Navigating the dilemmas of climate policy in Europe: evidence from policy evaluation studies

Climate change is widely recognised as a ‘wicked’ policy problem. Agreeing and implementing governance responses is proving extremely difficult. Policy makers in many jurisdictions now emphasise their ambition to govern using the best available evidence. One obvious source of such evidence is the evaluations of the performance of existing policies. But to what extent do these evaluations provide insights into the difficult dilemmas that governors typically encounter? We address this question by reviewing the content of 262 evaluation studies of European climate policies in the light of six kinds of dilemma found in the governance literature. We are interested in what these studies say about the performance of European climate policies and in their capacity to inform evidence-based policy-making. We find that the evaluations do arrive at common findings: that climate change is framed as a problem of market and/or state failure; that voluntary measures tend to be ineffective; that market-based instruments tend to be regressive; that EU-level policies have driven climate policies in the latecomer EU Member States; and that lack of monitoring and weak enforcement are major obstacles to effective policy implementation. However, we also conclude that the evidence base these studies represent is surprisingly weak for such a high profile area. There is too little systematic climate policy evaluation work in the EU to support systematic evidence-based policy making. This reduces the scope for sound policy making in the short run and is a constraint to policy learning in the longer term.     

Effect of Decoupling of Lithospheric Plates on the Observed Geoid

A joint effect of weak zones, dividing lithospheric plates, and lateral viscosity variations (LVV) in the whole mantle on the observed geoid is investigated by a new numerical approach. This technique is based on the substantially revised method introduced by Zhang and Christensen (Geophys J Int 114:531–547, 1993) for solving the Navier–Stokes–Poisson equations in the spectral domain with strong LVV. Weak plate boundaries (WPB) are introduced based on an integrated global model of plate boundary deformations GSRM (Kreemer et al. in Geophys J Int 154:8–34, 2003). The effect of WPB on the geoid is significant and reaches ?40 to 70 m with RMS ~20 m. The peaks are observed over large subduction zones in South America and the southwestern Pacific in agreement with previous studies. The positive geoid anomaly in South America could be explained largely by a dynamic effect of decoupling of the Nazca and South American plates. The negative changes of the geoid mostly relate to mid-oceanic ridges. The amplitude of the effect depends on the viscosity contrasts at WPB compared with the plate viscosity until its value reaches the limit of 2.5–3 orders of magnitude. This value might be considered as a level at which the plates are effectively decoupled. The effect of WPB exceeds the effect of LVV in the whole mantle and generally does not correlate with it. However, inclusion of LVV reduces the geoid perturbations due to WPB by about 10 m. Therefore, it is important to consider all factors together. The geoid changes mainly result from changes of the dynamic topography, which are about ?300 to +500 m. The obtained results show that including WPB may significantly improve the reliability of instantaneous global dynamic models.     

Effective and geographically balanced? An output-based assessment of non-state climate actions

At COP21 in Paris, governments reiterated the importance of ‘non-Party’ contributions, placing big bets that the efforts of cities, regions, investors, companies, and other social groups will help keep average global warming limited to well under 2°C. However, there is little systematic knowledge concerning the performance of non-state and subnational efforts. We established a database of 52 climate actions launched at the 2014 UN Climate Summit in New York to assess output performance – that is, the production of relevant outputs – to understand whether they are likely to deliver social and environmental impacts. Moreover, we assess to which extent climate actions are implemented across developed and developing countries. We find that climate actions are starting to deliver, and output performance after one year is higher than one might expect from previous experiences with similar actions. However, differences exist between action areas: resilience actions have yet to produce specific outputs, whereas energy and industry actions perform above average. Furthermore, imbalances between developing and developed countries persist. While many actions target low-income and lower-middle-income economies, the implementation gap in these countries remains greater. More efforts are necessary to mobilize and implement actions that benefit the world’s most vulnerable people.

Policy relevance

Climate actions by non-state and subnational actors are an important complement to the multilateral climate regime and the associated contributions made by national governments. Although such actions hold much potential, we still know very little about how they could deliver in practice. This article addresses this knowledge gap, by showing how 52 climate actions announced at the UN Climate Summit in 2014 have performed thus far. Based on our analysis, we argue that the post-Paris action agenda for non-state and subnational climate action should (1) find more effective ways to incentivize private sector actors to engage in transnational climate governance through actions that seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote climate resilience in a tangible manner; (2) identify factors underlying effectiveness, to take appropriate measures to support underperforming climate actions; and (3) address the large implementation gap of climate actions in developing countries.     

Convection experiments and the driving mechanism

The problem of mantle convection is discussed in light of laboratory and numerical experiments. Since Wegener's time our knowledge of earth behaviour has increased, so that we are in a better position to explain continental drift. The explanation of this phenomenon must inevitably include mantle convection. The problem has three aspects: the physical laws, the boundary conditions, and the material. We find that a likely model is high-Rayleigh number convection in a medium of temperature, pressure, and stress-dependent rheology; in this model we expect a strong and heavy upper thermal boundary layer and a fluid and light lower boundary layer. The upper one consists of the lithospheric plates which highly organize the large-scale circulation, while the lower one at the core-mantle boundary becomes unstable in the form of diapirs, plumes, or blobs in a fashion rather independent of the large-scale circulation. This model has the potential of reconciling the conflicting views of horizontal and vertical tectonics.

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Zusammenfassung Das Problem der Mantelkonvektion wird im Lichte neuer Laboratoriums- und Computerexperimente diskutiert. Seit Wegener haben wir über das Verhalten des Erdkörpers manches hinzugelernt, so daß wir bessere Aussichten haben, die Kontinentalverschiebung zu erklären. Die Erklärung muß den Aspekt der Konvektion einschließen, ihre Form ist jedoch noch offen. Das Problem ist ein dreifaches: es umfaßt die Lösung physikalischer Gleichungen, es beinhaltet unzureichend bekannte Randbedingungen, und es schließt die von der Lösung beeinflußten — nicht a priori vorhersagbaren — Materialeigenschaften mit ein. Ein heute wahrscheinliches Modell ist Konvektion bei hoher Rayleigh-Zahl in einem Medium mit temperatur-, druck- und spannungsabhängiger Rheologie. Es sind thermische Grenzschichten zu erwarten, deren obere durch die kalten hochviskosen bzw. festen und schweren Lithosphärenplatten gebildet wird, während die untere an der Kern-Mantel-Grenze heiß, flüssig und leicht ist. Die Platten sind gravitativ instabil und üben einen stark ordnenden Einfluß auf die großräumige Mantelströmung aus. Die untere Grenzschicht ist ebenfalls instabil und hat die Tendenz, die großräumige Zirkulation diapirartig zu durchbrechen. Durch dieses Modell kann der Konflikt zwischen Horizontal- und Vertikaltektonik gelöst werden.

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Résumé Le probléme de la convection du manteau est discuté à la lumière de nouvelles expériences de laboratoire et à l'ordinateur. Depuis Wegener nous avons appris bien des choses sur le comportement du corps terrestre ce qui nous donne de meilleurs vues pour expliquer le déplacement des continents. L'explication doit comporter l'aspect de la convection, dont la forme reste encore ouverte. Le problème est triple: il comporte la solution d'équations physiques, il implique les conditions à la limite qui ne sont pas assez connues, ainsi que les proprietés des matériaux, qui, non prévisibles a priori, sont influencées par les solutions. Un modèle probable est la convection, dans le cas d'un nombre de Rayleigh élevé, dans un milieu à rhéologie dépendant de la température, de la pression et de la tension. Il faut s áttendre à l'existence de couches-limites thermiques, dont la supérieure consiste dans les plaques lithosphériques froides et denses, visqueuses, voire «consolidées», tandis que l'inférieure, située à la limite du manteau et du noyau, est chaude, liquide et légère. Les plaques sont instables et exercent une forte influence dans l'ordonnance à grande échelle des courants du manteau. La couche limite inférieure est également instable et possède la tendance de pénétrer diapiriquement dans cette grande circulation. Ce modèle donne la possiblité de régler le conflit entre la tectonique horizontale et verticale.

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Small-scale instabilities below the cooling oceanic lithosphere

Interpretation of satellite altimetry data as well as ship bathymetry data revealed strongly elongated anomalies roughly perpendicular to the mid-ocean ridges in the Indian and east Pacific oceans. A spectral analysis of gravity altimetry data along profiles parallel to the East Pacific Rise indicated wavelengths of about 150–180  km close to the ridge and about 250  km further away. A simple model of Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities developing at the base of the cooling lithosphere is discussed and applied to the data. By considering thermal diffusion and comparing Rayleigh–Taylor growth rates to the velocity of the thermal front in the cooling lithosphere, we are able to explain the observed anomalies by instabilities developing below the lithosphere in a layer with a viscosity of about 10¹⁹  Pa  s above an asthenospheric layer with a viscosity reduction of 2–3 orders of magnitude.     

Dynamic models of continental rifting with melt generation

Active or passive continental rifting is associated with thinning of the lithosphere, ascent of the asthenosphere, and decompressional melting. This melt may percolate within the partially molten source region, accumulate and be extracted. Two-dimensional numerical models of extension of the continental lithosphere–asthenosphere system are carried out using an Eulerian visco-plastic formulation. The equations of conservation of mass, momentum and energy are solved for a multi-component (crust–mantle) and two-phase (solid–melt) system. Temperature-, pressure-, and stress-dependent rheologies based on laboratory data for granite, pyroxenite and olivine are used for the upper and lower crust, and mantle, respectively. Rifting is modelled by externally prescribing a constant rate of widening with velocities between 2.5 and 40 mm/yr. A typical extension experiment is characterized by 3 phases: 1) distributed extension, with superimposed pinch and swell instability, 2) lithospheric necking, 3) continental break up, followed by oceanization. The timing of the transition from stages 1) to 2) depends on the presence and magnitude of a localized perturbation, and occurs typically after 100–150 km of total extension for the lithospheric system studied here. This necking phase is associated with a pronounced negative topography (“rift valley”) and a few 100 m of rift flanks. The dynamic part of this topography amounts to about 1 km positive topography. This means, if rifting stops (e.g. due to a drop of external forces), immediate additional subsidence by this amount is predicted. Solidification of ascended melt beneath rift flanks leads to basaltic enrichment and underplating beneath the flanks, often observed at volcanic margins. After continental break up, a second time-dependent upwelling event off the rift axis beneath the continental margins is found, producing further volcanics. Melting has almost no or only a small accelerating effect on the local extension value (β-value) for a constant external extension rate. Melting has an extremely strong effect on the upwelling velocity within asthenospheric wedge beneath the new rift. This upwelling velocity is only weakly dependent on the rifting velocity. The melt induced sublithospheric convection cell is characterized by downwelling flow beneath rift flanks. Melting increases the topography of the flanks by 100–200 m due to depletion buoyancy. Another effect of melting is a significant amplification of the central subsidence due to an increase in localized extension/subsidence. Modelled magma amounts are smaller than observed for East African Rift System. Increasing the mantle temperature, as would be the case for a large scale plume head, better fits the observed magma volumes. If extension stops before a new ocean is formed, melt remains present, and convection remains active for 50–100 Myr, and further subsidence is significant.