Comments on “Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming” by Labat et al.

We have examined the evidence presented by Labat et al. and found that (1) their claims for a 4% increase in global runoff arising from a 1 °C increase in air temperature and (2) that their article provides the “first experimental data-based evidence demonstrating the link between the global warming and the intensification of the global hydrological cycle” are not supported by the data presented. Our conclusions are based on the facts that (1) their discharge records exhibit non-climatic influences and trends, (2) their work cannot refute previous studies finding no relation between air temperature and runoff, (3) their conclusions cannot explain relations before 1925, and (4) the statistical significance of their results hinges on a single data point that exerts undue influence on the slope of the regression line. We argue that Labat et al. have not provided sufficient evidence to support their claim for having detected increases in global runoff resulting from climate warming.     

Stratigraphic status,age, and paleobathymetry of the Grey shale Member,Dalmiapuram Formation,Cauvery Basin,India

Grey shale Member of the Dalmiapuram Formation, Ariyalur Group, Cauvery Basin, India was studied for its stratigraphic position, age, and paleobathymetry with a re-look into the lithological relationship and foraminifer assemblages in the deepened limestone mine excavations at M/s Dalmia Cements, Dalmiapuram. Twenty grey shale samples from Kovandankurchchi (pit-4) and Kallakkudi mines yielded diversified calcareous, benthic, and rare index planktic foraminifera. The foraminiferal assemblages suggest a latest Albian age and middle neritic depositional conditions. The abundance of kaolinite and smectite clay minerals relate to warm/humid climate which corroborate with rising relative sea level during grey shale deposition. The grey shale occurs in patches within the marl bedded limestone member which exhibits cyclic deposition of limestone and marl. The limestone mine sections demonstrate that the grey shale forms part of basal marl bedded limestone, directly overlying the coral algal limestone. The present study demonstrates that the grey shale outcrops in Dalmiapuram Formation should be placed stratigraphically as part of marl bedded limestone. The member status for grey shale which is current usage stands discounted.     

Hydrogeology and sustainable future groundwater abstraction from the Agua Verde aquifer in the Atacama Desert,northern Chile

The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m³/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.     

Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.     

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.     

A critical evaluation of oxidation versus reduction during metamorphism of L and LL group chondrites,and implications for asteroid spectroscopy

Abstract— Modal mineralogies of individual, equilibrated (petrologic type 4–6 L and LL chondrites have been measured using an electron microprobe mapping technique, and the chemical compositions of coexisting silicate minerals have been analyzed. Progressive changes in the relative abundances and in the molar Fe/Mn and Fe/Mg ratios of olivine, low‐Ca pyroxene, and diopside occur with increasing metamorphic grade. Variations in olivine/low‐Ca pyroxene ratios (Ol/Px) and in metal abundances and compositions with petrologic type support the hypothesis that oxidation of metallic iron accompanied thermal metamorphism in ordinary chondrites. Modal Ol/Px ratios are systematically lower than normative Ol/Px ratios for the same meteorites, suggesting that the commonly used C.I.P.W. norm calculation procedure may not adequately estimate silicate mineral abundances in reduced chondrites. Ol/Px ratios calculated from visible and near‐infrared (VISNIR) reflectance spectra of the same meteorites are not in agreement with other Ol/Px determinations, possibly because of spectral complexities arising from other minerals in chondrites. Characteristic features in VISNIR spectra are sensitive to the proportions and compositions of olivine and pyroxenes, the minerals most affected by oxidative metamorphism. This work may allow spectral calibration for the determination of mineralogy and petrologic type, and thus may be useful for spectroscopic studies of asteroids.     

Oblique oceanic opening and passive margin irregularity,as inherited in the Zagros fold‐and‐thrust belt

The Zagros fold‐and‐thrust belt of SW Iran represents deformation of the former Arabian passive margin since Permian–Triassic opening of the Neo‐Tethys ocean. The Zagros belt is characterized by a present‐day structural salient‐recess setting inherited from past marginal embayment‐promontory geometry, which was involved in discontinuous ophiolite obduction and diachronous continental collision. We examine outcrop‐scale Mesozoic extensional brittle tectonics, preserved as syn‐depositional normal faults within the folded strata, in terms of stress tensor inversion. The result is then integrated with belt‐scale isopach, seismic and topographical data to delineate the geometry of a major irregularity along the passive margin originating from oblique oceanic opening. The implication of this configuration within the tectonic framework of oceanic closure is discussed.     

基于势流理论和OpenFOAM的耦合模型对多向不规则波浪的模拟

基于势流理论的数值水池可以快速计算波浪的传播及其对建筑物的作用,但是势流理论是基于波浪的无黏性假设的,而在工程中,通常需要在固体边界及波浪破碎的区域考虑黏性效应。针对基于求解Navier-Stokes方程的黏性水池计算量较大、速度较慢的缺点,采用耦合的方法模拟多向不规则波浪的传播,即在外域通过基于势流理论的数值水池产生多向不规则波浪,内域采用求解Navier-Stokes方程和流体体积法(VOF方法)对自由表面进行追踪,通过外域所提供的边界波浪,内域计算可以在较小区域进行计算,从而达到减少计算量、提高计算效率的目的。     

AMS 14C age constraints on geoglyphs in the lower colorado river region,arizona and california

Giant ground figures are widespread in the lower Colorado River area of southwestern North America, yet their chronology has remained unconstrained by numerical ages. Thirteen AMS ¹⁴C measurements reported here indicate that geoglyphs were made from before ˜A. D. 1200 to before ˜900 B. C. We account for potential contamination from prior organics in weathering rinds. All other potential errors point to ¹⁴C dates being minimum-limiting ages for the manufacturing of geoglyphs. Although these ages indicate considerable chronological complexity among geoglyphs, our data are consistent with the linguistic hypothesis that the Yuman people in the desert of southeastern California migrated from Baja California—rather than from the north. These results must, however, be placed under the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over the entire field of AMS dating of rock art: the untested assumption surrounding contemporeneity of organics in a surface context. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.