1990年以来辽宁省环境与经济协调度评价

环境与经济协调发展是实现可持续发展的重要途径。关于环境与经济协调发展程度的定量评价方法和理论目前尚未成熟,从环境与经济协调发展及其协调度的概念出发,利用因子分析与相关分析相结合的方法设计了一套环境与经济协调度的定量评价方法,并对1990年以来辽宁省环境与经济协调发展状况进行了定量评价,结果表明:1990年以来辽宁省环境与经济协调状况经历了从失调向初级协调的转变过程,环境与经济协调度的发展大致呈“V”型趋势变化,“九五”时期是协调状态由失调向初级协调的过渡阶段,1997年以后环境与经济处于初级协调状态。对辽宁省环境与经济协调度的限制因子进行了分析,指出能源和水资源短缺、工业三废排放量大、局部地区生态环境问题突出、区域经济差距扩大等因素将长期制约辽宁省环境与经济协调发展。     

沟谷型沙漠泥流堆积体起动过程中的孔压变化特性

以黄河上游宁蒙段典型风水复合侵蚀流域为研究区域,重点针对堆积体堵塞沟道极端条件下的沟谷型沙漠泥流,从堆积体起动成灾的环节入手,开展直槽概化模型试验,并采用基于有效应力原理的流固耦合模型,概化模拟上游暴雨洪水入渗条件下堆积体内孔隙水压力变化特性及其起动过程,从微观角度揭示其成灾机理。结果表明：堆积体起动过程中孔隙水压力与时间呈指数为0.5的幂函数关系;流固耦合作用下堆积体内经历了应力场→体积应变→孔隙率→孔隙水压力→渗流场→塑性应变→屈服破坏的复杂非线性变化过程。     

“全新特提斯洋”概念与广义特提斯构造域

特提斯最初是指欧亚大陆南缘的古海洋,后逐渐引申出从元古宙、古生代到中生代的一系列位于劳亚大陆与冈瓦纳大陆之间的古大洋,如原特提斯洋、古特提斯洋和新特提斯洋,不同大洋在时间上前后交叠。如今横亘在冈瓦纳大陆(南极洲)和欧亚大陆之间的是印度洋,是新特提斯洋的继承者,可以另称为“全新特提斯洋”。这一概念的引申直接体现了印度洋与特提斯构造域一脉相承的关系,有助于将今论古、由此及彼,更直观地了解特提斯构造域的演化过程。本文按时间序列梳理了印度洋的大地构造演化和岩浆作用过程,识别了印度洋在155 Ma、120 Ma、90～84 Ma、76 Ma、65 Ma、52 Ma、45 Ma、38 Ma等关键时期的异常海底扩张记录,这些扩张事件将为标定新特提斯构造域的演化提供参照。其中155 Ma可能指示了新特提斯洋的鼎盛期,90 Ma指示了新特提斯洋的洋中脊俯冲,76～52 Ma是非洲-阿拉伯大陆与欧亚大陆初始碰撞-主碰撞(即新特提斯洋西部关闭)的时期,65～45 Ma是印度次大陆与欧亚大陆初始碰撞-主碰撞(即新特提斯洋中部关闭)的时期,38 Ma是澳大利亚北部大洋开始净俯冲(即新提斯洋东部开始消减)的时间。...     

Climatology of Shear Line and Related Rainstorm over the Southern Yangtze River Valley Based on an Improved Intelligent Identification Method

Based on four reanalysis datasets including CMA-RA, ERA5, ERA-Interim, and FNL, this paper proposes an improved intelligent method for shear line identification by introducing a second-order zonal-wind shear. Climatic characteristics of shear lines and related rainstorms over the Southern Yangtze River Valley(SYRV) during the summers(June-August) from 2008 to 2018 are then analyzed by using two types of unsupervised machine learning algorithm,namely the t-distributed stochastic neighbor embeddin...     

Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.     

A simplified approach for settlement analysis of single pile and pile groups considering interaction between identical piles in multilayered soils

A new and simple approach is presented to analyze the elastic–plastic behavior of a single pile in layered soils using two models. One model adopts a hyperbolic approach to describe the nonlinear relationship between the shaft shear stresses and the displacement surrounding the pile shaft, and the other model uses a bilinear hardening model to simulate the relationship between the settlement and the mobilized load at the pile end. Furthermore, the interaction between identical piles including the pile shaft and the base interaction in multilayered soils is analyzed. Comparisons of the load–settlement responses for two well-instrumented field tests in multilayered soils are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed simple method. This present paper enables a quick estimate of the settlement of a single pile and a pile group embedded in layered soils, resulting in savings in time and cost.     

Sensitivity experiments on summer monsoon circulation cell in east asia

The East-Asian summer monsoon meridional circulation (SMMC) cell is simulated together with two vigorous rainbands in terms of a primitive-equation model including in itself a variety of diabatic heating, frictional dissipation and moist processes under the condition of mountains available. Results are comparable to observations. Also, performed are experiments with the reduction of water content, and exclusion of the cumulus convective process and mountain effect. Contrast analyses indicate that the cell is strongly sensitive to the condition of the humidity field in the atmosphere, more intensely at 120o than at 100oE, and the presence (absence) of the cumulus convection has considerable effect on the intensification (weakening) of the cell, with the mountain ranges exhibiting more influence upon the cell at 100o than 120oE. This may suggest that a great difference lies in the cause of the cell for the two meridions.     

5—10月全球热带和副热带200hPa多年平均环流的研究(一)——行星尺度环流系统

本文用近13年200hPa高空风资料得到了夏半年(5—10月)逐月平均全球热带风场,发现如下一些主要结果: (1)在亚洲地区对流层上部反气旋存在两个中心;一个在青藏高原上空;一个在伊朗和阿富汗地区。两者的演变不同。伊朗高压的北推和撤退都比青藏高原上的早。北美墨西哥高压的变化在时间上与伊朗高压很相似。 (2)北太平洋中部高空槽(TUTT)出现在5—10月,8月份最强,位置最北;北大西洋中部高空槽出现在5—9月,7—8月最强。 (3)南半球冬季有三个主要的长波脊和长波槽,分别位于大陆以西和以东海区。     

积雨云中微物理过程的数值模拟——(二)阵雨、冰雹、暴雨的个例研究

用文(一)的微物理模式在一维时变动力学框架里模拟了江西阵雨云,75·8暴雨和张家口冰雹云。用实测探空作为输入,计算结果同实测的云降水和雷达回波特征相比,在很多方面相当一致。它展示了暴雨云的持续性和冰雹云的低降水效率等,表明了在这些云底较暖的积雨云中贝吉隆过程对降水作用不大,而暖雨过程则是启动降水的主要环节。     

Influence of “stress reversal” on rock resistivity during loading procedure

The properties of rock resitivity were studied under pressure, particularly with “stress reversal”, a procedure in which the pressure applied was increased and decreased. It was observed that, 1) With pressure increasing, the main feature of resistivity change was increase-steady-decrease for high-saturation rock samples (saturation 70–100%). But the main feature for low-saturation samples was different. 2) In 10 out of 11 cases of “stress reversal” for high-saturation samples the resistivity droped (about 2%). Such drop could explain the anomalies in geoelectricity terms, which are commonly observed before earthquakes in China. 3) It was also observed shortly before rock failure that, a) the resistivity drops more dramatically (about 20%) during “stress reversal” period, which is much more than ordinary drops. b) these drops occurred not only during stress decrease but also during stress increase. c) Resistivity exhibits anisotropy: the resistivity along different directions may differ by 10%. These three features may indicate that the rock is nearing failure, while ordinary resistivity drops are only connected with “stress reversal” and may not mean the imminence of rock failure. 4) Resistivity increase was observed during the “stress reversal” period for low-saturation rock samples. The results mentioned above were explained with the effect of water flowing in and out of the cracks of rock. The temporary factors which yield a reduction of the maximum main stress, may enhence the possibility of earthquake occurrence.