Quantitative analysis of the impact of droughts and floods on internal wars in China over the last 500 years

Although many large-N quantitative studies have evidenced the adverse effects of climatic extremes on social stability in China during the historical period, most of them rely on temperature and precipitation as major explanatory variables, while the influence of floods and droughts on social crises is rarely measured. Furthermore, a comparison of the climate-society nexus among different geographic regions and at different temporal scales is missing in those studies. To address this knowledge gap,this study examines quantitatively the influence of floods and droughts on internal wars in three agro-ecological(rice, wheat,and pastoral) regions in China in AD1470–1911. Poisson regression and wavelet transform coherence analyses are applied to allow for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the climate-war nexus. Results show that floods and droughts are significant in driving internal wars in historical China, but are characterized by strong regional variation. In the rice region, floods trigger internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the wheat region, both floods and droughts cause internal wars at the inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales. In the pastoral region, internal wars are associated with floods only at the multi-decadal time scale. In addition, the multi-decadal coherence between hydro-climatic extremes and internal wars in all three of the agro-ecological regions is only significant in periods in which population density is increasing or the upper limit of regional carrying capacity is being reached. The above results imply that the climate-war nexus is mediated by regional geographic factors such as physical environmental setting and population pressure. Hence, we encourage researchers who study the historical human-climate relationship to boil down data according to geographic regions in the course of statistical analysis and to examine each region individually in follow-up studies.     

Extreme behavior in a triple friction pendulum isolated frame

While isolation can provide significantly enhanced performance compared to fixed‐base counter parts in design level or even maximum considered level earthquakes, there is still uncertainty over the performance of isolation systems in extreme events. Researchers have looked at component level stability of rubber bearings and on the effect of moat impact on behavior of structures isolated on general bilinear isolators. However, testing of triple friction pendulum (TFP) sliding bearings has not been done dynamically or incorporated into a building system. Here, one‐third scale laboratory tests were conducted to on a 2‐story 2‐bay TFP‐isolated structure. Input motions were increasingly scaled until failure occurred at the isolation level. As the superstructure was designed with a yield force equivalent to the force of the bearing just at their ultimate displacement capacity, there was minimal yielding. A numerical model is presented to simulate the isolated building up to and including bearing failure. Forces transferred to the superstructure in extreme motions are examined using both experimental and numerical data. Additionally, the effect of the hardening stage of the TFP bearing is evaluated using the numerical model, finding slight benefits.     

GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle

In 1989, the need for reliable gridded land surface precipitation data sets, in view of the large uncertainties in the assessment of the global energy and water cycle, has led to the establishment of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) at Deutscher Wetterdienst on invitation of the WMO. The GPCC has calculated a precipitation climatology for the global land areas for the target period 1951–2000 by objective analysis of climatological normals of about 67,200 rain gauge stations from its data base. GPCC's new precipitation climatology is compared to several other station-based precipitation climatologies as well as to precipitation climatologies derived from the GPCP V2.2 data set and from ECMWF's model reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Finally, how GPCC's best estimate for terrestrial mean precipitation derived from the precipitation climatology of 786 mm per year (equivalent to a water transport of 117,000 km³) is fitting into the global water cycle context is discussed.     

Storm response of a mixed sand gravel beach ridge plain under falling relative sea levels: A stratigraphic investigation using ground penetrating radar

Beach ridge stratigraphy can provide an important record of both sustained coastal progradation and responses to events such as extreme storms, as well as evidence of earthquake induced sediment pulses. This study is a stratigraphic investigation of the late Holocene mixed sand gravel (MSG) beach ridge plain on the Canterbury coast, New Zealand. The subsurface was imaged along a 370 m shore-normal transect using 100 and 200 MHz ground penetrating radar (GPR) antennae, and cored to sample sediment textures. Results show that, seaward of a back-barrier lagoon, the Pegasus Bay beach ridge plain prograded almost uniformly, under conditions of relatively stable sea level. Nearshore sediment supply appears to have created a sustained sediment surplus, perhaps as a result of post-seismic sediment pulses, resulting in a flat, morphologically featureless beach ridge plain. Evidence of a high magnitude storm provides an exception, with an estimated event return period in excess of 100 years. Evidence from the GPR sequence combined with modern process observations from MSG beaches indicates that a palaeo-storm initially created a washover fan into the back-barrier lagoon, with a large amount of sediment simultaneously moved off the beach face into the nearshore. This erosion event resulted in a topographic depression still evident today. In the subsequent recovery period, sediment was reworked by swash onto the beach as a sequence of berm deposit laminations, creating an elevated beach ridge that also has a modern-day topographic signature. As sediment supply returned to normal, and under conditions of falling sea level, a beach ridge progradation sequence accumulated seaward of the storm feature out to the modern-day beach as a large flat, uniform progradation plain. This study highlights the importance of extreme storm events and earthquake pulses on MSG coastlines in triggering high volume beach ridge formation during the subsequent recovery period. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Tailored Computation of the Mean Dynamic Topography for a Consistent Integration into Ocean Circulation Models

Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography—the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99–110, 2012; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie 2012). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.     

Geophysical constraints on deep weathering and water storage potential in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory

The conversion of bedrock to regolith marks the inception of critical zone processes, but the factors that regulate it remain poorly understood. Although the thickness and degree of weathering of regolith are widely thought to be important regulators of the development of regolith and its water‐storage potential, the functional relationships between regolith properties and the processes that generate it remain poorly documented. This is due in part to the fact that regolith is difficult to characterize by direct observations over the broad scales needed for process‐based understanding of the critical zone. Here we use seismic refraction and resistivity imaging techniques to estimate variations in regolith thickness and porosity across a forested slope and swampy meadow in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Inferred seismic velocities and electrical resistivities image a weathering zone ranging in thickness from 10 to 35 m (average = 23 m) along one intensively studied transect. The inferred weathering zone consists of roughly equal thicknesses of saprolite (P‐velocity < 2 km s^?1) and moderately weathered bedrock (P‐velocity = 2–4 km s^?1). A minimum‐porosity model assuming dry pore space shows porosities as high as 50% near the surface, decreasing to near zero at the base of weathered rock. Physical properties of saprolite samples from hand augering and push cores are consistent with our rock physics model when variations in pore saturation are taken into account. Our results indicate that saprolite is a crucial reservoir of water, potentially storing an average of 3 m³ m^?2 of water along a forested slope in the headwaters of the SSCZO. When coupled with published erosion rates from cosmogenic nuclides, our geophysical estimates of weathering zone thickness imply regolith residence times on the order of 10⁵ years. Thus, soils at the surface today may integrate weathering over glacial–interglacial fluctuations in climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating the sensitivity of wetlands to climate change with remote sensing techniques

Wetlands are valuable ecosystems that provide many valuable services, yet many of these important ecosystems are at risk because of current trends in climate change. The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in the upper‐midwest of the United States and south‐central Canada, characterized by glacially sculpted landscapes and abundant wetlands, is one such vulnerable region. According to regional/global climate model predictions, drought occurrence will increase in the PPR region through the 21st century and thus will probably cause the amount of water in wetlands to decline. Water surface area (WSA) of Kidder County, ND, from 1984–2011 was measured by classifying TM/ETM+(Landsat Thematic Mapper / Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) images through the modified normalized difference water index. We then developed a linear model based on the WSA of these wetlands and historical climate data and used this to determine the wetland sensitivity to climate change and predict future wetlands WSA in the PPR. Our model based on Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) of the current year (PDSI_{t ? 0}) and of the previous two years (PDSI_{t ? 2}) can explain 79% of the annual wetland WSA variance, suggesting a high sensitivity of wetlands to drought/climate change. We also predicted the PPR wetlands WSA in the 21st century under A1B scenario (a mid‐carbon emission scenario) using simulated PDSI based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 22‐model ensemble climate. According to our prediction, the WSA of the PPR wetlands will decrease to less than half of the baseline WSA (defined as the mean wetlands WSA of the 2000s) by the mid of the 21st century, and to less than one‐third by the 2080s, and will then slightly increase in the 2090s. This considerable future wetland loss caused only by climate change provides important implication to future wetland management and climate adaptation policy. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transfer functions simulating the coprecipitation of trace elements in unsaturated soils

Transfer functions describing the coprecipitation of various trace elements (TE; As, Cd, Co, Cu, Cr, Mo, Ni, Pb, Zn), precipitating with iron(oxihydr)oxides from an aqueous solution, were developed and implemented in the computer model ‘Seeper’. ‘Seeper’ was developed to predict the progression of the concentrations of inorganic pollutants in unsaturated soils underneath contaminated areas and to evaluate the prospective contamination of the groundwater. Transfer functions provide a straight and simple relation between the coprecipitation of TE and easy to obtain standard soil parameters, without excessive repercussions on the usability and computation time of the model. Laboratory experiments were conducted to quantify coprecipitation in solutions with pH values ranging from 5 to 12 and containing various iron and TE concentrations. For the examined TE, the transfer functions describe the coprecipitated fraction as a function of the pH value and the concentration ratio between precipitated iron and a TE. The transfer functions yielded a good prediction of cadmium, cobalt, copper, molybdenum, nickel, and zinc (R ² from 0.73 to 0.83). As for arsenic, chromium, and lead the correlation was not as good albeit a significant influence of precipitating iron on the mobility of these elements was observed and represented in the corresponding transfer functions.     

Lava penetrating water: the different behaviours of pāhoehoe and ‘a‘ā at the Nesjahraun, Tingvellir, Iceland

The Nesjahraun is a basaltic lava flow erupted from a subaerial fissure, extending NE along the Tingvellir graben from the Hengill central volcano that produced pāhoehoe lava followed by ‘a‘ā. The Nesjahraun entered Iceland’s largest lake, Tingvallavatn, along its southern shore during both phases of the eruption and exemplifies lava flowing into water in a lacustrine environment in the absence of powerful wave action. This study combines airborne light detection and ranging, sidescan sonar and Chirp seismic data with field observations to investigate the behaviour of the lava as it entered the water. Pāhoehoe sheet lava was formed during the early stages of the eruption. Along the shoreline, stacks of thin (5–20 cm thick), vesicular, flows rest upon and surround low (<5 m) piles of coarse, unconsolidated, variably oxidised spatter. Clefts within the lava run inland from the lake. These are 2–5 m wide, >2 m deep, ∼50 m long, spaced ∼50 m apart and have sub-horizontal striations on the walls. They likely represent channels or collapsed tubes along which lava was delivered into the water. A circular rootless cone, Eldborg, formed when water infiltrated a lava tube. Offshore from the pāhoehoe lavas, the gradient of the flow surface steepens, suggesting a change in flow regime and the development of a talus ramp. Later, the flow was focused into a channel of ‘a‘ā lava, ∼200–350 m wide. This split into individual flow lobes 20–50 m wide along the shore. ‘A‘ā clinker is exposed on the water’s edge, as well as glassy sand and gravel, which has been locally intruded by small (<1 m), irregularly shaped, lava bodies. The cores of the flow lobes contain coherent, but hackly fractured lava. Mounds consisting predominantly of scoria lapilli and the large paired half-cone of Grámelur were formed in phreatomagmatic explosions. The ‘a‘ā flow can be identified underwater over 1 km offshore, and the sidescan data suggest that the flow lobes remained coherent flowing down a gradient of <10°. The Nesjahraun demonstrates that, even in the absence of ocean waves, phreatomagmatic explosions are ubiquitous and that pāhoehoe flows are much more likely to break up on entering the water than ‘a‘ā flows, which, with a higher flux and shallow underlying surface gradient, can penetrate water and remain coherent over distances of at least 1 km.     

Relating petroleum system and play development to basin evolution: West African South Atlantic basins

Sedimentary basins can be classified according to their structural genesis and evolutionary history and the latter can be linked to petroleum system and play development. We propose an approach in which we use the established concepts in a new way: breaking basins down into their natural basin cycle division, then defining the characteristics of each basin cycle (including the type of petroleum systems and plays they may contain) and comparing them with similar basin cycles in other basins, thereby providing a means to learn through a greater population of (perhaps not immediately obvious) analogues. Furthermore, we introduce the use of the trajectory plot as a new tool in such an analysis. This methodology has been applied to the West African South Atlantic marginal basins between Cameroon and Angola, and we demonstrate that the similar tectonostratigraphic evolution of the individual basins along this margin has led to the development of similar types of petroleum systems and play (level)s. Consequently, we can make analogue comparisons among these basins in order to evaluate and predict the presence of potential, yet undiscovered, hydrocarbon accumulations in less well explored parts of the margin.