Re-assessment of foundation settlements for the Burj Khalifa, Dubai

This paper deals with the re-assessment of foundation settlements for the Burj Khalifa Tower in Dubai. The foundation system for the tower is a piled raft, founded on deep deposits of calcareous rocks. Two computer programs, Geotechnical Analysis of Raft with Piles (GARP) and Non-linear Analysis of Piled Rafts (NAPRA) have been used for the settlement analyses, and the paper outlines the procedure adopted to re-assess the foundation settlements based on a careful interpretation of load tests on trial piles in which the interaction effects of the pile test set-up are allowed for. The paper then examines the influence of a series of factors on the computed settlements. In order to obtain reasonable estimates of differential settlements within the system, it is found desirable to incorporate the effects of the superstructure stiffness which act to increase the stiffness of the overall foundation system. Values of average and differential settlements for the piled raft calculated with GARP and NAPRA were found to be in reasonable agreement with measured data on settlements taken near the end of construction of the tower.     

Frictional sliding in serpentine at very high pressure

Using a new four-channel system for detecting acoustic emissions in a multianvil apparatus, we have assessed the pressure–temperature range for such emissions, as well as the role of dehydration, by deforming samples of extensively serpentinized peridotite. We show that in the absence of dehydration and for samples initially faulted at low pressure, acoustic emissions occurred well outside the expected pressure–temperature field of unassisted brittle failure. Emissions were also detected during and after dehydration of serpentine. Microstructures of post-run specimens revealed fault slip with offsets up to ~ 500 μm, regardless of whether or not dehydration took place. Dehydration appears to effectively stop slip on pre-existing faults and create new ones. Analysis of P-wave travel times from the four sensors confirmed that the acoustic emissions originated within the specimen during fault slip. These observations suggest that earthquakes can be triggered by slip along an existing fault containing serpentine under significantly higher pressure and temperature conditions than previously thought possible without dehydration.     

多代理人系统在商业街消费者行为模拟中的应用——以上海南京东路为例

用模型方法研究消费者行为经历了从集合模型到个体模型的过程.随着计算机技术的进步,近十余年来多代理人技术得到了长足的发展.当前,将消费者个体行为模型和多代理人系统相结合来模拟商业街消费者活动,已经成为相关研究和实践领域的前沿方法.其主要优点在于能够使相关人员以单个消费者为基础,整合复杂的相关因素,预测整体或局部商业空间的动态运行效果,作为规划开发的依据.本文介绍由笔者基于NetLogo开发的一个模拟商业街消费者行为的多代理人模拟平台,包括系统的建构和模拟的流程.该模拟系统的核心由四个基于有限理性原理的消费者决策模型构成:回家决策、方向选择决策、休息决策、商店光顾决策.然后应用这个平台于研究上海南京东路消费者行为的实例.该数据收集于2007年,现场记录了消费者在南京东路的活动过程,并被用于拟合行为模型.将模拟的代理人个体行为集合后,于三方面同观察到的消费者实际行为作比较,包括从事不同活动的消费者数量随时间的变化、在各街道段中活动的消费者数量随时间的变化,以及单个商店中的消费者人次和延时;同时分析了模拟中的问题.结果显示该模拟平台总体上能够较好地预测消费者集合行为.     

A critical evaluation of oxidation versus reduction during metamorphism of L and LL group chondrites,and implications for asteroid spectroscopy

Abstract— Modal mineralogies of individual, equilibrated (petrologic type 4–6 L and LL chondrites have been measured using an electron microprobe mapping technique, and the chemical compositions of coexisting silicate minerals have been analyzed. Progressive changes in the relative abundances and in the molar Fe/Mn and Fe/Mg ratios of olivine, low‐Ca pyroxene, and diopside occur with increasing metamorphic grade. Variations in olivine/low‐Ca pyroxene ratios (Ol/Px) and in metal abundances and compositions with petrologic type support the hypothesis that oxidation of metallic iron accompanied thermal metamorphism in ordinary chondrites. Modal Ol/Px ratios are systematically lower than normative Ol/Px ratios for the same meteorites, suggesting that the commonly used C.I.P.W. norm calculation procedure may not adequately estimate silicate mineral abundances in reduced chondrites. Ol/Px ratios calculated from visible and near‐infrared (VISNIR) reflectance spectra of the same meteorites are not in agreement with other Ol/Px determinations, possibly because of spectral complexities arising from other minerals in chondrites. Characteristic features in VISNIR spectra are sensitive to the proportions and compositions of olivine and pyroxenes, the minerals most affected by oxidative metamorphism. This work may allow spectral calibration for the determination of mineralogy and petrologic type, and thus may be useful for spectroscopic studies of asteroids.     

Stratigraphic status,age, and paleobathymetry of the Grey shale Member,Dalmiapuram Formation,Cauvery Basin,India

Grey shale Member of the Dalmiapuram Formation, Ariyalur Group, Cauvery Basin, India was studied for its stratigraphic position, age, and paleobathymetry with a re-look into the lithological relationship and foraminifer assemblages in the deepened limestone mine excavations at M/s Dalmia Cements, Dalmiapuram. Twenty grey shale samples from Kovandankurchchi (pit-4) and Kallakkudi mines yielded diversified calcareous, benthic, and rare index planktic foraminifera. The foraminiferal assemblages suggest a latest Albian age and middle neritic depositional conditions. The abundance of kaolinite and smectite clay minerals relate to warm/humid climate which corroborate with rising relative sea level during grey shale deposition. The grey shale occurs in patches within the marl bedded limestone member which exhibits cyclic deposition of limestone and marl. The limestone mine sections demonstrate that the grey shale forms part of basal marl bedded limestone, directly overlying the coral algal limestone. The present study demonstrates that the grey shale outcrops in Dalmiapuram Formation should be placed stratigraphically as part of marl bedded limestone. The member status for grey shale which is current usage stands discounted.     

Hydrogeology and sustainable future groundwater abstraction from the Agua Verde aquifer in the Atacama Desert,northern Chile

The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m³/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.     

Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.     

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.     

Melt inclusions in augite of the Nakhla martian meteorite: Evidence for basaltic parental melt

Abstract— Nakhla contains crystallized melt inclusions that were trapped in augite and olivine when these phases originally formed on Mars. Our study involved rehomogenization (slow‐heating and fast‐heating) experiments on multiphase melt inclusions in Nakhla augite. We studied melt inclusions trapped in augite because this phase re‐equilibrated with the external melt to a lesser extent than olivine and results could be directly compared with previous Nakhla melt inclusion studies. Following heating and homogenization of encapsulated melt inclusions, single mineral grains were mounted and polished to expose inclusions. Major element chemistry was determined by electron microprobe. The most primitive melt inclusion analyzed in Nakhla NA03 is basaltic and closely matches previously reported nakhlite parent melt compositions. MELTS equilibrium and fractional crystallization models calculated for NA03 and previous Nakhla parent melt estimates at QFM and QFM‐1 produced phase assemblages and compositions that can be compared to Nakhla. Of these models, equilibrium crystallization of NA03 at QFM‐1 produced the best match to mineral phases and compositions in Nakhla. In all models, olivine and augite co‐crystallize, consistent with the hypothesis that olivine is not xenocrystic but has undergone subsolidus re‐equilibration. In addition, measured melt inclusion compositions plot along the MELTS‐calculated liquid line of descent and may represent pockets of melt trapped at various stages during crystallization. We attempt to resolve discrepancies between previous estimates of the Nakhla parental melt composition and to reinterpret the results of a previous study of rehomogenized melt inclusions in Nakhla. Melt inclusions demonstrate that Nakhla is an igneous rock whose parent melt composition and crystallization history reflect planetary igneous processes.