New 1982 — 1990 photometry of λ Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0^m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season, we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0^m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0^m.09 down almost to 0^m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55^d.9 ± 0^d.6 and 520^d.8 ± 1^d.0, respectively.     

What we have learned about Mars from SNC meteorites

Abstract— The SNC meteorites are thought to be igneous martian rocks, based on their young crystallization ages and a close match between the composition of gases implanted in them during shock and the atmosphere of Mars. A related meteorite, ALH84001, may be older and thus may represent ancient martian crust. These petrologically diverse basalts and ultramafic rocks are mostly cumulates, but their parent magmas share geochemical and radiogenic isotopic characteristics that suggest they may have formed by remelting the same mantle source region at different times. Information and inferences about martian geology drawn from these samples include the following: Planetary differentiation occurred early at ～4.5 Ga, probably concurrently with accretion. The martian mantle contains different abundances of moderately volatile and siderophile elements and is more Fe-rich than that of the Earth, which has implications for its mineralogy, density, and origin. The estimated core composition has a S abundance near the threshold value for inner core solidification. The former presence of a core dynamo may be suggested by remanent magnetization in SNC meteorites, although these rocks may have been magnetized during shock. The mineralogy of martian surface units, inferred from reflectance spectra, matches that of basaltic shergottites, but SNC lithologies thought to have crystallized in the subsurface are not presently recognized. The rheological properties of martian magmas are more accurately derived from these meteorites than from observations of martian flow morphology, although the sampled range of magma compositions is limited. Estimates of planetary water abundance and the amount of outgassed water based on these meteorites are contradictory but overlap estimates based on geological observations and atmospheric measurements. Stable isotope measurements indicate that the martian hydrosphere experienced only limited exchange with the lithosphere, but it is in isotopic equilibrium with the atmosphere and has been since 1.3 Ga. The isotopically heavy atmosphere/hydrosphere composition deduced from these rocks reflects a loss process more severe than current atmospheric evolution models, and the occurrence of carbonates in SNC meteorites suggests that they, rather than scapolite or hydrous carbonates, are the major crustal sink for CO₂. Weathering products in SNC meteorites support the idea of limited alteration of the lithosphere by small volumes of saline, CO₂-bearing water. Atmospheric composition and evolution are further constrained by noble gases in these meteorites, although Xe and Kr isotopes suggest different origins for the atmosphere. Planetary ejection of these rocks has promoted an advance in the understanding of impact physics, which has been accomplished by a model involving spallation during large cratering events. Ejection of all the SNC meteorites (except ALH84001) in one or two events may provide a plausible solution to most constraints imposed by chronology, geochemistry, and cosmic ray exposure, although problems remain with this scenario; ALH84001 may represent older martian crust sampled during a separate impact.     

Mass Fractions of S,Cu, Se,Mo, Ag,Cd, In,Te, Ba,Sm, W,Tl and Bi in Geological Reference Materials and Selected Carbonaceous Chondrites Determined by Isotope Dilution ICP‐MS

Mass fractions of S, Cu, Se, Mo, Ag, Cd, In, Te, Ba, Sm, W and Tl were determined by isotope dilution sector field ICP‐MS in the same sample aliquot of reference materials using HF‐HNO₃ digestion in PFA beakers in pressure bombs and glassy carbon vessels in a high‐pressure asher (HPA‐S) for comparison. Additionally, Bi was determined by internal standardisation relative to Tl. Because isobaric and oxide interferences pose problems for many of these elements, efficient chromatographic separation methods in combination with an Aridus desolvator were employed to minimise interference effects. Repeated digestion and measurement of geological reference materials (BHVO‐1, BHVO‐2, SCo‐1, MAG‐1, MRG‐1 and UB‐N) gave results with < 5% relative intermediate precision (1s) for most elements, except Bi. Replicates of NIST SRM 612 glass digested on a hot plate were analysed by the same methods, and the results agree with reference values mostly within 2% relative deviation. Data for the carbonaceous chondrites Allende, Murchison, Orgueil and Ivuna are also reported. Digestion in a HPA‐S was as efficient as in pressure bombs, but some elements displayed higher blank levels following HPA‐S treatment. Pressure bomb digestion yielded precise data for volatile S, Se and Te, but may result in high blanks for W.     

Petrology and trace element geochemistry of Tissint,the newest shergottite fall

The fall and recovery of the Tissint meteorite in 2011 created a rare opportunity to examine a Martian sample with a known, short residence time on Earth. Tissint is an olivine‐phyric shergottite that accumulated olivine antecrysts within a single magmatic system. Coarse olivine grains with nearly homogeneous cores of Mg# >80 suggest slow re‐equilibration. Many macroscopic features of this sample resemble those of LAR 06319, including the olivine crystal size distribution and the presence of evolved oxide and olivine compositions. Unlike LAR 06319, however, no magmatic hydrous phases were found in the analyzed samples of Tissint. Minor and trace element compositions indicate that the meteorite is the product of closed‐system crystallization from a parent melt derived from a depleted source, with no obvious addition of a LREE‐rich (crustal?) component prior to or during crystallization. The whole‐rock REE pattern is similar to that of intermediate olivine‐phyric shergottite EETA 79001 lithology A, and could also be approximated by a more olivine‐rich version of depleted basaltic shergottite QUE 94201. Magmatic oxygen fugacities are at the low end of the shergottite range, with log fO₂ of QFM‐3.5 to ‐4.0 estimated based on early‐crystallized minerals and QFM‐2.4 estimated based on the Eu in pyroxene oxybarometer. These values are similarly comparable to other depleted shergottites, including SaU 005 and QUE 94201. Tissint occupies a previously unsampled niche in shergottite chemistry: containing olivines with Mg# >80, resembling the enriched olivine‐phyric shergottite LAR 06319 in its crystallization path, and comparable to intermediate olivine‐phyric shergottite EETA 79001A, depleted olivine‐phyric shergottite DaG 476, and depleted basaltic shergottite QUE 94201 in its trace element abundances and oxygen fugacity. The apparent absence of evidence for terrestrial alteration in Tissint (particularly in trace element abundances in the whole‐rock and individual minerals) confirms that exposure to the arid desert environment results in only minimal weathering of samples, provided the exposure times are brief.     

A search for evidence of critical internal wave reflection on the continental rise and slope off Nova Scotia

Abstract

According to linear inviscid theory, the reflection of internal waves off a uniformly sloping bottom should lead to greatly enhanced energy density, and a cross‐isobath alignment of motions, near the critical frequency ω_c for which the wave ray slope equals the bottom slope. Current‐meter data from the continental rise and slope off Nova Scotia are used to test this hypothesis. Near‐bottom energy enhancement at ω_c was found to be significant at the 95% level for 8 out of 30 tests performed, whereas cross‐isobath alignment of motions near ω_c was significant at the 95% level for 10 out of 15 tests performed. Some aspects of the observations that appear to be consistent with non‐linear reflection theory are briefly discussed.     

Acidification of Lower St. Lawrence Estuary Bottom Waters

Accumulation of metabolic CO₂ can acidify marine waters above and beyond the ongoing acidification of the ocean by anthropogenic CO₂. The impact of respiration on carbonate chemistry and pH is most acute in hypoxic and anoxic basins, where metabolic CO₂ accumulates to high concentrations. The bottom waters of the Lower St. Lawrence Estuary (LSLE), where persistently severe hypoxia has developed over the last 80 years, is one such case. We have reconstructed the evolution of pH in the bottom waters from historical and recent data, and from first principles relating the stoichiometry of CO₂ produced to oxygen consumed during microbial degradation of organic matter. Based on the value of the atmospheric partial pressure of CO₂ that best reproduces the preformed dissolved inorganic carbon concentration in the bottom waters, we estimate the average ventilation age of the bottom waters to be 16?±?3 years. The pH of the bottom waters has decreased by 0.2 to 0.3 over the last 75 years, which is four to six times greater than can be attributed to the uptake of anthropogenic CO₂. The pH decrease is accompanied by a decline in the saturation state with respect to both calcite and aragonite. As of 2007, bottom waters in the LSLE are slightly supersaturated with respect to calcite (Ω_c?≈?1.06?±?0.04) but are strongly undersaturated with respect to aragonite (Ω_a?≈?0.67?±?0.03).

     

Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models

Abstract

Two dynamical models are used to perform a series of seasonal predictions. One model, referred to as GCM2, was designed as a general circulation model for climate studies, while the second one, SEF, was designed for numerical weather prediction. The seasonal predictions cover the 26‐year period 1969–1994. For each of the four seasons, ensembles of six forecasts are produced with each model, the six runs starting from initial conditions six hours apart. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for the month prior to the start of the forecast is persisted through the three‐month prediction period, and added to a monthly‐varying climatological SST field.

The ensemble‐mean predictions for each of the models are verified independently, and the two ensembles are blended together in two different ways: as a simple average of the two models, denoted GCMSEF, and with weights statistically determined to minimize the mean‐square error (the Best Linear Unbiased Estimate (BLUE) method).

The GCMSEF winter and spring predictions show a Pacific/North American (PNA) response to a warm tropical SST anomaly. The temporal anomaly correlation between the zero‐lead GCMSEF mean‐seasonal predictions and observations of the 500‐hPa height field (Z₅₀₀) shows statistically significant forecast skill over parts of the PNA area for all seasons, but there is a notable seasonal variability in the distribution of the skill. The GCMSEF predictions are more skilful than those of either model in winter, and about as skilful as the better of the two models in the other seasons.

The zero‐lead surface air temperature GCMSEF forecasts over Canada are found to be skilful (a) over the west coast in all seasons except fall, (b) over most of Canada in summer, and (c) over Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec in the fall. In winter the skill of the BLUE forecasts is substantially better than that of the GCMSEF predictions, while for the other seasons the difference in skill is not statistically significant.

When the Z₅₀₀ forecasts are averaged over months two and three of the seasons (one‐month lead predictions), they show skill in winter over the north‐eastern Pacific, western Canada and eastern North America, a skill that comes from those years with strong SST anomalies of the El Niño/La Niña type. For the other seasons, predictions averaged over months two and three show little skill in Z₅₀₀ in the mid‐latitudes. In the tropics, predictive skill is found in Z₅₀₀ in all seasons when a strong SST anomaly of the El Niño/La Niña type is observed. In the absence of SST anomalies of this type, tropical forecast skill is still found over much of the tropics in months two and three of the northern hemisphere spring and summer, but not in winter and fall.     

A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history

The fall of the Ming dynasty in the first half of the 17th century and the Taiping Rebellion from 1851–1864 were two of the most chaotic periods in Chinese history, and each was accompanied by large-scale population collapses. The ‘Kang-Qian Golden Age’ (also known as ‘High Qing’), during which population size expanded rapidly, falls in between the two. Scholars remain divided in their opinions concerning the above alternation of population growth and decline as to whether variations in population size or climate change should be identified as the root cause. In either case, the synergistic impact of population growth and climate change upon population growth dynamics is overlooked. In the present study, we utilized high-resolution empirical data, qualitative survey, statistical comparison and time-series analysis to investigate how the two factors worked synergistically to drive population cycles in 1600–1899. To facilitate our research, we posited a set of simplified pathways for population growth in historical agrarian China. Our results confirm that the interrelation between population growth, climate change and population crises in recent Chinese history basically followed our posited pathways. The recurrences of population crises were largely determined by the combination of population growth and climate change. Our results challenge classic Malthusian/post-Malthusian interpretations and historians’ views of historical Chinese population cycles.     

Extent of chondrule melting: Evaluation of experimental textures,nominal grain size,and convolution index

Abstract— Dynamic crystallization experiments on the ordinary chondrite Queen Alexandra Range (QUE) 97008 document textural features that occur in partially melted chondrules with changes in the degree of partial melting and cooling rate. We carried out a matrix of experiments, at peak temperatures of 1250, 1350, 1370, and 1450 °C, and cooling rates of 1000, 100, and 10 °C/h, and quenched. All experimentally produced textures closely resemble textures of porphyritic chondrules. Because peak temperatures were well below the liquidi for typical chondrule compositions, the textural similarities support an incomplete melting origin for most porphyritic chondrules. Our experiments can be used to determine the extent of melting of natural chondrules by comparing textural relationships among the experimental results with those of natural chondrules. We used our experiments along with X‐ray computerized tomography scans of a Semarkona chondrule to evaluate two other methods that have been used previously to quantify the degree of melting: nominal grain size and convolution index. Proper applications of these methods can result in valid assessments of a chondrule's degree of melting, but only if accompanied by careful interpretation, as chondrule textures are controlled by more than just the extent of melting. Such measurements of single aspects of chondrule textures might be coupled with qualitative analysis of other textural aspects to accurately determine degree of melting.