Measuring the goodness-of-fit of decision-tree models of discrete and continuous activity-travel choice: methods and empirical illustration

The use of decision tree models for predicting activity-travel choice is receiving increasing attention, but raises two related problems that are considered in this study. First, commonly used deterministic action-assignment rules should be replaced by probabilistic action-assignment rules. We develop such probabilistic rules for both discrete and continuous choice problems. Second, common goodness-of-fit measures such as the hit-ratio need to be replaced by likelihood measures. In this paper, we develop and empirically illustrate the interrelated methods and measures. The findings suggest that the new measures add information to existing statistics for discrete as well as the continuous choice.     

Urbanization pressure increases potential for soils-related hazards,Denton County,Texas

The Dallas-Fort Worth region was the fastest growing metropolitan area in the US in the decade 1990–2000. Rapid urbanization accompanied this population growth. A GIS-based analysis of urban growth in Denton County revealed that 53% of new urban development was on soils rated of low suitability for urban uses by the Soil Conservation Service. This compares to only 15% of urban areas on low-suitability soils prior to 1990. These soils are considered poorly suited for urban uses because they are montmorillonitic expansive soils. Expansive soils are known to cause damage to structures, including slab foundations used extensively in new housing in the Dallas–Fort Worth region. Increased urban development on these soils has increased the potential for soils-related hazards.     

Common reed grass,<Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis>, expansion into constructed wetlands: Are we mortgaging our wetland future?

The use of constructed wetlands to replace natural wetlands has become a widespread management tool. Because of the inherent disturbed nature of these sites, constructed wetlands are susceptible to colonization by undesirable plant species. Vegetated communities in 15 constructed wetland sites ranging in age from 1 to 12 yr and in size from 0.4 to 5.3 ha were surveyed using differential global positioning system (GPS) technology in 1994. These sites were re-surveyed in 2000. Colonization of the sites byPhragmites australis expanded from 73% of the sites in 1994 to 80% of the sites in 2000. The total area colonized byP. australis within the sites increased from 3.47 to 4.96 ha. In some sites, the area ofP. australis decreased, which appears to be correlated with an increase in scrub-shrub vegetation (0.986, p=0.014). Similar to results from the previous study, sites that are surrounded by subtidal perimeter ditches have significantly lessP. australis than those sites without perimeter ditches (p=0.019).P. australis expansion rates within the sites varied from 0.1 to 5.6 yr^?1. Colonization of constructed wetland sites byP. australis should be a continued concern of resource managers. Activities such as planting scrub-shrub species on the upland-wetland berm and construction of subtidal perimeter ditches should be considered as methods to reduce the probability of invasion.     

Trends and variability of sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, 1953–2001

The extent and duration of sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait has a major impact on the timing and strength of the marine production along West Greenland. The advance and retreat of the sea ice follows a predictable pattern, with maximum extent typically in March. We examine the area of sea ice in March in three overlapping study regions centred on Disko Bay on the west coast of Greenland. Sea ice concentration estimates derived from satellite passive microwave data are available for the years 1979-2001. We extend the record back in time by digitizing ice charts from the Danish Meteorological Institute, 1953-1981. There is reasonable agreement between the chart data and the satellite data during the three years of overlap: 1979-1981. We find a significant increasing trend in sea ice for the 49-year period (1953-2001) for the study regions that extend into Davis Strait and Baffin Bay. The cyclical nature of the wintertime ice area is also evident, with a period of about 8 to 9 years. Correlation of the winter sea ice concentration with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index shows moderately high values in Baffin Bay. The correlation of ice concentration with the previous winter's NAO is high in Davis Strait and suggests that next winter's ice conditions can be predicted to some extent by this winter's NAO index.     

The Uppsala seismograph array station

Summary The Seismological Institute at Uppsala, Sweden, has operated a triangular array station for one year, August 1969 to August 1970. The triangle is almost equilateral with around 100 km side, with one corner at Uppsala and the other two at Hedemora and Kungsör. Short-period vertical-component seismographs of type Grenet-Coulomb are used. The signals are transmitted over commercial telephone lines to the central recording unit at Uppsala. This paper describes all technical details of the system, with particular emphasis on the signal transmission. Experiences from the operation are given. In spite of only three points in the array, it serves its purposes very well, primarily because of its location on very homogeneous ground, the Baltic shield. Moreover, the installation and operation of such an array is generally possible within the limited budgets of a university Institute.     

Lineations on the “White” Accumulation Areas of the Residual Northern Ice Cap of Mars: Their Relation to the “Accublation” and Ice Flow Hypothesis

Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images of the whiter areas of the residual North Polar Cap (P. C. Thomas et al. 2000, Nature404, 161-164) show a gentle hummocky pitted surface that has been popularly called “cottage cheese” terrain. The pits are 1 or 2 m deep and tens of meters across. They are typically joined in roughly linear strings or long depressions and these features are referred to here as “lineations.” The lineations tend to have one or occasionally two preferred directions. We have examined the MOC imagery for the North Cap and using high-resolution images that have good wide-angle context images were able to determine the lineation angles for 31 sites scattered over most of the ice cap.We propose a process that will produce linear features in the white areas, then relate the orientation of the lineations over much of the North Cap to these processes and the inferred ice flow direction. There is first-order agreement between the measured sign of the lineation angles and those predicted assuming ice flow. Higher accumulations and velocities are predicted in the catchment for ice that flows into Chasma Boreale. This comes from the indications that katabatic winds are concentrated in this catchment.