Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar‐based nowcasting models

The overall objective of this study is to improve the forecasting accuracy of the precipitation in the Singapore region by means of both rainfall forecasting and nowcasting. Numerical Weather Predication (NWP) and radar‐based rainfall nowcasting are two important sources for quantitative precipitation forecast. In this paper, an attempt to combine rainfall prediction from a high‐resolution mesoscale weather model and a radar‐based rainfall model was performed. Two rainfall forecasting methods were selected and examined: (i) the weather research and forecasting model (WRF); and (ii) a translation model (TM). The WRF model, at a high spatial resolution, was run over the domain of interest using the Global Forecast System data as initializing fields. Some heavy rainfall events were selected from data record and used to test the forecast capability of WRF and TM. Results obtained from TM and WRF were then combined together to form an ensemble rainfall forecasting model, by assigning weights of 0.7 and 0.3 weights to TM and WRF, respectively. This paper presented results from WRF and TM, and the resulting ensemble rainfall forecasting; comparisons with station data were conducted as well. It was shown that results from WRF are very useful as advisory of anticipated heavy rainfall events, whereas those from TM, which used information of rain cells already appearing on the radar screen, were more accurate for rainfall nowcasting as expected. The ensemble rainfall forecasting compares reasonably well with the station observation data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

土压力滑楔理论的统一解

基于滑楔理论计算土压力的基本原理,运用考虑中间主应力效应的统一强度理论,对传统的土压力公式不能反映土体材料强度的中间主应力效应的公式进行了改进,推导了基于滑楔理论的土压力统一解公式,Coulomb和Rankine土压力公式为其特例.通过变换统一强度参数,可获得一系列的解.在工程运用中可根据土质和工程的实际情况,适当选择统一强度参数和应力状态来确定土压力的大小.     

北秦岭火山岩岩石化学特征和成因

北秦岭存在A、B、C三类火山岩系列,对应着幔源型、壳幔混染型和壳幔混合型成因类型。火山岩系列和成因类型的系统变化,反映了多旋回壳幔物质迁移特证。     

Impact of the Kuroshio Current on the South China Sea based on a 115 000 year diatom record

We used the tropical oceanic planktonic diatom species Nitzschia marina, Rhizosolenia bergonii and Azpeitia africana/Azpeitia neocrenulata, most commonly found in the surface sediments of the northeasternmost South China Sea (SCS) where the Kuroshio Current enters the SCS through the Bashi Strait north of Luzon, to analyse the influence of the the Kuroshio Current on the SCS. The impact of the Kuroshio Current seems to be relatively strong during major warm periods and, to a lesser degree, in minor warm periods during the last 115 000 years. The strongest influence took place during the main part of the Holocene and during the very late phase of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e. It is possible to distinguish two magnitudes of change in the impact of the Kuroshio Current on the SCS: large changes occurred at shifts between glacial and interglacial conditions, while smaller changes seem to have recurred in both glacial and interglacial episodes as well as during the Holocene. Climatic/oceanographic changes and sea‐level variations were possibly the two most important mechanisms for the varying influences of the Kuroshio Current on the SCS. The interaction between the Kuroshio Current and monsoon‐related processes may also have played a role. However, because of restricted knowledge of the present‐day Kuroshio Current and the absence of a modern analogue to the ancient SCS due to the marked changes in palaeogeography, this relationship is difficult to establish. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scattering of elastic wave by a partially sealed cylindrical shell embedded in poroelastic medium

Scattering of an elastic wave by a cylindrical shell embedded in poroelastic medium is investigated theoretically with the assumption that the shell material is also a porous elastic medium. The porous medium is modellized via Biot's theory and the scattering by cylindrical shell is expressed by the definition of scattering matrix. The normal mode expansion technique is employed for analysing the scattering field, and the asymptotic solutions of displacements, stresses and pore pressure are derived. Two limiting cases‐scattering by a poroelastic cylinder in Biot medium and a elastic cylindrical shell in elastic medium are obtained from the general solutions. The dispersion curves of displacement amplitude at the interface of shell and medium is compared with the case of elastic shell. The scattering amplitude associated with the fast, slow and transverse waves are identified by numerical simulation. Furthermore, the influence of the poroelastic property of shell material on scattering amplitude is analysed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

六个色球活动双星的H_a观测和研究

１９９０年８月至１９９１年８月期间，利用云南天文台１ｍ望远镜折轴摄谱仪附加厚片ＣＣＤ探测器进行了观测，得到二十余颗色球活动双星的大色散、高分辨率，高信噪比的光谱，本文发表其中ηＡｎｄ、３Ｃａｍ、４ＵＭｉ、ｖ２Ｓｇｒ、Ｓｇｒ、ＨＲ７３３３六个双星系统的Ｈａ附近区域光谱观测和研究结果。这六个系统在ＣＡＢＳ表中有关Ｈａ线的资料还是空白。我们给出了它们高分辨率的Ｈａ线轮廓图，计算了它们的等值宽度、半宽、Ｈａ线心的视向速度以及３条金属线视向速度．由观测结果表明，ηＡｎｄ双星的Ｈａ线在不同位相变化不大，没有观测到它的色球活动．３Ｃａｍ由于受色球活动的影响，在０．１５４位相时Ｈａ轮廓发生了突变，其等值宽度明显小于其它位相的等值宽度．４ＵＭｉ的Ｈａ线也是吸收线，但由于受色球活动的影响，致使Ｈａ线心部分受到发射的填充．Ｓｇｒ和ｖ２Ｓｇｒ的光谱Ｈａ线都属于吸收线，没有发现色球活动的影响，很可能不是色球活动星．ＨＲ７３３３是个色球活动比较剧烈的双星，Ｈａ吸收线受到了色球活动引起的发射填充，而且填充量较大．     

ESR DATING OF FLUVIAL SEDIMENTS USING GE CENTER IN QUARTZ

Using the Ge centers of quartz sediments, the buried ages of fluvial sediments were determined by ESR technique. The ESR ages obtained from Ge centers are consistent with the TL ages, correspond with their horizons, accord with the geological background, and every ESR age is available. In this paper, determination of total dose of natural radiation (TD) and the reliability of ESR age using Ge center are also discussed.     

GPS共视法时间比对在陕西天文台的建立

利用国产GPS定时型接收机,按照国际共视规程,陕西天文台建立了GPS共视法时间比对.研究了影响比对精度的因素,实现了微机控制的数据自动采集和处理,实现了国际间的全面共视比对.1991年3月起,BIPM已正式用于国际原子时TAI的计算中。     

神经网络专家系统外壳

神经网络专家系统外壳软件,是用于帮助用户迅速开发直观图形解释的人工智能业务应用系统。它以直观的屏幕树图为媒介,实现了正、反向推理机、语义网络、神经元网络、框架结构、知识库管理和算术表达式树图等整体宏观统一;实现了专家系统与人工神经元网络、定性分析与定量计算的统一;无监督分类与监督分类的统一。因此,它的应用范围很广。     

倾斜矢量图正常年变化破坏的机理研究

根据云南省楚雄、永胜台的倾斜矢量图在强震前正常年变化被破坏的事实,探讨了矢量图面积异常与地震的关系。认为矢量图所围面积的变化与地下水的作用固然有一定的关系,而起决定作用的是地震前应变积累的程度。倾斜矢量图面积的减小可以作为预报的一项参考指标。