Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of urban heat island variation in Beijing city and surrounding areas and impact factors based on remote sensing satellite data

Based on the land surface temperature (LST), the land cover classification map,vegetation coverage, and surface evapotranspiration derived from EOS-MODIS satellite data, and by the use of GIS spatial analytic technique and multivariate statistical analysis method, the urban heat island (UHI) spatial distribution of the diurnal and seasonal variabilities and its driving forces are studied in Beijing city and surrounding areas in 2001. The relationships among UHI distribution and landcover categories, topographic factor, vegetation greenness, and surface evapotranspiration are analyzed. The results indicate that: (i) The significant UHI occur in Beijing city areas in the four seasons due to high heat capacity and multi-reflection of compression building, as well as with special topographic features of its three sides surrounded by mountains,especially in the summer. The UHI spatial distribution is corresponding with the urban geometry structure profile. The LST difference is approximately 4-6℃ between Beijing city and suburb areas, comparatively is 8- 10℃ between Beijing city area and outer suburb area in northwestern regions. (ii) The UHI distribution and intensity in daytime are different from nighttime in Beijing city area, the nighttime UHI is obvious. However, in the daytime, the significant UHI mainly appears in the summer, the autumn takes second place, and the UHI in the winter and the spring seem not obvious. The surface evapotranspiration in suburb areas is larger than that in urban areas in the summer, and high latent heat exchange is evident, which leads to LST difference between city area and suburb area. (iii) The reflection of surface landcover categories is sensitive to the UHI, the correlation between vegetation greenness and UHI shows obviously negative.The scatterplot shows that there is the negative correlation between NDVI and LST (R2 = 0.6481).The results demonstrate that the vegetation greenness is an important factor for reducing the UHI,and large-scale construction of greenbelts can considerably reduce the UHI effect.     

山东泰安朱家庄自然硫矿床地质概要

山东省泰安朱家庄自然硫矿床,赋存于鲁西断隆古近纪汶东陆相盆地。自然硫矿层在汶口组二段上亚段,泥质灰岩-含泥灰岩-含云灰岩-石膏岩韵律层中的白云岩-石膏岩层段发育。自然硫以胶态、晶态、土态3种形态产出,可划分为顺层型、准顺层型、斑杂型及不顺层型4大类10余种矿石类型。从矿区去膏化作用普遍、自然硫与石膏-硬石膏分别富集轻-重同位素的特征、油气显示明显及地下水主要径流方向自然硫矿化最强等各种证据,表明该矿属生物后生成因的矿床。     

电子图档的高效管理

通过对前期CAD图档管理系统失败原因进行分析,明确了系统管理的目标,并与软件供应商合作,解决了实施中遇到的问题。     

落实政府工作强化行业凝聚力--第一小组小结汇报

昨天下午大家集中讨论了吴司长的讲话,交流了各地勘察设计质量管理、施工图审查及设计体制改革方面的经验,下面我把本组的讨论情况向大会汇报一下：     

Gas accumulation from oil cracking in the eastern Tarim Basin: A case study of the YN2 gas field

Oil and gas exploration in eastern Tarim Basin, NW China has been successful in recent years, with several commercial gas accumulations being discovered in a thermally mature to over-mature region. The Yingnan2 (YN2) gas field, situated in the Yingnan structure of the Yingjisu Depression, produces gases that are relatively enriched in nitrogen and C₂₊ alkanes. The δ¹³C₁ (−38.6‰ to −36.2‰) and δ¹³C₂ values (−30.9‰ to −34.7‰) of these gases are characteristic of marine sourced gases with relatively high maturity levels. The distributions of biomarkers in the associated condensates suggest close affinities with the Cambrian–Lower Ordovician source rocks which, in the Yingjisu Sag, are currently over-mature (with 3–4%Ro). Burial and thermal maturity modeling results indicate that paleo-temperatures of the Cambrian–Lower Ordovician source rocks had increased from 90 to 210 °C during the late Caledonian orogeny (458–438 Ma), due to rapid subsidence and sediment loading. By the end of Ordovician, hydrocarbon potential in these source rocks had been largely exhausted. The homogenization temperatures of hydrocarbon fluid inclusions identified from the Jurassic reservoirs of the YN2 gas field suggest a hydrocarbon emplacement time as recent as about 10 Ma, when the maturity levels of Middle–Lower Jurassic source rocks in the study area were too low (<0.7%Ro) to form a large quantity of oil and gas. The presence of abundant diamondoid hydrocarbons in the associated condensates and the relatively heavy isotopic values of the oils indicate that the gases were derived from thermal cracking of early-formed oils. Estimation from the stable carbon isotope ratios of gaseous alkanes suggests that the gases may have been formed at temperatures well above 190 °C. Thus, the oil and gas accumulation history in the study area can be reconstructed as follows: (1) during the late Caledonian orogeny, the Cambrian–Lower Ordovician marine source rocks had gone through the peak oil, wet gas and dry gas generation stages, with the generated oil and gas migrating upwards along faults and fractures to form early oil and gas accumulations in the Middle–Upper Ordovician and Silurian sandstone reservoirs; (2) since the late Yanshanian orogeny, the early oil accumulations have been buried deeper and oil has undergone thermal cracking to form gas; (3) during the late Himalayan orogeny, the seals for the deep reservoirs were breached; and the gas and condensates migrated upward and eventually accumulating in the relatively shallow Jurassic reservoirs.     

Correlation between magnetic susceptibility and heavy metals in urban topsoil: a case study from the city of Xuzhou, China

Anthropogenic influence, mainly due to urban and industrial activities and traffic exhaust, may affect urban topsoil via atmospheric contamination and solid waste. Magnetic susceptibility measurements were conducted on 21 urban topsoil samples from the city of Xuzhou, China. High intensities of magnetic susceptibility were detected in the majority of the samples. SEM analysis shows that magnetic minerals are in the form of spherules and mainly due to anthropogenic inputs. The heavy metals Pb, Cu, Zn, Se, Sc, Mo, Fe, and Bi show strong correlations with magnetic susceptibility, and Ag, Ba, Cd, Ni, Cr, Sb, and Sn, on the other hand, show a weak correlation with magnetic susceptibility. Whereas, of these metals studied, only Hg has no significant correlation with the susceptibility. The Tomlinson pollution load index (PLI) also shows significant correlation with the susceptibility (χ). The present study shows that magnetic susceptibility is a fast, inexpensive, and non-destructive method for the detection and mapping of contaminated soils.     

Analysis on Bearing Capacity of Tunnel-Type Anchorage of a Long-Span Suspension Bridge

INTRODUCTION Tunnel typeanchoragehasobviousadvantages inbearingcapacityversusinvestment(LiuandHu,1996).However,itisrarelyusedinapracticalpro jectbecauseofitsrequirementofgoodrockcondi tions.Siduhebridge(Fig.1),whichliesintheBa dongmountainsinthewestplatea…     

黄土区人类活动影响下的 产汇流模拟研究

日益频繁的人类活动改变了流域下垫面条件,对流域产汇流产生很大的影响。本文以黄河中游典型支流岔巴沟为研究区域,提出利用基于DEM的分布式水文模拟技术,探讨流域人类活动过程中的产汇流模拟,避免了经验公式的概化和由此引起的局限。模拟的结果证实了该方法的可行性。采用网格滞蓄的方法可以在子网格上体现人类活动引起的下垫面的变化及其对产汇流的影响,反映各个时期的产汇流条件,对降雨做出合理响应。     

浙江磐安蕨类植物资源及其开发利用

调查统计，磐安共有蕨类植物112种，隶属于60属、34科。地理成分分析表明，种的地理成分以东亚分布，特别是中国一日本分布为主，区系显示出较明显的亚热带一暖温带过渡的特征。同时从水平分布、垂直分布和生态分布三种分布型分析了磐安蕨类植物资源的分布规律，并根据其用途，划分为药用植物资源、食用植物资源、观赏植物资源等。在以上研究的基础上，提出了合理开发利用磐安蕨类植物资源的一些建议。