青藏高原流动人口居留意愿及影响因素

流动人口是青藏高原人口增长的重要动力,其城镇居留意愿关乎青藏高原城镇化的可持续发展。利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,测算青藏高原流动人口城镇居留意愿,根据来源地是否在青藏高原地域范围内,划分近程和远程流动人口,解析近程和远程流动人口城镇居留意愿的分异特征,建立多层Logistic回归模型,探讨流动人口城镇居留意愿及其近远程分异的影响因素。主要发现如下：① 青藏高原流动人口总体城镇居留意愿不高,仅有约32%的流动人口打算在城镇地区长期居留;除拉萨、西宁和海西等少数地区外,多数地区该比例仅约为10%。② 近程流动人口城镇居留意愿明显高于远程流动人口,但近程流动人口在多数地区的居留意愿仍低于20%。③ 受教育程度、收入水平、城镇医疗保险、社会融合程度以及流入地的经济发展水平、自然条件等因素对流动人口城镇居留意愿具有显著正向影响。④ 近程和远程流动人口城镇居留意愿分异与流动原因、社会融合程度等方面的差异密切相关。最后,针对青藏高原的特殊性,提出差异化的流动人口高质量城镇化政策建议。     

双壳纲软体动物含碳量及年度碳储量估算——以河北昌黎黄金海岸国家级自然保护区海域为例

在2019年昌黎黄金海岸国家级自然保护区海域双壳纲软体动物调查的基础上,对该海域双壳纲软体动物含碳量进行了估算,同时分析了该保护区碳汇潜力与发展前景,以期为其他保护区海域碳储量估算提供参考依据.结果 表明,2019年昌黎自然保护区海域双壳纲软体动物含碳量约为391.79～ 414.54 t,等同于吸收了总量为1436....     

Interannual Thermocline Signals and E1 Nino-La Nina Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Ni?na) to a warm water state (El Ni?no) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980–2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Ni?no (or La Ni?na) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Ni?no and La Ni?na events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Ni?no event to a La Ni?na event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Ni?no or La Ni?na event at least one year in advance.     

基于改进引力模型的城市应急避难场所空间布局合理性评价

应急避难场所是人员疏散、救助和安置的重要载体,其空间布局合理与否直接影响到城市抵御灾害的能力。可达性和拥挤度作为居民点与应急避难场所相互作用的关键指标,建立其合理的评价方法,对城市应急避难场所均衡布局具有重要参考价值。该文引入人口规模影响因子、应急避难场所服务能力和极限距离三个参数改进引力模型,以兰州市城关区部分区域为例,在不同出行极限距离条件下,分析应急避难场所对居民点的吸引力,从应急避难场所的可达性和拥挤度两个方面评价城市应急避难场所空间分布合理性。研究结果表明：研究区应急避难场所空间分布不均衡,不能完全满足当前疏散人口的需求;出行极限距离较短时（500 m和1 000 m）,大部分区域可达性低,西南部、东北部的应急避难场所拥挤度差异显著;出行极限距离为2 000 m时,可达性表现为由东北向西南衰减的趋势,拥挤度反之,各应急避难场所拥挤度均低于0.4人/m²。改进的引力模型综合考虑距离的衰减、应急避难场所服务能力和居民点人口,能有效地测定应急避难场所可达性和拥挤度,可以更全面可靠地评价应急避难场所空间布局合理性。     

川东金刚矿区须家河组层序-古地理及聚煤特征

利用钻孔岩心、野外露头、测井等资料,对四川盆地东部金刚矿区上三叠统须家河组层序-古地理及聚煤特征进行研究。根据地层颜色突变面、河流下切谷冲刷面以及沉积相转换面3种典型层序界面,将研究区须家河组划分为4个三级层序,其中层序III对应须家河组四段和五段,层序IV对应须家河组六段和七段,以三级层序为作图单元,恢复了各层序的古地理格局,主要的古地理单元为曲流河和河流三角洲,物源为东南侧的江南古陆;层序IV的聚煤作用明显优于层序III,湖侵体系域更有利于成煤;层序III的煤层多发育在下三角洲平原分流间湾沉积中,层序IV的煤层主要发育于曲流河的岸后沼泽。     

秦岭伏牛山构造带的矿物岩石学特征与流变学分析

本文通过对伏牛山构造带岩石的矿物岩石学、石英重结晶型式、石英分维值和有限应变等特征分析研究,认为伏牛山构造带的变质-变形深受洛南-栾川断裂带的影响,其变化有明显的规律性,从断裂带往北岩石从糜棱岩依次过渡为片岩-片麻岩-花岗岩原岩.构造带内发育多种糜棱岩,岩石变形强烈,远离构造带岩石的变形逐渐变弱.从构造带往北,石英的重...     

Complex variable analysis for stress distribution of an underwater tunnel in an elastic half plane

When an underwater tunnel is excavated, the groundwater may flow into the tunnel. The seepage forces consequently induced can have important effects on the effective stresses around the tunnel. Moreover, the influences of the free surface of a shallow underwater tunnel should also be considered. In this research, an analytical solution is presented to calculate the seepage‐induced effective stresses around a shallow underwater tunnel in an elastic half plane. The solution uses the complex variable method and consists of conformally mapping the half plane with a hole onto a transformed circular ring. The coefficients of the various terms in the Laurent series expansions of the stress functions in the transformed region can be obtained from the boundary conditions. The total stress distribution around a shallow underwater tunnel can be calculated by the potentials in the half plane. The effective stress can be obtained by subtracting the pore pressure from the total stress. The analytical solution is validated by numerical simulations and can be used to perform both the short‐term and long‐term analyses. By using the proposed solution, it is found that the circumferential effective stresses around the tunnel increase greatly because of seepage, and they increase with the increase of water depth in both the undrained and drained conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

内蒙古赤峰大西营子金矿区赋矿火山岩年代学与岩石地球化学特征

大西营子金矿区位于内蒙古赤峰地区,金矿赋存在玛尼吐组火山岩中。对大西营子金矿区赋矿围岩进行了岩石学、锆石U-Pb年代学和岩石地球化学研究。矿区火山岩主要包括安山岩、粗安岩、粗面岩和火山碎屑岩。通过锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年,获得安山岩和粗安岩年龄分别为(157.8±6.2) Ma和(156.9±7.4) Ma,应代表其形成年龄。岩石地球化学数据显示该套火山岩具有相对富碱、富铝的特征,属于高钾钙碱性和碱性岩石系列。岩石富集轻稀土元素和大离子亲石元素(Th、U、Zr、Hf),亏损重稀土元素和Nb、Ta、Ti等高场强元素。这些特征显示岩浆来自被俯冲流体交代富集的岩石圈地幔,且经历了以单斜辉石为主的结晶分异过程。结合区域地质资料,认为在大西营子金矿区火山岩形成于造山后伸展环境,与蒙古—鄂霍茨克洋闭合作用有关。     

下古生界海相页岩TOC测井预测模型优选及应用——以川南长宁地区为例

有机碳含量(TOC)是页岩气资源评价与预测选区的关键指标之一,测井预测是实现单井TOC连续识别的重要手段,本次研究拟揭示各类预测方法在下古生界海相页岩中的预测效果。本次以川南长宁地区龙一段黑色页岩为对象,尝试采用多类预测方法(ΔLogR法及其改进方法、多元线性回归法与神经网络法)与不同的研究尺度(全段或分层)建立TOC测井预测模型,并对不同方法的预测效果进行深入探讨。研究表明,各方法预测效果差异较大,适用性各不相同。整体而言,多元线性回归法与BP神经网络法在研究区的预测效果均优于ΔLogR法及其改进方法。笔者等研究提出多元线性回归法对研究区TOC高值段的预测效果更佳,而神经网络法对TOC低值段的预测精度更高。本次研究根据龙一段各亚段有机质分布特征与测井响应特征的差异,提出通过“精细分层与最优方法匹配”的方式,因地制宜地选择相应的方法进行TOC测井预测。针对龙一₁^a-c与龙一₁^d-龙一₂,分别采用多元线性回归法与BP神经网络法进行分层精细建模,并获得了最佳的预测效果,不仅预测精度...     

岩溶管道涌水注浆封堵技术研究

富水岩溶区基坑开挖过程中,岩溶管道涌水突泥严重影响基坑正常施工,文章依据贵阳地铁2号线延安路站深基坑岩溶涌水处治工程实例,对岩溶管道涌水注浆封堵技术进行了研究。针对涌水处治过程中出现的岩溶管道涌水情况,在充分了解岩溶涌水区域水文地质特征的基础上,采用探注结合方式,通过选择适当的注浆材料和配套工艺对涌水实现封堵。在实际的注浆工作中,总结了前期注浆的失败经验,对地下水的来源和通道进行深入分析,在此基础上及时调整注浆设计和实施方案,最终通过钻进辅助注浆孔,寻找岩溶地下水联系通道的方式进行双液注浆实现了成功的堵水。注浆过程控制及方案调整对类似基坑工程的岩溶管道涌水封堵具有借鉴意义。