Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.     

Strontium and its isotopic composition in interstitial waters of marine carbonate sediments

The concentrations and isotopic compositions of strontium in interstitial waters from several DSDP sites, where sediments consist chiefly of carbonate oozes and chalks, are used as indicators of carbonate diagenesis by reference to a recently-produced curve showing detailed variations in the⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of seawater with time. Carbonate sediments of the Walvis Ridge show increases in interstitial Sr²⁺ concentrations in the upper carbonate-ooze sections with the highest concentrations near the ooze-chalk boundary where maximum rates of carbonate recrystallization occur. Below this, in situ production of Sr²⁺ diminishes and there is a diffusive flux of Sr to an underlying sink, presumably volcanogenic sediments or basalts, leading to Sr isotopic disequilibrium between carbonates and interstitial waters. In some other sites, however, there is no apparent Sr sink at depth and isotopic equilibrium is retained. Overall, diffusive smoothing of profiles exerts an important control on the⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, although lower ratios than contemporaneous seawater values in the carbonate oozes often correlate with zones of Mg²⁺ loss and reflect a combination of a flux of Sr²⁺ from the zone of maximum recrystallization rates together with a contribution from the in situ alteration of volcanic matter.     

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.     

Melt inclusions in augite of the Nakhla martian meteorite: Evidence for basaltic parental melt

Abstract— Nakhla contains crystallized melt inclusions that were trapped in augite and olivine when these phases originally formed on Mars. Our study involved rehomogenization (slow‐heating and fast‐heating) experiments on multiphase melt inclusions in Nakhla augite. We studied melt inclusions trapped in augite because this phase re‐equilibrated with the external melt to a lesser extent than olivine and results could be directly compared with previous Nakhla melt inclusion studies. Following heating and homogenization of encapsulated melt inclusions, single mineral grains were mounted and polished to expose inclusions. Major element chemistry was determined by electron microprobe. The most primitive melt inclusion analyzed in Nakhla NA03 is basaltic and closely matches previously reported nakhlite parent melt compositions. MELTS equilibrium and fractional crystallization models calculated for NA03 and previous Nakhla parent melt estimates at QFM and QFM‐1 produced phase assemblages and compositions that can be compared to Nakhla. Of these models, equilibrium crystallization of NA03 at QFM‐1 produced the best match to mineral phases and compositions in Nakhla. In all models, olivine and augite co‐crystallize, consistent with the hypothesis that olivine is not xenocrystic but has undergone subsolidus re‐equilibration. In addition, measured melt inclusion compositions plot along the MELTS‐calculated liquid line of descent and may represent pockets of melt trapped at various stages during crystallization. We attempt to resolve discrepancies between previous estimates of the Nakhla parental melt composition and to reinterpret the results of a previous study of rehomogenized melt inclusions in Nakhla. Melt inclusions demonstrate that Nakhla is an igneous rock whose parent melt composition and crystallization history reflect planetary igneous processes.     

Joint investigations of the Middle Pliocene climate I: PRISM paleoenvironmental reconstructions

The Pliocene epoch represents an important transition from a climate regime with high-frequency, low-amplitude oscillations when the Northern Hemisphere lacked substantial ice sheets, to the typical high-frequency, high-amplitude Middle to Late Pleistocene regime characterized by glacial—interglacial cycles that involve waxing and waning of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Analysis of middle Pliocene (3 Ma) marine and terrestrial records throughout the Northern Hemisphere forms the basis of an integrated synoptic Pliocene paleoclimate reconstruction of the last significantly warmer than present interval in Earth history. This reconstruction, developed primarily from paleontological data, includes middle Pliocene sea level, vegetation, land—ice distribution, sea—ice distribution, and sea-surface temperature (SST), all of which contribute to our conceptual understanding of this climate system. These data indicate middle Pliocene sea level was at least 25 m higher than present, presumably due in large part to a reduction in the size of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea surface temperatures were essentially equivalent to modern temperatures in tropical regions but were significantly warmer at higher latitudes. Due to increased heat flux to high latitudes, both the Arctic and Antarctic appear to have been seasonally ice free during the middle Pliocene with greatly reduced sea ice extent relative to today during winter. Vegetation changes, while more complex, are generally consistent with marine SST changes and show increased warmth and moisture at higher latitudes during the middle Pliocene.     

Revised model calculations for the thermal histories of ordinary chondrite parent bodies

Abstract— Recent measurements of ordinary chondrite physical and thermal properties along with new geothermometry studies have provided the necessary parameters for updating a previously proposed model (Miyamoto et al., 1981) for the thermal evolution and internal structure of ordinary chondrite parent bodies. Model calculations assumed a heat source term derived from the decay of ²⁶Al (justification is provided). Differences from the previous model include: varying the thermal diffusivity parameter with increasing temperature (and decreasing porosity), using variable physical and thermal parameters to provide end member models, and incorporating a shortened thermal history of 60 Ma (obtained from new Pb-Pb chronology of phosphates) rather than 100 Ma. Times of isotopic closure in chondrite phosphates overlap the thermal model estimates, and postmetamorphic cooling rates from the model approximately coincide, in both trend and magnitude, with metallographic and fission track cooling rate data. Model calculations attempt to match peak metamorphic conditions in the central portions of these bodies and yield accretion ages between 1.4 to 3.1 Ma after calcium-aluminum inclusion (CAI) formation. Model calculations also predict that both the H and the L chondrite parent asteroids consisted of ～80% equilibrated and 20% unequilibrated chondritic material and that their original radii ranged from 80 to 95 km.     

Towards a conjoint-based, context-dependent model of task allocation in activity settings: Some numerical experiments

 None of the currently developed activity-based models of transport demand explicitly models task allocation among household members. To fill this gap, the present paper suggests to complement activity-based models of activity scheduling with a context-dependent model of task allocation. That is, it is assumed that the allocation of tasks within households is partly based on such contextual variables as the amount of time a member has to spend on mandatory activities and car availability. In particular, the paper advocates a conjoint-based approach, based on an assignment task as opposed to the traditional ranking, rating or choice response formats. By definition, an assignment task involves a combinatorial explosion of choice alternatives, implying that additional operational decisions to estimate the context-dependent model are required. This study presents the results of various numerical experiments, conducted to better understand the impacts of those decisions on the degree of bias in the parameter estimates of the choice model. The results of these simulations indicate that under particular assumptions, the development and estimation of a conjoint-based, context-dependent model of task allocation within households is feasible. Received: March 1999 / Accepted: June 2001     

Dust emission from comets at large heliocentric distances

Possible mechanisms for the production of the extended dust coma observed in comet Bowell (1980b) at the large heliocentric distance of 7.17 AU are considered. It is concluded that a plausible mechanism is electrostatic blow-off of fine, loose dust from an electrically charged H₂O dominated nucleus, as recently proposed by Mendiset al. (1981). Of all the other processes considered, dust entrainment by a chemical species more volatile than H₂O is considered the most plausible. However, the non-observation of prominent CO⁺ lines of theA ²-X ² band, seems to mitigate against a CO dominated nucleus, particularly if its radius is 1 km. A CO₂ dominated nucleus, however, cannot be ruled out by this non-observation unless its radius is considerably larger ( 5 km). The electrostatic blow-off process predicts that the dust grains in the coma of comet Bowell at 7.17 AU must be very small (r _g0.4 ), with a total mass 4×10⁸ g, and a spatial extension 10⁵ km, which is consistent with the observations (observed coma diameter 6×10⁴ km). Both the size and spatial distribution of the dust given by electrostatic blow-off and the gas entrainment processes are shown to be different, and this would be a way of discriminating between the two processes. However, the present observations do not have the resolution to do so.Department of Physics.Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences.