NARX neural network approach for the monthly prediction of groundwater levels in Sylhet Sadar,Bangladesh

Groundwater is important for managing the water supply in agricultural countries like Bangladesh. Therefore, the ability to predict the changes of groundwater level is necessary for jointly planning the uses of groundwater resources. In this study, a new nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs(NARX) network has been applied to simulate monthly groundwater levels in a well of Sylhet Sadar at a local scale. The Levenberg-Marquardt(LM) and Bayesian Regularization(BR) algorithms were used to train the NARX network, and the results were compared to determine the best architecture for predicting monthly groundwater levels over time. The comparison between LM and BR showed that NARX-BR has advantages over predicting monthly levels based on the Mean Squared Error(MSE), coefficient of determination(R~2), and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency(NSE). The results show that BR is the most accurate method for predicting groundwater levels with an error of ± 0.35 m. This method is applied to the management of irrigation water source, which provides important information for the prediction of local groundwater fluctuation at local level during a short period.     

Sustainable development and management of an aquifer system in western Turkey

This study presents the establishment of sustainable development and management policies for the Küçük Menderes River Basin aquifer system in western Turkey. Geological, hydrogeological, and geophysical data are used conjunctively to define various hydrogeological units and their geometry. Distributions of hydraulic-parameter values and recharge are estimated by geostatistical methods and hydrologic simulations, respectively. A finite-difference groundwater flow model is used to represent the unconfined flow in the aquifer system. The model has been calibrated under steady state and transient conditions. The resulting model was used to test seven management scenarios for a planning period of 21 years to determine the so-called safe yield and sustainable yield of the aquifer system and to investigate the potential impacts of four planned surface water reservoirs on groundwater resources in the basin. The results demonstrate that the continuation of the present pumping rates exceeds both the safe yield and the sustainable yield of the aquifer system. Consequently, the growing need for irrigation water should be met by the construction of the planned surface water reservoirs and the implementation of efficient water management policies and plans.

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Resumen Este estudio presenta el establecimiento de políticas sustentables de desarrollo y gestión en el sistema acuífero de la cuenca del río Küçük Menderes, al Oeste de Turquía, para lo que se ha utilizado datos geológicos, hidrogeológicos y geofísicos de forma conjunta de cara a definir diversas unidades hidrogeológicas y su geometría. La distribución de los parámetros hidráulicos y de la recarga ha sido estimada mediante métodos geoestadísticos y simulaciones hidrológicas, respectivamente. Se ha empleado un modelo de las aguas subterráneas en diferencias finitas para representar el flujo no confinado en el sistema acuífero, el cual se ha calibrado bajo condiciones estacionarias y transitorias. El modelo resultante ha sido usado para contrastar siete escenarios de gestión durante un período de planificación de 21 años con el fin de determinar el punto de explotación segura y sustentable del sistema acuífero, así como para investigar los impactos potenciales sobre los recursos subterráneos de los cuatro embalses superficiales que se hallan en proyecto. Los resultados demuestran que el mantenimiento de las tasas actuales de extracción del acuífero supera tanto el régimen de bombeo seguro como el sustentable del sistema. Por consiguiente, se debería compensar la necesidad creciente de agua para riego con la construcción de los reservorios superficiales previstos y con la implementación de políticas y planes de gestión eficiente del agua.

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Résumé Cette étude présente la proposition dune politique de développement et de gestion durables du système aquifère du bassin du Petit Mendérès dans louest de la Turquie. Des données géologiques, hydrogéologiques et géophysiques ont été utilisées conjointement pour définir les différentes unités hydrogéologiques et leur géométrie. Les distributions des paramètres hydrauliques et de la recharge ont été estimées respectivement par des méthodes géostatistiques et des simulations hydrologiques. Un modèle découlement souterrain aux éléments finis a été utilisé pour représenter lécoulement non captif dans le système aquifère. Le modèle a été calibré dans des conditions de régimes permanent et transitoire. Le modèle résultant a servi à tester sept scénarios de gestion pour une période de programmation de 21 ans, afin de déterminer les débits de prélèvement sûr et durable dans le système aquifère et détudier les impacts potentiels de quatre réservoirs deau de surface en projet sur les eaux souterraines du bassin. Les résultats montrent que la poursuite des prélèvements au débit actuel excède aussi bien le débit dexploitation de sécurité que celui durable pour le système aquifère. Par conséquent, les besoins croissants deau pour lirrigation doivent être satisfaits par la construction des réservoirs projetés et par la mise en place de politiques et de plans de gestion de leau efficace.

     

The lamprophyres of Afyon stratovolcano,western Anatolia,Turkey: description and genesis

The Afyon stratovolcano exhibits lamprophyric rocks, emplaced as hydrovolcanic products, aphanitic lava flows and dyke intrusions, during the final stages of volcanic activity. Most of the Afyon volcanics belong to the silica-saturated alkaline suite, as potassic trachyandesites and trachytes, while the products of the latest activity are lamproitic lamprophyres (jumillite, orendite, verite, fitztroyite) and alkaline lamprophyres (campto-sannaite, sannaite, hyalo-monchiquite, analcime–monchiquite). Afyon lamprophyres exhibit LILE and Zr enrichments, related to mantle metasomatism.     

Entropy,consistency in rainfall distribution and potential water resource availability in Australia

Understanding the variability in monthly rainfall amounts is important for the management of water resources. We use entropy, a measure of variability, to quantify the rainfall variability in Australia. We define the entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) to measure the long‐term average rainfall variability across the months of the year. The stations in northern Australia observe substantially more variability in rainfall distributions and stations in southern Australia observe less variability in rainfall distribution across the months of the year. We also define the consistency index (CI) to compare the distribution of the monthly rainfall for a given year with the long‐term average monthly rainfall distribution. Higher value of the CI indicates the rainfall in the year is consistent with the overall long‐term average rainfall distribution. Areas close to the coastline in northern, southern and eastern Australia observe more consistent rainfall distribution in individual years with the long‐term average rainfall distribution. For the studied stations, we categorize the years into different potential water resource availability on the basis of annual rainfall amount and CI. For almost all Australian rainfall stations, El Niño years have a greater risk of having below median and relatively inconsistent rainfall distribution than La Niña years. The results may be helpful for developing area‐specific water usage strategies. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional gravimetric quasi-geoid model and transformation surface to national height system for Turkey (THG-09)

Turkish regional geoid models have been developed by employing a reference earth gravitational model, surface gravity observations and digital terrain models. The gravimetric geoid models provide a ready transformation from ellipsoidal heights to the orthometric heights through the use of GPS/leveling geoid heights determined through the national geodetic networks. The recent gravimetric models for Turkish territory were computed depending on OSU91 (TG-91) and EGM96 (TG-03) earth gravitational models. The release of the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM08), the collection of new surface gravity observations, the advanced satellite altimetry-derived gravity over the sea, and the availability of the high resolution digital terrain model have encouraged us to compute a new geoid model for Turkey. We used the Remove-Restore procedure based on EGM08 and applied Residual Terrain Model (RTM) reduction of the surface gravity data. Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) was then used to obtain the residual quasigeoid from the reduced gravity. We restored the individual contributions of EGM08 and RTM to the whole quasi-geoid height (TQG-09). Since the Helmert orthometric height system is adopted in Turkey, the quasi-geoid model (TQG-09) was then converted to the geoid model (TG-09) by making use of Bouguer gravity anomalies and digital terrain model. After all we combined a gravimetric geoid model with GPS/leveling geoid heights in order to obtain a hybrid geoid model (THG-09) (or a transformation surface) to be used in GPS applications. The RMS of the post-fit residuals after the combination was found to be ± 0.95 cm, which represents the internal precision of the final combination. And finally, we tested the hybrid geoid model with GPS/leveling data, which were not used in the combination, to assess the external accuracy. Results show that the external accuracy of the THG-09 model is ± 8.4 cm, a precision previously not achieved in Turkey until this study.     

A GIS model for preliminary hazard assessment of swelling clays,a case study in Harran plain (SE Turkey)

Swelling behavior of clayey soils regarded as a hidden disaster, causes a great deal of damage in light hydraulic structures such as drinking water network, irrigation pipes or open canal linings through which water can easily leak and penetrate into soil during loading and unloading stages. Early identification during site investigation and laboratory testing is extremely important to ensure that the appropriate design strategy is adopted. The clay soils having swelling potential are generally found in arid and semi-arid regions, such as in the Şanlıurfa-Harran plain located in the southeast of Turkey. The problems associated with swelling clays occurred for the lightweight hydraulic structures constructed in Turkey have been met during the construction of irrigation structures in the scope of Southeast Anatolian Project as the Turkey’s greatest water resources project. Therefore, the identification of such soils and the assessment of their swelling potential parameters are necessary for hazard mitigation planning and land-use management. In this scope, extensive geotechnical study is executed for an investigation area. The samples were obtained from the Harran plain where many irrigation canal structures are constructed, and geotechnical study was performed on these samples. Atterberg limit tests often provide the basic field information to substantiate the soil’s swelling nature. The plasticity index (PI) and liquid limit (LL) values are also used extensively for classifying swelling soil and should always be determined during preliminary investigations. Because of this, LL and PI are assessed by using geographical information system (GIS)-based computer software, and LL and PI contour maps are created. Swelling percentages of the soil samples were carried out on both undisturbed and compacted soil samples by using direct methods. As a result of this extensive study, the values of swelling percentages determined for each location are used to obtain the swelling potential hazard map of the area by means of a GIS program. The results of GIS analyses for this area indicate that the analyses based on a lot of data introduce meaningful results for this study. It is expected that these maps will be a useful tool for planners and engineers in their efforts to achieve better land-use planning and to decide necessary remedial measures.     

Relationship between soil erosion, slope, parent material, and distance to road (Case study: Latian Watershed, Iran)

Soil erosion is the dominating factor of damaging roads in Iran. Roads are a critical component of civilization. Developing and maintaining the economic activity that is vital for the quality of modern life would be difficult without roads. Accelerated erosion and increased sediment yields resulting from changes in land use are critical environmental problems, and one of the important changes is road construction. Construction and condition of roadways are associated with direct and indirect impacts on soil erosion. This paper presents the relationship between soil erosion and some characteristics such as distance to roadway, slope, and parent material in Latian Watershed, Tehran Province, Iran. Soil erosion map was interpreted using aerial photos and GIS technology. Buffer zones, subdivided into 12 strips, each 0.2 km wide, which were located alongside roadway. The distribution patterns of various types of erosion were also identified by GIS by overlaying road buffer strips and soil erosion map. The results show that soil erosion landform such as land slide, badland, bank erosion, channel erosion, etc. found in buffer zones along both sides of roads.