Climate warming, water storage, and Chinook salmon in California’s Sacramento Valley

The Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawns and rears in the cold, freshwater rivers and tributaries of California’s Central Valley, with four separate seasonal runs including fall and late-fall runs, a winter run, and a spring run. Dams and reservoirs have blocked access to most of the Chinook’s ancestral spawning areas in the upper reaches and tributaries. Consequently, the fish rely on the mainstem of the Sacramento River for spawning habitat. Future climatic warming could lead to alterations of the river’s temperature regime, which could further reduce the already fragmented Chinook habitat. Specifically, increased water temperatures could result in spawning and rearing temperature exceedences, thereby jeopardizing productivity, particularly in drought years. Paradoxically, water management plays a key role in potential adaptation options by maintaining spawning and rearing habitat now and in the future, as reservoirs such as Shasta provide a cold water supply that will be increasingly needed to counter the effects of climate change. Results suggest that the available cold pool behind Shasta could be maintained throughout the summer assuming median projections of mid-21st century warming of 2°C, but the maintenance of the cold pool with warming on the order of 4°C could be very challenging. The winter and spring runs are shown to be most at risk because of the timing of their reproduction.     

Reduced-order modeling for thermal recovery processes

Thermal recovery can entail considerably higher costs than conventional oil recovery, so the use of computational optimization techniques in designing and operating these processes may be beneficial. Optimization, however, requires many simulations, which results in substantial computational cost. Here, we implement a model-order reduction technique that aims at large reductions in computational requirements. The technique considered, trajectory piecewise linearization (TPWL), entails the representation of new solutions in terms of linearizations around previously simulated (and saved) training solutions. The linearized representation is projected into a low-dimensional space, with the projection matrix constructed through proper orthogonal decomposition of solution “snapshots” generated in the training step. Two idealized problems are considered here: primary production of oil driven by downhole heaters and a simplified model for steam-assisted gravity drainage, where water and steam are treated as a single “effective” phase. The strong temperature dependence of oil viscosity is included in both cases. TPWL results for these systems demonstrate that the method can provide accurate predictions relative to full-order reference solutions. Observed runtime speedups are very substantial, over 2 orders of magnitude for the cases considered. The overhead associated with TPWL model construction is equivalent to the computation time for several full-order simulations (the precise overhead depends on the number of training runs), so the method is only applicable if many simulations are to be performed.     

The Catalan seismic crisis (1427 and 1428; NE Iberian Peninsula): Geological sources and earthquake triggering

The Catalan seismic crisis of the years 1427 and 1428 is one of the most destructive seismic episodes that happened in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula in historical times. The main earthquakes of this crisis occurred on March 19th 1427 in the zone around Amer (I_EMS-98 = VIII), May 15th 1427 in the vicinity of Olot (I_EMS-98 = VIII) and on February 2nd 1428 in the area close to Camprodon (I_EMS-98 = IX). There is much evidence that the Amer fault produced the first two events of this crisis, but is still uncertain which fault generated the earthquake on February 2nd 1428. Using newly available macroseismic data, the earthquake area sources of the three main earthquakes of the crisis have been obtained and they corroborate that the Amer fault may be the origin of the first two events. However, the area source corresponding to the last earthquake of the crisis cannot be associated to a single fault and indicates three possible candidates: the Vallfogona and Ribes-Camprodon thrusts and the Amer normal fault. Modeling of the Coulomb failure stress transfer has been performed to help determine the best candidate responsible for the February event. The results of the modeling points to: (a) a triggering relationship between the three main events of the crisis and (b) the Amer fault, or a similar extensional fault close and parallel to it, as the most probable origin of the earthquake on February 2nd 1428.     

Kilometer-wave type III burst: Harmonic emission revealed by direction and time of arrival

A type III solar burst was observed at seven frequencies between 3.5 MHz and 80 kHz by the Michigan experiment aboard the IMP-6 satellite. From the data we can determine burst direction-of-arrival as well as time-of-arrival. We predict these quantities using simple models whose parameters we vary to obtain a good fit to the observations. We find that between 3.5 MHz and 230 kHz the observed radiation was emitted at the fundamental of the local plasma frequency while below 230 kHz it was emitted at the second harmonic. The exciter particles that produced the burst onset and burst peak have velocities of 0.27 and 0.12, respectively, in units of the velocity of light.     

Climate change and population history in the Pacific Lowlands of Southern Mesoamerica

Core MAN015 from Pacific coastal Guatemala contains sediments accumulated in a mangrove setting over the past 6500 yr. Chemical, pollen, and phytolith data, which indicate conditions of estuarine deposition and terrigenous inputs from adjacent dry land, document Holocene climate variability that parallels the Maya lowlands and other New World tropical locations. Human population history in this region may be driven partly by climate variation: sedentary human populations spread rapidly through the estuarine zone of the lower coast during a dry and variable 4th millennium B.P. Population growth and cultural florescence during a long, relatively moist period (2800–1200 B.P.) ended around 1200 B.P., a drying event that coincided with the Classic Maya collapse.     

Partition of arsenic in soils sediments and the origin of naturally elevated concentrations in groundwater of the southern pampa region (Argentina)

Excessive arsenic concentrations above the Argentinean and WHO guidelines for drinking water (10 μg L⁻¹) affects shallow aquifers of the southern Pampean Plain (Argentina) hosted in the Pampean and the Post Pampean formations (loess and reworked loess; Plio-Pleistocene–Holocene). Health problems related to high As concentrations in drinking waters are known as Endemic Regional Chronic Hydroarsenicism. Hydrochemistry of shallow groundwaters and soil geochemistry were investigated aiming to (1) understand the partition of As in the solid phase and its relationship with unacceptable As concentrations in waters, (2) identify the provision source of As to groundwaters. Only 5% of the samples had As concentrations <10 μg L⁻¹; in 27% As concentrations ranged from 10 to 50 μg L⁻¹ and in 58% it reached 60–500 μg L⁻¹. The coarse fraction (50–2,000 μm) hosts about 27% of the total As in the solid phase, being positively correlated to Ba (p < 0.01; r ² = 0.93). About 70% is included in the <2 μm fraction and had positive correlations of As–Fe (p < 0.05; r ² = 0.85) and As–Cr (p < 0.05; r ² = 0.68). Soils and sediment sand fractions of vadose zones are the primary sources of As in shallow groundwater while adsorption–desorption processes, codisolution–coprecipitation, and evaporation during the dry seasons raise As concentrations in waters exceeding the guideline value for drinking water.     

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.

     

Hydrogeochemical Analysis of Processes Through Modeling of Seawater Intrusion Impacts in Biscayne Aquifer Water Quality,USA

Hydrogeochemical processes that accompany seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers can alter the resulting water quality and are important ingredients in coastal aquifer management. The presence of dissolution–precipitation reactions and ion exchange in the mixing zone of the Biscayne aquifer (FL, USA) are suggested based on changes in major ion concentrations and mineral saturation indices (SI). Major ion concentrations from 11 groundwater samples are compared with theoretical mixing between freshwater and seawater. PHREEQC code was used to calculate saturation indices of the samples with respect to common phases in the Biscayne aquifer. High Ca²⁺ and HCO₃ ^? content of the samples is typical of waters in contact with carbonate aquifers. Water quality of the samples is mainly attributed to mixing and precipitation–dissolution reactions with calcite and dolomite. The samples were saturated with calcite (SI ~ 0) and undersaturated for dolomite (SI < 0), while a few samples showed dolomite saturation. Because gypsum and halite SI could be predicted by theoretical mixing, reactions with those minerals, if present, are thought to be insignificant. In the active intrusion areas, cation exchange also appears to modify water quality leading to excess Ca²⁺, but depleted Na⁺, Mg²⁺ and K⁺ concentrations. On the other hand, samples from previous intrusion areas plotted very close to the theoretical mixing line and approached equilibrium with the seawater.