Validation of numerical ground water models used to guide decision making

Many sites of ground water contamination rely heavily on complex numerical models of flow and transport to develop closure plans. This complexity has created a need for tools and approaches that can build confidence in model predictions and provide evidence that these predictions are sufficient for decision making. Confidence building is a long-term, iterative process and the author believes that this process should be termed model validation. Model validation is a process, not an end result. That is, the process of model validation cannot ensure acceptable prediction or quality of the model. Rather, it provides an important safeguard against faulty models or inadequately developed and tested models. If model results become the basis for decision making, then the validation process provides evidence that the model is valid for making decisions (not necessarily a true representation of reality). Validation, verification, and confirmation are concepts associated with ground water numerical models that not only do not represent established and generally accepted practices, but there is not even widespread agreement on the meaning of the terms as applied to models. This paper presents a review of model validation studies that pertain to ground water flow and transport modeling. Definitions, literature debates, previously proposed validation strategies, and conferences and symposia that focused on subsurface model validation are reviewed and discussed. The review is general and focuses on site-specific, predictive ground water models used for making decisions regarding remediation activities and site closure. The aim is to provide a reasonable starting point for hydrogeologists facing model validation for ground water systems, thus saving a significant amount of time, effort, and cost. This review is also aimed at reviving the issue of model validation in the hydrogeologic community and stimulating the thinking of researchers and practitioners to develop practical and efficient tools for evaluating and refining ground water predictive models.     

A Parametric Study on Stability of Open Excavations in Alluvial Soils of Lahore District, Pakistan

Rapid urbanization and expansion of metropolitans in the developing world is pressing the need of tall structures with multiple basements. In several such projects, open land is available around excavation site and unsupported deep excavations by maintaining appropriate side slopes offer economical solution. In this research, subsoil stratigraphy of Lahore district was established to be comprising of a top clay stratum 1.5–8 m thick, followed by a sand layer. Considering subsoil data from several geotechnical investigation reports, the effect of four key parameters viz., cohesion of clay layer, friction angle of sand layer, thickness of clay layer at the top and slope inclination of underlying sand layer on safety factor of open excavations was studied. Six hundred twenty-five slope stability analyses were conducted by considering different geometries and soil properties. Based on the results of these analyses, a regression model was suggested to estimate safety factor of open excavations in similar stratigraphy which would be useful in feasibility studies and preliminary design of deep excavations. It was established that the clay layer cohesion was the most dominant contributor to safety factor.     

Adaptation to climate change in desertified lands of the marginal regions in Egypt through sustainable crop and livestock diversification systems

Environmental degradation resulting from current climate changes, including prolonged drought, land degradation, desertification, and loss of biodiversity, is presenting enormous challenges to achieve ...     

Prediction of the sawing quality of Marmarit stones using the capability of artificial neural network

The sawing rate is one of the most significant and effective parameters in extracting building stones via diamond wire sawing. This parameter designates the capability of diamond wire sawing for sawing different stones; in addition, the parameter gives rise to economical considerations for quarry designers. In this study, the existent relations between stone geotechnical parameters and the sawing rate of stones via diamond wire sawing were analyzed using regression and correlation coefficient as well as the collected data from Marmarit stone quarries. Moreover, we estimated the sawing rate of Marmarit using the dimensional stone rock mass rating (DSRMR); upon comparison of the data obtained from DSRMR our pre‐collected data on quarries, we did not gain satisfactory results from DSRMR, hence we used artificial neural network (ANN). The results showed that the percentage of Silica, the coefficient of water absorption, the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), and abrasive hardness are the proper parameters for creating the ANN. Discontinuities have the least effects possible on diamond wire sawing. Having given the training possibility of the ANN, and its ability to evaluate relations among input parameters, the ANN, which was being trained with Marmarit's traits, was an accurate network for estimating diamond wire sawing in Marmarit quarries, although it could not generalize this network for other stones such as Chini and Crystal. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence for Holocene environmental change from C/N ratios, and δ13C and δ15N values in Swan Lake sediments, western Sand Hills, Nebraska

Profiles of percent carbon and nitrogen, carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratios and stable carbon (¹³C), and nitrogen (¹⁵N) isotopic ratios in organic matter from an 11.6 m core were used to reconstruct environments of deposition in the Swan Lake basin during the past 5300 YBP. The upper 6.5 m consisted of gyttja containing variable amounts of reddish brown-colored fine organic matter and calcium carbonate. It was followed by a 0.5 m sandy silt, which was followed by a 3.6 m reduced layer characterized by large quantities of black organic plant remains, sapropel, and then by another sapropel layer consisting mainly of well-sorted sapropelic sand with relatively low organic matter content. The C- and N-contents in the organic matter in the sediment profile ranged from 0.5 to 23% and from 0.02 to 2%, respectively. Carbon content were positively correlated to both N and clay content while carbon content was negatively correlated to sand content. Two major environmental phases in Swan Lake were apparent from large differences in the C and N data of the sediment organic matter. These include the sapropel (marsh) stage that stretched from approximately 5330 to 3930 YBP, and the following gyttja (open water stage). During the sapropel marsh plants identified in a previous pollen study as cattails and sedges proliferated and produced copious amounts of well-preserved organic matter. C/N ratios, ¹³C values, and ¹⁵N values in the sapropel were significantly different from those that characterized organic matter in the gyttja. During the gyttja ¹³C values indicated that deep primary producers have dominated lake biomass. By utilizing bicarbonate as their C-source, the accumulating biomass became relatively enriched ¹³C values. The presence of high sediment CaCO₃ contents indicated more alkaline and deeper water conditions prevailed during the gyttja. Further refinement of the data suggested that each major phase initially contained an identifiable transition stage. During the sapropelic (initial marsh stage) which occurred before 5330 YBP, sand content gradually decreased as organic matter increased. As reflected by high C/N ratios and slightly enriched ¹³C values, these sands appear to have contained sufficient permeability to promote partial mineralization of accumulated organic-N containing compounds. A short initial gyttja transition period from about 3930–3830 YBP occurred in which the sediment silt content was anomalously high relative that measured in the surrounding layers. The silt content suggests that this turbid transition layer can not be completely explained by sediment mixing via bioturbation. The silts appeared to have been associated with the sharp climate change that resulted in higher water-table conditions during the gyttja stage.     

Structure sismique du socle paléozoı̈que du bassin des Doukkala,Môle côtier,Maroc occidental. Indication en faveur de l'existence d'une phase éo-varisqueSeismic structure of the Doukkala basin,Palaeozoic basement,western Morocco: a hint for an Eovariscan fold-and-thrust belt

Seismic profiles and well data from the Doukkala basin unravel the structure of the Palaeozoic basement and suggest that this coastal zone of western Morocco was affected by a compressive phase during the Frasnian. This resulted in the formation of upright, plurikilometric folds associated with reverse faults (North Doukkala), and of asymmetrical folds associated with mostly west verging ramps (South Doukkala). Folding involved all pre-Upper Frasnian formations and caused partial or total hiatus of Upper Frasnian–Strunian strata. This event can be correlated with the orogenic phase reported from more internal domains of the Morocco Hercynian belt, where it is referred to as the ‘Bretonne’ or ‘Eovariscan’ phase. To cite this article: H. Echarfaoui et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 13–20     

Hydrocarbon pollution of the Mediterranean coastline of Morocco

Organic geochemical study of hydrocarbon pollution of the Mediterranean coastline of Morocco (Tangier-Nador) was performed during March–April 2002. It corresponds to a preliminary work representing an initial assessment of oil contamination of Moroccan coast.Three coastal sites corresponding to Tangier, Tetouan and Nador, representing the main built-up area of this marine region, were selected for superficial sediments, water and organism sampling. Results showed high contamination levels in these three selected sites, known as the most exposed areas to urban and industrial discharges. The maximal contamination corresponding to the sum of non-aromatic (NAH) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) encountered in sediment samples was about 553 μg/g (dw). Nevertheless, even a small city agglomeration without any industrial activity showed high values reaching 370 μg/g (dw), which confirm the important hydrocarbons input coming from discharges of fishing ships and oil transporting tankers.The obtained results from this survey reflecting in part the important amounts drained via effluents toward the Moroccan Mediterranean coasts, presented to the concerned authorities drove to the realization of the project of treatment of the wastewater.They later expect to lower rates by 50%, which is still insufficient for a fragile ecosystem such as the Mediterranean and sensitive to anthropogenic effects.     

Magnitude of industrialization in Jordan

In spite of Jordan's insignificant natural resources and geopolitical problems, industrial development is being emphasized in Jordan since 1972. Industries are now the second largest sector of economy. Industries contributed 10% of the GDP in 1972, 19.5% in 1989 and 17.4% in 1993. This is remarkable as the national investment in industries is declining. The investments for industrial development was 30% of the total national investment in five year development plans (1976–1980), 23% in the next plan (1981–1985), and 13% in the following plan (1986–1990).The number of; industries has increased from 2500 in 1959 to 4684 in 1974, to 8533 in 1984, and 18600 in 1992. The employment or labor force also increased from 10,000 in 1959 to 70,000 in 1988, and to 110,000 in 1992. It represents about 16.4% of the total labor force in Jordan, the index number of industrial production also increased from (100) in 1979 which was the same base year, to (151) in 1983 to (205) in 1987 and to (215) in 1993. The study was based on three hypotheses: (i) the magnitude varies from one industry to another at the national (Jordan) and local (governorate levels), (ii) temporal change in the magnitude of industries has taken place during the period 1979–1992, (iii) the temporal change in the magnitude of industries was positive in some industries and negative in others.     

Distribution and Influence of Iron Phases the Physico—Chemical Properties of Phyllosilicates

Clay minerals from different Cretaceous stratigraphic successions of Egypt were investigated using XRD,DTA,dissolution analysis(DCB),IR,Moessbauer and X-ray Electron Spin Resonance(ESR) spectroscopes.The purity of the samples and the degree of their structural order were determined by XRD.The location of Fe in the octahedral sheet is characterized by absorption bands at-875cm^-1 assigned as Al-OH-Fe which persist after chemical dissolution of free iron.The Moessbauer spectra of these clays show two doublets with isomer shift and quadrupole splitting typical of octahedrally coordinated Fe^3 ,in addition to third doublet with hyperfine parameter typical of Fe^2 in the spectra of Abu-Had kaolinite (H) sample.Six-lines magnetic hyperfine components which are consistent with those of hematite are confirmed in the spectra of both Isel and Rish kaolinite samples.Goethite was confirmed by both IR and DTA.Multiple nature of ESR of these clays suggested structural Fe in distorted octahedral symmetry as well as non-structural Fe.Little dispersion and low swelling indices as well as incomplete activation of the investigated montmorillonite samplas by NaCO3 appear to be due to incomplete disaggregation of montmorillonite particles.This can be explained by the ability of Fe-gel to aggregate the montmorillonite into pseudo-particles and retard the rigid-gel structure.However,extraction of this ferric amorphous compound by dithonite treatment recovers the surface properties of the montmorillonite samples.On the other hand,the amount and site occupation of Fe associated with kaolinite samples show an inverse correlation with the parameters used to describe the degree of crystallinity perfection,color,brightness and vitrification range of these kaolinite samples.     

Environmental impact assessment on water quality deterioration caused by the decreased Ganges outflow and saline water intrusion in south-western Bangladesh

 This paper deals with an environmental impact assessment of low water flow in the river Ganges during a dry period at the Khulna and Mongla port areas in south-western Bangladesh. Large-scale surface water withdrawal in India after commissioning the Farakka Barrage causes a drastic fall in the Ganges low-flow condition within the Bangladesh territory during every dry period. The average lowest discharge in the Ganges is 552 m³/s, which is about 73% less than that in the pre-Farakka time. This has caused the deterioration of both surface and groundwater quality of the study area. Salinity is the principal cause of water quality degradation in the area. Present observation shows that the surface water of the area is sulphate-chloride dominated, which signifies high salinity whereas the groundwater is categorized as of medium to high salinity. To maintain the Rupsa River's maximum salinity below 1000 μS/cm the discharge in the Ganges should be ∼1500 m³/s, whereas that at Garai basin is ∼10 m³/s. If this present situation continues it will be a crippling blow to the environment of the area in the long term. An integrated multidisciplinary approach to hydrogeological research is urgently required to salvage the area from further deterioration. Received: 9 August 1999 · Accepted: 8 March 2000