Saturation states of carbonate minerals in a freshwater-seawater mixing zone of small tropical island’s aquifer

Groundwater is a crucial resource on the Manukan Island as it is the only source of freshwater available on the island. The aquifer has deteriorated to a high degree, during the last decade. Nine domestic wells were sam-pled from March 2006 to January 2007 to probe the hydrochemical components that influence the water quality. Geochemical data on dissolved major constituents in groundwater samples from the Manukan Island revealed the main processes responsible for their geochemical evolution. The results using statistical analyses, graphical method and numerical model output (PHREEQC) showed that the groundwater was chemically highly enriched in Na and Cl, indicative of seawater intrusion into the aquifer as also supported from the Na-Cl signature on the Piper diagram. From the PHREEQC simulation model, calcite, dolomite and aragonite solubility showed positive values of the saturation indices (SI), indicating supersaturation which led to mineral precipitation condition of water by these min-erals.     

Climate Change and Pastoral Economy in Kenya:A Blinking Future

Abstract: The present paper examines the changing climatic scenarios and associated effects on livestock farming (pastoralism) in the arid and semi arid lands (ASAL) of Kenya, which cover over 80% of the country. The study was carried out in the semi arid Mukogodo Division of Laikipia District in Kenya. This division received a mean annual rainfall of approximately 507.8?mm and the main source of livelihood was pastoralism. Questionnaire, structured interview, observation and literature review were the main methods of data collection. Rainfall was used in delineating changes in climate. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Markov process were used in analyzing drought severity and persistence, respectively. Approximately 38% of all droughts between 1975 and 2005 were prolonged and extremely severe, with cumulative severity indices ranging between ?2.54 and ?6.49. The probability that normal climatic conditions persisted for two or more consecutive years in Mukogodo Division remained constant at approximately 52%. However, the probability of wet years persisting for two or more years showed a declining trend, while persistence of dry years increased with duration. A drying climatic trend was established. This drying trend in the area led to increased land degradation and encroachment of invasive nonpalatable bushes. The net effect on pastoralism was large-scale livestock loss through starvation, disease and cattle rustling. Proper drought monitoring and accurate forecasts, community participation in all government interventions, infrastructural development in the ASAL and allocation of adequate resources for livestock development are some of the measures necessary for mitigating the dwindling pastoral economy in Kenya and other parts of the world.     

Medium-scale hazard mapping for shallow landslide initiation: the Buyukkoy catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey)

The main purpose of this study is to develop a new hazard evaluation technique considering the current limitations, particularly for shallow landslides. For this purpose, the Buyukkoy catchment area, located in the East Black Sea Region in the east of Rize province and the south of Cayeli district, was selected as the study area. The investigations were executed in four different stages. These were (1) preparation of a temporal shallow landslide inventory of the study area, (2) assessment of conditioning factors in the catchment, (3) susceptibility analyses and (4) hazard evaluations and mapping. A total of 251 shallow landslides in the period of 1955–2007 were recognised using different data sources. A ‘Sampling Circle’ approach was proposed to define shallow landslide initiation in the mapping units in susceptibility evaluations. To accomplish the susceptibility analyses, the method of artificial neural networks was implemented. According to the performance analyses conducted using the training and testing datasets, the prediction and generalisation capacities of the models were found to be very high. To transform the susceptibility values into hazard rates, a new approach with a new equation was developed, taking into account the behaviour of the responsible triggering factor over time in the study area. In the proposed equation, the threshold value of the triggering factor and the recurrence interval are the independent variables. This unique property of the suggested equation allows the execution of more flexible and more dynamic hazard assessments. Finally, using the proposed technique, shallow landslide initiation hazard maps of the Buyukkoy catchment area for the return periods of 1, 2, 5, 10, 50 and 100 years were produced.     

Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific

Precipitation changes over the Indo-Pacific during El Niño events are studied using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Linear increases in the amplitude of the El Niño SST anomaly pattern trigger nonlinear changes in precipitation amounts, resulting in shifts in the location and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). In particular, the maximum precipitation anomaly along the ITCZ and SPCZ shifts eastwards, the ITCZ shifts south towards the equator, and the SPCZ becomes more zonal. Precipitation in the equatorial Pacific also increases nonlinearly. The effect of increasing CO₂ levels and warming SSTs is also investigated. Global warming generally enhances the tropical Pacific precipitation response to El Niño. The precipitation response to El Niño is found to be dominated by changes in the atmospheric mean circulation dynamics, whereas the response to global warming is a balance between dynamic and thermodynamic changes. While the dependence of projected climate change impacts on seasonal variability is well-established, this study reveals that the impact of global warming on Pacific precipitation also depends strongly on the magnitude of the El Niño event. The magnitude and structure of the precipitation changes are also sensitive to the spatial structure of the global warming SST pattern.     

Preventing flooding or regulating flood levels?: Case studies on perception of flood alleviation in Bangladesh

Based on a systematic sample survey among the residents of two contrasting floodplain environments - the Tista floodplain (a shallow flood area) and the Ganges-Brahmaputra floodplain (a deep flood area) - this study tests a central hypothesis that the floodplain residents of Bangladesh preferred regulation of flood levels as the main flood alleviation measure. The study found that, despite significant differences in property setting, flood hazard experience and the nature of indigenous adjustments to floods between the two sample areas, an overwhelming 95% of the respondents from each area preferred regulation of flood levels within a range of 0.3 to 2.0 m. The study attempts to provide an explanation for the popularity of regulated flood levels in the context of indigenous adjustments of floodplain crops and infrastructures tonormal flood levels in Bangladesh, which coincided with the respondents' preferred range of flood levels. The study points out that the objective of the UNDP/World Bank-sponsored embankment compartmentalization projects also coincides with this goal of regulating flood levels. However, to test the physical limitations of regulating water levels between neighbouring compartments and to assess the environmental impacts of the proposed projects, the study stresses the need for initiating environmental baseline surveys on the pilot compartmentalization project, which is located on the left bank of the Brahmaputra.     

Mass mortality of the fan mussel,Pinna nobilis in Turkey (eastern Mediterranean)

This study reported the mass mortality events (MMEs) of Pinna nobilis based on diving surveys in Turkey. Data were collected across 12 sites in the Aegean Sea, and one site in the Sea of Marmara, within the period of June-September 2019. The results showed that a low mortality rate of 10% was found in the Sea of Marmara, and a MME was not detected for this area. In contrast, 97% mortality was recorded for the P. nobilis population distributed in the Turkish Aegean Sea. This discrepancy might be related to the seawater temperature and salinity values of these two seas. The waters of the Sea of Marmara were colder and less salty than the Aegean Sea. The findings highlighted the importance of protecting the healthy population of critically endangered fan mussels in the Sea of Marmara. It was recommended that sound management plans comprising of monitoring, enforcement and public awareness activities could be implemented in order to achieve this.     

Particle swarm optimization feedforward neural network for modeling runoff

The rainfall-runoff relationship is one of the most complex hydrological phenomena. In recent years, hydrologists have successfully applied backpropagation neural network as a tool to model various nonlinear hydrological processes because of its ability to generalize patterns in imprecise or noisy and ambiguous input and output data sets. However, the backpropagation neural network convergence rate is relatively slow and solutions can be trapped at local minima. Hence, in this study, a new evolutionary algorithm, namely, particle swarm optimization is proposed to train the feedforward neural network. This particle swarm optimization feedforward neural network is applied to model the daily rainfall-runoff relationship in Sungai Bedup Basin, Sarawak, Malaysia. The model performance is measured using the coefficient of correlation and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. The input data to the model are current rainfall, antecedent rainfall and antecedent runoff, while the output is current runoff. Particle swarm optimization feedforward neural network simulated the current runoff accurately with R = 0.872 and E² = 0.775 for the training data set and R = 0.900 and E²= 0.807 for testing data set. Thus, it can be concluded that the particle swarm optimization feedforward neural network method can be successfully used to model the rainfall-runoff relationship in Bedup Basin and it could be to be applied to other basins.     

Recent uplift and hydrothermal activity at Tangkuban Parahu volcano,west Java,Indonesia

Tangkuban Parahu is an active stratovolcano located 17 km north of the city of Bandung in the province west Java, Indonesia. All historical eruptive activity at this volcano has been confined to a complex of explosive summit craters. About a dozen eruptions-mostly phreatic events- and 15 other periods of unrest, indicated by earthquakes or increased thermal activity, have been noted since 1829. The last magmatic eruption occurred in 1910. In late 1983, several small phreatic explosions originated from one of the summit craters. More recently, increased hydrothermal and earthquake activity occurred from late 1985 through 1986. Tilt measurements, using a spirit-level technique, have been made every few months since February 1981 in the summit region and along the south and east flanks of the volcano. Measurements made in the summit region indicated uplift since the start of these measurements through at least 1986. From 1981 to 1983, the average tilt rate at the edges of the summit craters was 40–50 microradians per year. After the 1983 phreatic activity, the tilt rate decreased by about a factor of five. Trilateration surveys across the summit craters and on the east flank of the volcano were conducted in 1983 and 1986. Most line length changes measured during this three-year period did not exceed the expected uncertainty of the technique (4 ppm). The lack of measurable horizontal strain across the summit craters seems to contradict the several years of tilt measurements. Using a point source of dilation in an elastic half-space to model tilt measurements, the pressure center at Tangkuban Parahu is located about 1.5 km beneath the southern part of the summit craters. This is beneath the epicentral area of an earthquake swarm that occurred in late 1983. The average rate in the volume of uplift from 1981 to 1983 was 3 million m³ per year; from 1983 to 1986 it averaged about 0.4 million m³ per year. Possible causes for this uplift are increased pressure within a very shallow magma body or heating and expansion of a confined aquifier.     

Recent uplift and hydrothermal activity at Tangkuban Parahu volcano, west Java, Indonesia

Tangkuban Parahu is an active stratovolcano located 17 km north of the city of Bandung in the province west Java, Indonesia. All historical eruptive activity at this volcano has been confined to a complex of explosive summit craters. About a dozen eruptions-mostly phreatic events- and 15 other periods of unrest, indicated by earthquakes or increased thermal activity, have been noted since 1829. The last magmatic eruption occurred in 1910. In late 1983, several small phreatic explosions originated from one of the summit craters. More recently, increased hydrothermal and earthquake activity occurred from late 1985 through 1986. Tilt measurements, using a spirit-level technique, have been made every few months since February 1981 in the summit region and along the south and east flanks of the volcano. Measurements made in the summit region indicated uplift since the start of these measurements through at least 1986. From 1981 to 1983, the average tilt rate at the edges of the summit craters was 40–50 microradians per year. After the 1983 phreatic activity, the tilt rate decreased by about a factor of five. Trilateration surveys across the summit craters and on the east flank of the volcano were conducted in 1983 and 1986. Most line length changes measured during this three-year period did not exceed the expected uncertainty of the technique (4 ppm). The lack of measurable horizontal strain across the summit craters seems to contradict the several years of tilt measurements. Using a point source of dilation in an elastic half-space to model tilt measurements, the pressure center at Tangkuban Parahu is located about 1.5 km beneath the southern part of the summit craters. This is beneath the epicentral area of an earthquake swarm that occurred in late 1983. The average rate in the volume of uplift from 1981 to 1983 was 3 million m³ per year; from 1983 to 1986 it averaged about 0.4 million m³ per year. Possible causes for this uplift are increased pressure within a very shallow magma body or heating and expansion of a confined aquifier.     

Separation and Preconcentration of Cobalt Using a New Schiff Base Derivative on Amberlite XAD‐7

In this study, a new solid‐phase extraction procedure has been developed for preconcentration and determination of Co ions in different water samples by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (FAAS). Cobalt was preconcentrated as N,N′‐bis(pyridine‐2‐yl‐methyl)benzene‐1,4‐diamine (Co‐BPMBDA) from sample solutions using a column containing Amberlite XAD‐7 and was determined. In order to achieve the best performance for the method, effects of several parameters such as pH, concentrations of ligand, sample flow rate, eluent, and matrix ions on the method efficiency were investigated. Under optimum conditions, the preconcentration factor was found to be 200 for 1000 mL waters samples. Detection limit based on the 3S_b criterion was calculated as 0.24 µg/L for 100 mL of sample solution and relative standard deviation was found to be 1.8%. The method was applied to determine the trace amounts of cobalt in water samples.