Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are, on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the stated objectives of certain industrialized countries.     

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.     

Calibrating a Salt Water Intrusion Model with Time‐Domain Electromagnetic Data

Salt water intrusion models are commonly used to support groundwater resource management in coastal aquifers. Concentration data used for model calibration are often sparse and limited in spatial extent. With airborne and ground‐based electromagnetic surveys, electrical resistivity models can be obtained to provide high‐resolution three‐dimensional models of subsurface resistivity variations that can be related to geology and salt concentrations on a regional scale. Several previous studies have calibrated salt water intrusion models with geophysical data, but are typically limited to the use of the inverted electrical resistivity models without considering the measured geophysical data directly. This induces a number of errors related to inconsistent scales between the geophysical and hydrologic models and the applied regularization constraints in the geophysical inversion. To overcome these errors, we perform a coupled hydrogeophysical inversion (CHI) in which we use a salt water intrusion model to interpret the geophysical data and guide the geophysical inversion. We refer to this methodology as a Coupled Hydrogeophysical Inversion‐State (CHI‐S), in which simulated salt concentrations are transformed to an electrical resistivity model, after which a geophysical forward response is calculated and compared with the measured geophysical data. This approach was applied for a field site in Santa Cruz County, California, where a time‐domain electromagnetic (TDEM) dataset was collected. For this location, a simple two‐dimensional cross‐sectional salt water intrusion model was developed, for which we estimated five uniform aquifer properties, incorporating the porosity that was also part of the employed petrophysical relationship. In addition, one geophysical parameter was estimated. The six parameters could be resolved well by fitting more than 300 apparent resistivities that were comprised by the TDEM dataset. Except for three sounding locations, all the TDEM data could be fitted close to a root‐mean‐square error of 1. Possible explanations for the poor fit of these soundings are the assumption of spatial uniformity, fixed boundary conditions and the neglecting of 3D effects in the groundwater model and the TDEM forward responses.     

Aeolian dynamics over a coastal foredune,Prince Edward Island,Canada

Near‐surface airflow over a morphologically simple, vegetated, 8 m high foredune with a small wave‐cut scarp was measured for onshore to oblique‐onshore conditions during a low‐moderate (5–6 m s^‐1 ) wind event and a high velocity (11–18 m s^‐1) sand‐transporting gale event. Flow across the foredune was characterized by significant flow compression and acceleration up and across the foredune during both events. During the gale, a pronounced jet (speed bulge) developed at the foredune crest, which increased in magnitude with increasing wind speed. The vertical (W) velocity component of the 3D flow field was positive (upwards) across the stoss slope under low wind conditions but negative (downwards) during gale wind conditions, with upslope acceleration. During the low velocity event, there was speed‐down within the vegetation canopy, as would be expected for a porous roughness cover. During the strong wind event there was speed‐up in the lower portion of the vegetation canopy, and this was found up the entire stoss slope. Sediment transport during the gale force event was substantial across the beach and foredune despite the moderate vegetation cover and minimum fetch. Aeolian suspension was evident in the lee of the dune crest. The observations presented herein show that strong storm winds are an effective mechanism for translating sediment landwards across a high vegetated foredune, contributing sediment to the stoss slope, crest and leeward slopes of the foredune and backing dunes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

Abstract

The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime, which could be strongly modified by climate change. The present study, part of a project funded by the European Commission, analyses the hydrological situation in six benchmark basins covering areas of between 1800 and 8400 km², essentially located in Tajikistan, with a variety of topographical situations, precipitation amounts and glacierized areas. Four types of parameter are discussed: temperature, glaciation, snow cover and river flows. The study is based mainly on a long-time series that ended in the 1990s (with the collapse of the Soviet Union) and on field observations and data collection. In addition, a short, more recent period (May 2000 to May 2002) was examined to better understand the role of snow cover, using scarce monitored data and satellite information. The results confirm the overall homogeneous trend of temperature increase in the mountain range and its impacts on the surface water regime. Concerning the snow cover, significant differences are noted in the location, elevation, orientation and morphology of snow cover in the respective basins. The changes in the river flow regime are regulated by the combination of the snow cover dynamics and the increasing trend of the air temperature.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Assessing aeolian beach‐surface dynamics using a remote sensing approach

A remote sensing technique for assessing beach surface moisture was used to provide insight into beach‐surface evolution during an aeolian event. An experiment was carried out on 21 October 2007 at Greenwich Dunes, Prince Edward Island National Park, Canada, during which cameras were mounted on a mast on the foredune crest at a height of about 14 m above the beach. Maps of beach surface moisture were created based on a calibrated relationship between surface brightness from the photographs and surface moisture content measured in situ at points spaced every 2.5 m along a transect using a Delta‐T moisture probe. A time sequence of maps of surface moisture content captured beach surface evolution through the transport event at a spatial and temporal resolution that would be difficult to achieve with other sampling techniques such as impedance probes. Erosion of the foreshore and berm crest resulted in an increase in surface moisture content in these areas as the wetter underlying sediments were exposed. Flow expansion downwind of the berm crest led to sand deposition and a consequent decrease in surface moisture content. Remote sensing systems such as the one presented here allow observations of the combined evolution of beach surface moisture, shoreline position, and fetch distances during short‐term experiments and hence provide a comprehensive rendering of sediment erosion and transport processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Arsenic distribution in the dissolved, colloidal and particulate size fraction of experimental solutions rich in dissolved organic matter and ferric iron

Due to the widespread contamination of groundwater resources with arsenic (As), controls on As mobility have to be identified. In this study we focused on the distribution of As in the dissolved, colloidal and particulate size fraction of experimental solutions rich in ferric iron, dissolved organic matter (DOM) and As(V). Size fractions between <5 kDa and >0.2 μm were separated by filtration and their elemental composition was analyzed. A steady-state particle size distribution with stable element concentration in the different size classes was attained within 24 h. The presence of DOM partly inhibited the formation of large Fe-(oxy)hydroxide aggregates, thus stabilized Fe in complexed and colloidal form, when initially adjusted molar Fe/C ratios in solution were <0.1. Dissolved As concentrations and the quantity of As bound to colloids (<0.2 μm) increased in the presence of DOM as well. At intermediate Fe/C ratios of 0.02-0.1, a strong correlation between As and Fe concentration occurred in all size fractions (R² = 0.989). At Fe/C ratios <0.02, As was mainly present in the dissolved size fraction. These observations indicate that As mobility increased in the presence of DOM due to (I) competition between As and organic molecules for sorption sites on Fe particles; and (II) due to a higher amount of As bound to more abundant Fe colloids or complexes <0.2 μm in size. The amount of As contained in the colloidal size fractions also depended strongly on the initial size of the humic substance, which was larger for purified humic acids than for natural river or soil porewater samples. Arsenic in the particle size fraction >0.2 μm additionally decreased in the order of pH 4 ? 6 > 8. The presence of DOM likely increases the mobility of As in iron rich waters undergoing oxidation, a finding that has to be considered in the investigation of organic-rich terrestrial and aquatic environments.     

A simple hypoplastic constitutive model for sand

The paper presents a hypoplastic constitutive model for the three-dimensional non-linear stress–strain and dilatant volume change behaviour of sand. The model is developed without recourse to the concept in elastoplasticity theory such as yield surface, plastic potential and decomposition into elastic and plastic parts. Benefited from the non-linear tensorial functions available from the representation theorem the model possesses simple mathematical formulation and contains only four material parameters, which can be easily identified with triaxial compression tests. Comparison of the predictions with the experimental results shows that the model is capable of capturing the salient behaviour of sand under monotonic loading and is applicable to both drained and undrained conditions.     

GHOST – A Novel Airborne Gas Chromatograph for In Situ Measurements of Long-Lived Tracers in the Lower Stratosphere: Method and Applications

A novel fully-automated airborne gas chromatograph for in situmeasurements of long-lived stratospheric tracers hasbeen developed, combining the high selectivity of a megabore PLOTcapillary column with recently developed sampling and separationtechniques. The Gas cHromatograph for theObservation of Stratospheric Tracers (GHOST)has been successfully operated during three STREAM campaigns(Stratosphere TRoposphere Experiment byAirborne Measurement) onboard a Cessna Citation IIaircraft in two different modes: Either N₂O andCF₂Cl₂(CFC-12) or CFC-12 and CFCl₃ (CFC-11) have been measuredsimultaneously, with a time resolution of 2 min for both modes.Under flight conditions the instrument precision (1) forthese species is better than 0.9%, and the accuracy(1) is better than 2.0% of the tropospheric values ofall measured compounds. The detection limits (3) arebelow 28 ppb for N₂O, 14 ppt for CFC-12, and 8 ppt forCFC-11, respectively, i.e., well below 10 % of the troposphericvalues of all measured compounds. Post-mission optimization of thechromatographic separation showed a possible enhancement of thetime resolution by up to a factor of 2, associated with acomparable increase in precision and detection limit. As test ofactual performance of GHOST results from an in-flight N₂Ointercomparison with a tunable diode laser absorptionspectrometer (TDLAS) are presented. They yield an excellentagreement between both instruments. Furthermore, on the basis ofthe hitherto most extensive set of upper tropospheric and lowerstratospheric data, the relative stratospheric N₂2O lifetime isre-assessed. When referenced to the WMO reference CFC-11 lifetimeof 45 ± 7 years an N₂O lifetime of 91 ± 15 yearsis derived, a value substantially smaller than the WMO referencelifetime of 120 years. Moreover, this value implies astratospheric N₂O sink strength of 16.3 ± 2.7 Tg (N)yr^–1 which is 30% larger than previous estimates.