysis of 64 type III solar bursts that drifted from 3.5 MHz down to the range 350-50 kHz between March 1968 and February 1970. Bursts arrival times were predicted by a simple model and then compared with observations. The results show that, as the bursts drift, the fundamental often disappears below a certain frequency range while the second harmonic remains. Below about 1 MHz the second harmonic occurrence predominates. Recognizing this fact we deduce a mean velocity of 0.32c±0.02c for the exciter particles, where the uncertainty is the standard error and c the velocity of light in vacuum; the electron density model used is comparable to a solar wind model.