Verification of route-based road weather forecasts

Route-based road weather forecasting is increasingly becoming the standard methodology for winter maintenance decision making (i.e. whether or not to salt the road network) by the highway industry in the UK. Route-based forecasting requires, for the first time, the accuracy of forecasts around routes and away from sensor sites to be verified. This is essential so that end users have confidence in the models’ ability to accurately predict road surface temperature at every point around their road network. A new methodology for verifying route-based forecasts is proposed that uses clustering techniques to create clusters of forecast points with similar geographical and infrastructure characteristics. This facilitates the analysis of forecast statistics at the cluster level, which is found to improve statistical assessment of model performance since verification can be achieved at a much higher resolution than the current methodology allows. Furthermore, verification of the full spatial extent of a route-based forecast can be achieved with fewer forecast points since the majority of thermal variations around the road network are well represented by the clustering solutions. A new sampling strategy is proposed that potentially enables verification at the full spatial and temporal resolution.     

Meteoroids, Meteors, and the Near-Earth Object Impact Hazard

In considering the modern-day hazard from infalling near-Earth asteroids and comets, the focus has shifted toward the smallest, most frequent impacts that can do damage on the ground, like the 1908 Tunguska aerial burst. There is considerable uncertainty about the potential for damage by objects in the range 20 to 100 m diameter. Since smaller, less dangerous, meter-sized meteoroids are part of a continuum of small interplanetary bodies, derived by a collisional cascade and Yarkovsky spin-up, research on such phenomena by meteor scientists can shed light on a vital question that will soon have great practical relevance as new telescopic searches for near-Earth asteroids come on line: what is the threshold size between harmless high-altitude airbursts and impacts that can cause lethal damage on the ground?     

Magnetic flux changes associated with the solar flares of August 1972

The active region associated with Mt. Wilson sunspot group 18 935 (McMath, 11 976) which had a central meridian passage on August 4 and 5, 1972 produced a number of flares during transit. These included two importance 3B flares on August 4 and 7 as well as several of importance 1 and 2. Calculations of the total magnetic flux in this region were made during the period July 31 through August 9 using data from six observatories. For the 3B flare on August 4, the total flux changed from about 7.2 × 10²² Mx just before onset to about 5.6 × 10²² Mx two hours after onset. For the 3B flare on August 7, the flux was about 6.4 × 10²² Mx three hours before onset and about 5.2 × 10²² Mx three hours after onset. An importance 2B flare on August 2 had no measurable effect on the flux nor did any of several 1N or 1B flares which also occurred in this region during the period. The flux changes measured for the 3B flares occurred in the umbral and penumbral fields and no significant changes were observed in facular fields.The Aerospace Corporation, P.O. Box 92957, Los Angeles, Calif. 90009, U.S.A.