Changes in Extreme Rainfall Events in South Africa

Extreme rainfall events can have severe impacts on society, so possible long-term changes in the intensity of extreme events are of concern. Testing for long-term changes in the intensity of extreme events is complicated by data inhomogeneities resulting from site and instrumentation changes. Using rainfall data from stations in South Africa that have not involved site relocations, but which have not been tested for inhomogeneities resulting from changes in instrumentation, a method of testing for changes in the intensity of extreme events is adopted. Significant increases in the intensity of extreme rainfall events between 1931–1960 and 1961–1990 are identified over about 70% of the country. The intensity of the 10-year high rainfall events has increased by over 10% over large areas of the country, except in parts of the north-east, north-west and in the winter rainfall region of the south-west. Percentage increases in the intensity of high rainfall events are largest for the most extreme events. While some inhomogeneities remain in the data used, the observed changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events over South Africa are thought to be at least partly real.     

Intercomparison of Secondary Inorganic Aerosol Concentrations in the UK with Predictions of the Unified Danish Eulerian Model

Nitrate and sulphate concentrations were measured over the period January 2002–December 2003 on daily basis at two stations in the UK: a rural site (Harwell) and an urban site (Belfast). The measurements were compared with model results obtained by using the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), which was run using both a coarse resolution grid (50 km × 50 km surface cells) and a fine resolution grid (10 km × 10 km surface cells). The results from the comparison show reasonably good agreement between concentrations measured at the two stations and calculated by the model. This is achieved despite the absence of aqueous phase sulphur oxidation chemistry in the model. The model results were also used to predict the spatial distributions of nitrate and sulphate concentrations in the UK which agree well with observations. The contribution of mainland European emission sources and that of UK sources to pollution levels in the UK was estimated. The relative proportions differ substantially across the UK with the imported contribution to UK sulphate and nitrate typically in the range 20–45% and 35–65% respectively.     

Magnetic anomalies near Apollinaris Patera and the Medusae Fossae Formation in Lucus Planum, Mars

The nature of strong martian crustal field sources is investigated by mapping and modeling of Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer data near Apollinaris Patera, a previously proposed volcanic source, supplemented by large-scale correlative studies. Regional mapping yields evidence for positive correlations of orbital anomalies with both Apollinaris Patera and Lucus Planum, a nearby probable extrusive pyroclastic flow deposit that is mapped as part of the Medusae Fossae Formation. Iterative forward modeling of the Apollinaris Patera magnetic anomaly assuming a source model consisting of one or more uniformly magnetized near-surface disks indicates that the source is centered approximately on the construct with a scale size several times larger and comparable to that of the Apollinaris Patera free-air gravity anomaly. A significantly lower rms deviation is obtained using a two-disk model that favors a concentration of magnetization near the construct itself. Estimates for the dipole moment per unit area of the Lucus Planum source together with maximum thicknesses of ∼3 km based on topographic and radar sounding data lead to an estimated minimum magnetization intensity of ∼50 A/m within the pyroclastic deposits. Intensities of this magnitude are similar to those obtained experimentally for Fe-rich Mars analog basalts that cooled in an oxidizing (high fO₂) environment in the presence of a strong (?10 μT) surface field. Further evidence for the need for an oxidizing environment is provided by a broad spatial correlation of the locations of phyllosilicate exposures identified to date using Mars Express OMEGA data with areas containing strong crustal magnetic fields and valley networks in the Noachian-aged southern highlands. This indicates that the presence of liquid water, which is a major crustal oxidant, was an important factor in the formation of strong magnetic sources. The evidence discussed here for magnetic sources associated with relatively young volcanic units suggests that a martian dynamo existed during the late Noachian/early Hesperian, after the last major basin-forming impacts and the formation of the northern lowlands.     

The early Holocene sea level rise

The causes, anatomy and consequences of the early Holocene sea level rise (EHSLR) are reviewed. The rise, of ca 60m, took place over most of the Earth as the volume of the oceans increased during deglaciation and is dated at 11,650–7000 cal. BP. The EHSLR was largely driven by meltwater release from decaying ice masses and the break up of coastal ice streams. The patterns of ice sheet decay and the evidence for meltwater pulses are reviewed, and it is argued that the EHSLR was a factor in the ca 8470 BP flood from Lake Agassiz-Ojibway. Patterns of relative sea level changes are examined and it is argued that in addition to regional variations, temporal changes are indicated. The impact of the EHSLR on climate is reviewed and it is maintained that the event was a factor in the 8200 BP cooling event, as well as in changes in ocean current patterns and their resultant effects. The EHSLR may also have enhanced volcanic activity, but no clear evidence of a causal link with submarine sliding on continental slopes and shelves can yet be demonstrated. The rise probably influenced rates and patterns of human migrations and cultural changes. It is concluded that the EHSLR was a major event of global significance, knowledge of which is relevant to an understanding of the impacts of global climate change in the future.     

Climatic controls on Holocene lake-level changes in Europe

Sensitivity experiments with a simple water-balance model were used to constrain the possible climatic causes of distinct Holocene patterns of lake-level variation in different regions of Europe. Lakes in S Sweden were low at 9 ka, high around 6.5 ka, low again around 4 ka and are high now. Lakes in Estonia show similar but weaker trends. Lakes in S France were highest around 9 ka, lowest around 4 ka, intermediate now. Lakes in Greece were also high around 9 ka but continued rising until 7.5 ka, then fell gradually from 5 ka with a brief high phase around 3 ka, and are low now. The model was forced with insolation anomalies deduced from orbital variations, temperature anomalies inferred from the pollen record and cloudiness anomalies derived from changes in the position of the subtropical anticyclone (inferred from reconstructed changes in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient), in order to evaluate the effects of resultant evaporation changes on catchment water balance. The resulting simulated changes in runoff (precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration) were slight, and frequently opposite to the observed trends. Larger changes in precipitation are plausible and are required to explain the data. The required precipitation increase in N Europe from 9 ka (low) to 6 ka (high) is suggested by GCM experiments to have been a consequence of interacting insolation and residual ice-sheet effects on the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The explanation of other observed changes, including the drying trend during the Holocene in S Europe, has not been provided by GCM experiments to date. Explanations may lie in changes in mesoscale circulation, sea-surface temperature patterns and the coupling between these phenomena that may not follow orbital changes in any simple way. Correspondence to: SP Harrison     

Diffusion of 40Ar in hornblende

Measured radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar loss from two compositionally contrasting hornblendes following isothermal-hydrothermal treatment have provided model diffusion coefficients in the temperature range of 750° C to 900° C. Eight experiments using a hornblende (77–600) with a Mg/(Mg +Fe) ratio of 0.72 yield a linear array on an Arrhenius plot with a slope corresponding to an activation energy of 66.1 kcal-mol^–1 and a frequency factor of 0.061 cm²-sec^–1, assuming spherical geometry for the mineral aggregate. Five experiments undertaken on a hornblende (M Mhb-1) with a Mg/(Mg+Fe) ratio of 0.36 show similar behavior to the Mgrich sample, suggesting that the diffusivity of Ar in hornblendes is not sensitive to the Mg/Fe ratio.These data are consistent with kinetic information obtained from a geological experiment using the thermal effect of a granitoid intrusion. Together these data yield an activation energy of 64.1±1.7 kcal-mol^–1 and a frequency factor of 0.024± _0.011 ^0.053 cm²-sec^–1. For a hornblende with an effective diffusion radius of 80 m, these diffusion parameters predict closure temperatures between 578° C and 490° C for cooling rates in the range 500 to 5° C-Ma^–1.     

Historical pollution variability from abandoned mine sites,Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area,New South Wales,Australia

Core and surface sediments from the Tonalli River, a tributary of the artificial lake, Lake Burragorang, in the Blue Mountains National Park, New South Wales, Australia, were studied to evaluate the spatio-temporal distribution of pollutants from the Yerranderie silver-lead-zinc mine site, abandoned in the late 1920s. A sediment core was collected in the mouth of the Tonalli River, at its junction with Lake Burragorang, and surface sediment samples were collected in the Tonalli River and its tributaries. The concentrations of Pb, As, Zn, Cu, Cd, Hg and Ag in the sediments were determined by ICP-MS and ICP-AES techniques. Temporal variability of metal concentrations was established through ²¹⁰Pb dating of the core sediments and compared with published historical records, rainfall records and bushfire data. Metal concentrations in core sediments showed an overall increase around the year 1950 as well as increases coincident with heavy rainfall. Spatially, metal concentrations were up to 400 times the guideline limit around mine sites but decreased rapidly with distance downstream of the mines.     

Low-Cost Apparatus for On-Site Monitoring of Methane in Ground Water

An upsurge in oil- and gas-well drilling in northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York has been accompanied by several incidents of contamination of ground water by methane. Determining which well is causing the contamination is extremely difficult if more than one gas or oil well is present in the area.
The fact that the solubility of methane decreases as the pressure on ground water decreases provides a quantitative basis for monitoring changes in the amount of methane in the ground water. Quantitative measurements of the volume of methane given off by ground water pumped from a well as the water enters atmospheric pressure permit detection of temporal changes in the gas content which are too subtle to be detected visually. These gas volume changes may, in some cases, be correlated with variations in the pressure of methane in the annulus of nearby individual gas/oil wells and thus may provide a means of pinpointing the gas/oil well that is causing the methane contamination.
The basic principle of the gas-volume monitoring apparatus (GVMA) described in this paper is that as a measured amount of ground water enters atmospheric pressure the gas which comes out of solution is trapped and measured. The GVMA can be constructed of materials costing less than $100 and requires no special skills to assemble or operate. In a recent study conducted in a western New York village, four homeowners were able to collect quantitative gas-volume data from their household water wells daily in about one-half hour. Unlike laboratory analyses for dissolved methane, there is no cost involved in monitoring with the GVMA beyond the initial instrument cost and operator time. Another advantage is that the data are available immediately.