Reliability with respect to settlement limit-states of shallow foundations on linearly-deformable subsoil

A step by step procedure for applying the response surface and SORM methods in estimating the reliability index associated with exceeding a certain allowable settlement level by a shallow foundation is presented in this paper. Two random variables, the Young modulus and Poisson's ratio, of lognormal and beta distribution respectively, in a single soil layer are taken into account. A linearly-deformable model of soil is assumed which is most frequently used in engineering practice when the serviceability limit state is considered. The main problem encountered in using the response surface methodology was the existence of false design points that prevented coordinate calculations of the real ones. Two procedures were employed. The first one consisted of widening the area covered by the response surface (polynomial of the second degree) with an additional “oedometric” term. Inserting the oedometric term improves the quality of the fitting and enables one to extend the range of approximation. The latter added a barrier to prevent the procedure from moving into the false design point region. Moreover, the paper presents the effect of random variation of the Young modulus E and Poisson's ratio ν as well as their mutual correlation, on the reliability index associated with exceeding the assumed level of a shallow foundation settlement.     

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.     

Electron accepting capacity of dissolved organic matter as determined by reaction with metallic zinc

Information about the chemical electron accepting capacity (EAC) of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is scarce owing to a lack of applicable methods. We quantified the electron transfer from metallic Zn to natural DOM in batch experiments at DOC concentrations of 10–100 mg-C L^− 1 and related it to spectroscopic information obtained from UV-, synchronous fluorescence, and FTIR- spectroscopy. The electron donating capacity of DOM and pre-reduced DOM was investigated using Fe(CN)₆³⁻ as electron acceptor. Presence of DOM resulted in release of dissolved Zn, consumption of protons, and slower release of hydrogen compared to reaction of metallic Zn with water at pH 6.5. Comparison with reaction stoichiometry confirmed that DOM accepted electrons from metallic Zn. The release of dissolved Zn was dependent on pH, DOC concentration, ionic strength, and organic matter properties. The reaction appeared to be completed within about 24 h and was characterized by pseudo first order kinetics with rate constants of 0.5 to 0.8 h^− 1. EAC per mass unit of carbon ranged from 0.22 mmol g^− 1 C to 12.6 mmol g^− 1 C. Depending on the DOM, a calculated 28–127% of the electrons transferred from metallic Zn to DOM could be subsequently donated to Fe(CN)₆³⁻. EAC decreased with DOC concentration, and increased with aromaticity, carboxyl, and phenolic content of the DOM. The results indicate that an operationally defined EAC of natural DOM can be quantified by reaction with metallic Zn and that DOM properties control the electron transfer. Shortcomings of the method are the coagulation and precipitation of DOM during the experiment and the production of hydrogen and dissolved Zn by reaction of metallic Zn with water, which may influence the determined EAC.     

Validation of components of the water cycle in the ECHAM4 general circulation model based on the Newtonian relaxation technique: a case study of an intense winter cyclone

The representation of a simulated synoptic-scale weather system is compared with observations. To force the model to the observed state, the so-called Newtonian relaxation technique (nudging) is applied to relax vorticity, divergence, temperature, and the logarithm of surface pressure to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis fields. The development of an extraordinary strong cyclone along the East Coast of the USA during 12–14 March 1993 was chosen as the case study. The synoptic-scale features were well represented in the model simulation. However, systematic differences to observations of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) occurred. The model underestimated clouds in lower and middle levels of the troposphere. Low-level clouds were mainly underestimated behind the cold front of the developing cyclone, while the underestimation of mid-level clouds seems to be a more general feature. The reason for the latter is the fact that the relative humidity has to exceed a critical threshold before clouds can develop. In contrast, thin upper-level cirrus clouds in pre-frontal regions were systematically overestimated by the model. Therefore, we investigated the effects of changed physical parameterizations with two sensitivity studies. In the PCI experiment, the standard cloud scheme operated in ECHAM4 was replaced by a more sophisticated one which defines separate prognostic equations for cloud liquid water and cloud ice. The second experiment, RHCRIT, changed the profile of the critical relative humidity threshold for the development of clouds in the standard scheme. Both experiments showed positive changes in the representation of clouds during the development of the cyclone as compared to the ISCCP. PCI clearly reduced the upper-level cloud amounts by intensifying the precipitation flux in the middle troposphere. The changed condensation threshold in the RHCRIT experiment led to a sharper represented cold front and a better represented cloudiness on its rear side as compared to the PCI and the CONTROL simulations.     

Cassini spectra and photometry 0.25-5.1 μm of the small inner satellites of Saturn

The nominal tour of the Cassini mission enabled the first spectra and solar phase curves of the small inner satellites of Saturn. We present spectra from the Visual Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) and the Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) that span the 0.25-5.1 μm spectral range. The composition of Atlas, Pandora, Janus, Epimetheus, Calypso, and Telesto is primarily water ice, with a small amount (∼5%) of contaminant, which most likely consists of hydrocarbons. The optical properties of the “shepherd” satellites and the coorbitals are tied to the A-ring, while those of the Tethys Lagrangians are tied to the E-ring of Saturn. The color of the satellites becomes progressively bluer with distance from Saturn, presumably from the increased influence of the E-ring; Telesto is as blue as Enceladus. Janus and Epimetheus have very similar spectra, although the latter appears to have a thicker coating of ring material. For at least four of the satellites, we find evidence for the spectral line at 0.68 μm that Vilas et al. [Vilas, F., Larsen, S.M., Stockstill, K.R., Gaffley, M.J., 1996. Icarus 124, 262-267] attributed to hydrated iron minerals on Iapetus and Hyperion. However, it is difficult to produce a spectral mixing model that includes this component. We find no evidence for CO₂ on any of the small satellites. There was a sufficient excursion in solar phase angle to create solar phase curves for Janus and Telesto. They bear a close similarity to the solar phase curves of the medium-sized inner icy satellites. Preliminary spectral modeling suggests that the contaminant on these bodies is not the same as the exogenously placed low-albedo material on Iapetus, but is rather a native material. The lack of CO₂ on the small inner satellites also suggests that their low-albedo material is distinct from that on Iapetus, Phoebe, and Hyperion.     

Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure

We use a coupled climate–carbon cycle model of intermediate complexity to investigate scenarios of stratospheric sulfur injections as a measure to compensate for CO₂-induced global warming. The baseline scenario includes the burning of 5,000 GtC of fossil fuels. A full compensation of CO₂-induced warming requires a load of about 13 MtS in the stratosphere at the peak of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Keeping global warming below 2°C reduces this load to 9 MtS. Compensation of CO₂ forcing by stratospheric aerosols leads to a global reduction in precipitation, warmer winters in the high northern latitudes and cooler summers over northern hemisphere landmasses. The average surface ocean pH decreases by 0.7, reducing the calcifying ability of marine organisms. Because of the millennial persistence of the fossil fuel CO₂ in the atmosphere, high levels of stratospheric aerosol loading would have to continue for thousands of years until CO₂ was removed from the atmosphere. A termination of stratospheric aerosol loading results in abrupt global warming of up to 5°C within several decades, a vulnerability of the Earth system to technological failure.     

Kahoolawe Island,Hawaii: The role of an ‘inaccessible’ shield volcano in the petrology of the Hawaiian islands and plume

Kahoolawe volcano (～10×17 km) forms one of the eight major Hawaiian islands. Access for geologic sampling has long been restricted due to military and preservation policies. However, limited visits to Kahoolawe in the 1980s yielded >200 samples, many of which have since been used to study the volcano within the framework of Hawaiian shield and mantle source geochemistry, petrology, mineralogy, and igneous processes.Kahoolawe is a tholeiitic shield with tholeiitic caldera-filling lavas, and at least seven postshield vents that erupted tholeiitic and (sparse) alkalic lavas. On smaller scales are a gabbro intrusion and ultramafic and gabbroic xenoliths in some postshield lavas. There is no evidence for rejuvenated volcanism. In its structural setting, Kahoolawe lies along the “Loa” trend of Hawaiian shields.Major element compositions of shield and caldera-filling lavas are similar and cluster at ～6–7 wt% MgO, range from ～5.5 to 16 wt% MgO, and include ～9 wt% MgO examples that can be modeled as parental to the evolved lavas. For example, least squares mass balancing demonstrates that from ～15% to 30% crystallization of olivine (±orthopyroxene), clinopyroxene, and plagioclase accounts for the ～5.5–6 wt% MgO range of tholeiitic lavas. Greater differentiation occurred in the gabbro (diabasic) intrusive body as a segregation vein with ～2.9 wt% MgO, and extreme differentiation produced local, small-volume rhyolitic melts that segregated into lava vesicles. Postshield lavas are mainly tholeiitic, have ～5–7 wt% MgO, and overlap shield compositions. Some are alkalic, as low as ～3.9 wt% MgO (hawaiite), and can be modeled as liquids after a ～9 wt% MgO alkalic magma crystallized ～30% olivine, clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and magnetite.Important aspects of Sr, Nd, Hf, and Pb isotopic ratios in Kahoolawe shield and caldera-filling lavas are slightly higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr than in Koolau shield lavas (Oahu island; Makapuu-stage; e.g., Koolau mantle ‘endmember’) when compared at a given ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (e.g., ～0.7042 at 0.5128), ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb largely at the low end of the range for Hawaiian shields (e.g., ～18), and ε_Hf generally comparable to the values of other Hawaiian shields and ocean islands (e.g., ε_Hf 8 at ε_Nd 4). The isotopic ratios overall suggest small-scale source heterogeneity, considering the island size, and that Kahoolawe shield and caldera lavas were derived from a Hawaiian plume source containing recycled oceanic crust of gabbro and sediments. Based on certain geochemical indicators, however, such as Ce/Sr and La/Nb vs. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, the source contained slightly less gabbro component than other shield sources (e.g., Koolau). Isotopic data for Kahoolawe postshield lavas are scarce, but those available generally overlap the shield data. However, ratios among certain alteration-resistant incompatible trace elements (e.g., Zr/Nb) discriminate some postshield alkalic from shield lavas. But because the different ratios for those postshield lavas can be explained by smaller partial-melting percentages of the shield source and by differentiation, neither isotopes nor trace elements identify postshield magmas as originating in a source unlike that for the shield lavas.     

The Palomar‐Quest digital synoptic sky survey

We describe briefly the Palomar‐Quest (PQ) digital synoptic sky survey, including its parameters, data processing, status, and plans. Exploration of the time domain is now the central scientific and technological focus of the survey. To this end, we have developed a real‐time pipeline for detection of transient sources.We describe some of the early results, and lessons learned which may be useful for other, similar projects, and time‐domain astronomy in general. Finally, we discuss some issues and challenges posed by the real‐time analysis and scientific exploitation of massive data streams from modern synoptic sky surveys. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Numerical simulation of the effect of interface friction of a bounding structure on shear deformation in a granular soil

Recently, the shear behavior of a cohesionless granular strip that is in contact with a very rough surface of a moving bounding structure has been numerically investigated by several authors by using a micropolar hypoplastic continuum model. It was shown that the micropolar boundary conditions assumed along the interface have a strong influence on the deformations within the granular layer. In previous investigations, only interface friction angles for very rough bounding structures were assumed. In contrast, the focus of the present paper is on the influence of the interface roughness on the deformation behavior of the granular strip when the interface friction angle is lower than the peak friction angle of the granular material. In addition to the interface friction angle, particular attention is also paid to the influence of the mean grain diameter, the solid hardness, the initial void ratio, and the vertical stress on the maximum horizontal shear displacement within the granular layer before sliding is started. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Web 2.0 collaborations address uncertainty in climate reconstructions of the past millennium

Reducing uncertainty in global temperature reconstructions of the past millennium remains the key issue in applying this record to society’s pressing climate change problem. Reconstructions are collaborative, built on the research of hundreds of scientists who apply their diverse scientific expertise and field and laboratory skill to create the individual proxy reconstructions that underlie the multi-proxy, global average temperature time series. Web 2.0 features have enabled collaborative efforts that improve the characterization of uncertainty. Raw data shared via a repository (the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology) enable new reconstructions from the collection of user-generated data. Standards propagated by expert communities facilitate quality control and interoperability. Open access to data and computer code promote transparency and make the science accessible to a broader audience. Blogs, wikis, and listservs share background information and highlight contentious as well as unique aspects of paleo science. A novel approach now underway, titled the Paleoclimate Reconstruction Challenge, and based on the sharing of simulated data (pseudo-proxies) and reconstruction results, seeks to facilitate method development, further reducing uncertainty. Broadly-useful aspects of the Challenge may find application in other fields.