Test application of Bayesian Programming: Adaptive water quality management under uncertainty

A new method, Bayesian Programming (BP), developed by Harrison [Harrison KW. Multi-stage decision-making under uncertainty and stochasticity: Bayesian Programming. Adv Water Resour, submitted for publication] is tested on a case study involving optimal adaptive management of a river basin. The case study considers anew the process of permitting pulp mills on the Athabasca River in Alberta, Canada. The problem has characteristics common to many environmental management problems. There is uncertainty in the water quality response to pollutant loadings that will not be completely resolved with monitoring and the resolution of this uncertainty is impeded by the stochastic behavior of the water quality system. A two-stage adaptive management process is optimized with BP. Based on monitoring data collected after implementation of the first-stage decision, the uncertainties are updated prior to the second decision stage using Bayesian analysis. The worth of this two-stage adaptive management approach to this problem and the worth of monitoring are evaluated. Conclusions are drawn on the general practicality of BP for adaptive management. Potential strategies are outlined for extending the BP approach to secure further benefits of adaptive management.     

Joint EUV/Radio Observations of a Solar Filament

In this paper we compare simultaneous extreme ultraviolet (EUV) line intensity and microwave observations of a filament on the disk. The EUV line intensities were observed by the CDS and SUMER instruments on board SOHO and the radio data by the Very Large Array and the Nobeyama radioheliograph. The main results of this study are the following: (1) The Lyman continuum absorption is responsible for the lower intensity observed above the filament in the EUV lines formed in the transition region (TR) at short wavelengths. In the TR lines at long wavelengths the filament is not visible. This indicates that the proper emission of the TR at the filament top is negligible. (2) The lower intensity of coronal lines and at radio wave lengths is due to the lack of coronal emission: the radio data supply the height of the prominence, while EUV coronal lines supply the missing hot matter emission measure (EM). (3) Our observations support a prominence model of cool threads embedded in the hot coronal plasma, with a sheath-like TR around them. From the missing EM we deduce the TR thickness and from the neutral hydrogen column density, derived from the Lyman continuum and Hei absorption, we estimate the hydrogen density in the cool threads.     

Present and historical climate variability in South West England

West Cornwall is the most south westerly part of mainland United Kingdom with a strong maritime climate. This paper analyses the earliest archived instrumental meteorological records collected in West Cornwall (SW England). Observations were obtained from the Met Office archive (Camborne 1957–2010; Culdrose 1985–2011), Trengwainton Garden (1940–2010), and from the Royal Cornwall Polytechnic Society, (data for Falmouth (1880–1952) and Helston (1843–1888)). Homogeneity tests were used (Levene and Brown-Forsythe tests) to exclude any trends not related to climate variability. The data exhibit trends in annual mean and maximum temperatures over the timescales analysed, and show a general temperature increase in the 20th and 21st century. Annual and seasonal temperature change was found to vary locally with strongly positive trends in autumn, spring and summer seasons. Trends in precipitation are positive only for the 19th century and only for one station. Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index gives negative results for precipitation data. However correlation with the NAO index is positive with temperature, especially in the winter season. Return period analysis shows a decrease in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the post-1975 period (Camborne and Trengwainton Garden stations). Climate change in the 20th century and future continued warming is likely to have major implications on biodiversity in this region.     

Exposed evaporite diapirs and minibasins above a canopy in central Sverdrup Basin,Axel Heiberg Island,Arctic Canada

Axel Heiberg Island (Arctic Archipelago, northern Nunavut, Canada) contains the thickest Mesozoic section in Sverdrup Basin (11 km). The ca. 370‐km‐long island is second only to Iran in its concentration of exposed evaporite diapirs. Forty‐six diapirs of Carboniferous evaporites and associated minibasins are excellently exposed on the island. Regional anticlines, which formed during Paleogene Eurekan orogeny, trend roughly north on a regular ca. 20‐km wavelength and probably detach on autochthonous Carboniferous Otto Fiord Formation evaporites comprising halite overlain by thick anhydrite. In contrast, a 60‐km‐wide area, known as the wall‐and‐basin structure (WABS) province, has bimodal fold trends and irregular (<10 km) wavelengths. Here, crooked, narrow diapirs of superficially gypsified anhydrite crop out in tight anticline cores, which are separated by wider synclinal minibasins. We interpret the WABS province to detach on a shallow, partly exposed canopy of coalesced allochthonous evaporite sheets. Surrounding strata record a salt‐tectonic history spanning the Late Triassic (Norian) to the Paleogene. Stratigraphic thinning against diapirs and spectacular angular unconformities indicate mild regional shortening in which diapiric roof strata were bulged up and flanking strata steepened. This bulging culminated in the Hauterivian, when diapiric evaporites broke out and coalesced to form a canopy. As the inferred canopy was buried, it yielded second‐generation diapirs, which rose between minibasins subsiding into the canopy. Consistent high level emplacement suggests that all exposed diapirs inside the WABS area rose from the canopy. In contrast, diapirs along the WABS margins were sourced in autochthonous salt as first‐generation diapirs. Apart from the large diapir‐flanking unconformities, Jurassic‐Cretaceous depositional evidence of salt tectonics also includes submarine debris flows and boulder conglomerates shed from at least three emergent diapirs. Extreme local relief, tectonic slide blocks, steep talus fans and subaerial debris flows suggest that many WABS diapirs continue to rise today. The Axel Heiberg canopy is one of only three known exposed evaporite canopies, each inferred or known at a different structural level: above the canopy (Axel Heiberg), through the canopy (Great Kavir) and beneath a possible canopy (Sivas).     

The Carnegie Curve

The Earth’s fair weather atmospheric electric field shows, in clean air, an average daily variation which follows universal time, globally independent of the measurement position. This single diurnal cycle variation (maximum around 19UT and minimum around 03UT) is widely known as the Carnegie curve, after the geophysical survey vessel of the Carnegie Institution of Washington on which the original measurement campaigns demonstrating the universal time variation were undertaken. The Carnegie curve’s enduring importance is in providing a reference variation against which atmospheric electricity measurements are still compared; it is believed to originate from regular daily variations in atmospheric electrification associated with the different global disturbed weather regions. Details of the instrumentation, measurement principles and data obtained on the Carnegie’s seventh and final cruise are reviewed here, also deriving new harmonic coefficients allowing calculation of the Carnegie curve for different seasons. The additional harmonic analysis now identifies changes in the phasing of the maximum and minimum in the Carnegie curve, which shows a systematic seasonal variation, linked to the solstices and equinoxes, respectively.     

Carbon capture and sequestration versus carbon capture utilisation and storage for enhanced oil recovery

There are 74 integrated carbon capture projects worldwide currently listed by the Global CCS Institute, including the few already running and those still at the identification, evaluation, definition or execution stage for operation by 2018. Significant funding programmes have recently been launched by the European Commission (NER300 in November 2011) and by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (CCS Commercialisation Programme in April 2012) for commercial demonstration projects leading to innovation across the CCS/CCUS technology chain to reduce energy system costs. In their calls for proposals, these programmes were open to both CCS and CCUS projects. However, there are significant technical and commercial differences between projects for enhanced oil recovery and those for permanent storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers or in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, the same way that there exist more complexities and limitations for offshore implementation. Such differences are accompanied by different levels of field verification of the various storage and utilisation concepts, with permanent sequestration having only a more recent history and smaller-scale implementation. In this scenario, the need for appropriate due diligence workflows and screening criteria to assess the technical viability and the deliverability of different CCS/CCUS projects remains crucial, vis-à-vis the high component costs, efficiency penalties, reservoir uncertainties and the many challenges related to full chain integration (from carbon dioxide capture to underground sequestration). Based on information in the public domain, this paper reviews the current status of offshore CCS/CCUS implementation worldwide and discusses screening criteria for use by governments, operators and investors alike.     

Observations of Rapid Velocity Variations in the Slow Solar Wind

The technique of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) is the observation of rapid fluctuations of the radio signal from an astronomical compact source as the signal passes through the ever-changing density of the solar wind. Cross-correlation of simultaneous observations of IPS from a single radio source, received at multiple sites of the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radio antenna network, is used to determine the velocity of the solar wind material passing over the lines of sight of the antennas. Calculated velocities reveal the slow solar wind to contain rapid velocity variations when viewed on a time-scale of several minutes. Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations of white-light intensity have been compared with EISCAT observations of IPS to identify common density structures that may relate to the rapid velocity variations in the slow solar wind. We have surveyed a one-year period, starting in April 2007, of the EISCAT IPS observing campaigns beginning shortly after the commencement of full science operations of the STEREO mission in a bid to identify common density structures in both EISCAT and STEREO HI datasets. We provide a detailed investigation and presentation of joint IPS/HI observations from two specific intervals on 23 April 2007 and 19 May 2007 for which the IPS P-Point (point of closest approach of the line of sight to the Sun) was between 72 and 87 solar radii out from the Sun’s centre. During the 23 April interval, a meso-scale (of the order of 10⁵ km or larger) transient structure was observed by HI-1A to pass over the IPS ray path near the P-Point; the observations of IPS showed a micro-scale structure (of the order of 10² km) within the meso-scale transient. Observations of IPS from the second interval, on 19 May, revealed similar micro-scale velocity changes, however, no transient structures were detected by the HIs during that period. We also pose some fundamental thoughts on the slow solar wind structure itself.     

Incorporating Parameter Variability in Rock Mechanics Analyses: Fuzzy Mathematics Applied to Underground Rock Spalling

Although fuzzy analysis has been widely developed, its use in rock mechanics and rock engineering is limited. Here, it has been used to evaluate the potential for underground rock spalling at the boundary of a circular excavation in terms of rock strength and in situ rock stress, given the uncertainty in both of these input parameters. Using standard techniques from fuzzy mathematics, we develop an expression for the fuzzy factor of safety, and extend this to form the crisp parameters Safety Certainty Value and its complement, the Failure Certainty Value. Plots of the Failure Certainty Value in terms of the in situ stress ratio and rock strength/stress ratio show the effect of uncertainty on the assessment of stability. From these plots, we illustrate how the relative importance of uncertainty in the input parameters can be assessed, with the associated ramifications for site investigation and subsequent engineering design.