Probability distributions for carbon emissions and atmospheric response

Probability distributions for carbon burning, atmospheric CO₂, and global average temperature are produced by time series calibration of models of utility optimization and carbon and heat balance using log-linear production functions. Population growth is used to calibrate a logistically evolving index of development that influences production efficiency. Energy production efficiency also includes a coefficient that decreases linearly with decreasing carbon intensity of energy production. This carbon intensity is a piecewise linear function of fossil carbon depletion. That function is calibrated against historical data and extrapolated by sampling a set of hypotheses about the impact on the carbon intensity of energy production of depleting fluid fossil fuel resources and increasing cumulative carbon emissions. Atmospheric carbon balance is determined by a first order differential equation with carbon use rates and cumulative carbon use as drivers. Atmospheric CO₂ is a driver in a similar heat balance. Periodic corrections are included where required to make residuals between data and model results indistinguishable from independently and identically distributed normal distributions according to statistical tests on finite Fourier power spectrum amplitudes and nearest neighbor correlations. Asymptotic approach to a sustainable non-fossil energy production is followed for a global disaggregation into a tropical/developing and temperate/more-developed region. The increase in the uncertainty of global average temperature increases nearly quadratically with the increase in the temperature from the present through the next two centuries.     

Microgravity experiments on the collisional behavior of saturnian ring particles

In this paper we present results of two novel experimental methods to investigate the collisional behavior of individual macroscopic icy bodies. The experiments reported here were conducted in the microgravity environments of parabolic flights and the Bremen drop tower facility. Using a cryogenic parabolic-flight setup, we were able to capture 41 near-central collisions of 1.5-cm-sized ice spheres at relative velocities between 6 and . The analysis of the image sequences provides a uniform distribution of coefficients of restitution with a mean value of and values ranging from ε=0.06 to 0.84. Additionally, we designed a prototype drop-tower experiment for collisions within an ensemble of up to one hundred cm-sized projectiles and performed the first experiments with solid glass beads. We were able to statistically analyze the development of the kinetic energy of the entire system, which can be well explained by assuming a granular ‘fluid’ following Haff’s law with a constant coefficient of restitution of ε=0.64. We could also show that the setup is suitable for studying collisions at velocities of <5 mm s⁻¹ appropriate for collisions between particles in Saturn’s dense main rings.     

Distribution, geometry, age and origin of overdeepened valleys and basins in the Alps and their foreland

Overdeepened valleys and basins are commonly found below the present landscape surface in areas that were affected by Quaternary glaciations. Overdeepened troughs and their sedimentary fillings are important in applied geology, for example, for geotechnics of deep foundations and tunnelling, groundwater resource management, and radioactive waste disposal. This publication is an overview of the areal distribution and the geometry of overdeepened troughs in the Alps and their foreland, and summarises the present knowledge of the age and potential processes that may have caused deep erosion. It is shown that overdeepened features within the Alps concur mainly with tectonic structures and/or weak lithologies as well as with Pleistocene ice confluence and partly also diffluence situations. In the foreland, overdeepening is found as elongated buried valleys, mainly oriented in the direction of former ice flow, and glacially scoured basins in the ablation area of glaciers. Some buried deeply incised valleys were generated by fluvial down-cutting during the Messinian crisis but this mechanism of formation applies only for the southern side of the Alps. Lithostratigraphic records and dating evidence reveal that overdeepened valleys were repeatedly occupied and excavated by glaciers during past glaciations. However, the age of the original formation of (non-Messinian) overdeepened structures remains unknown. The mechanisms causing overdeepening also remain unidentified and it can only be speculated that pressurised meltwater played an important role in this context.     

Experimental constraints on storage conditions in the chemically zoned phonolitic magma chamber of the Laacher See volcano

Phase relations of three samples of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) have been determined experimentally as a function of temperature (760 to 880 °C), pressure (200, 300 and 400 MPa), water content of the melt and oxygen fugacity (ƒO₂). The crystallization experiments were carried out at ƒO₂=NNO buffer and at NNO=+ 2.3 log units. The melt water contents varied between 6 and more than 8 wt% H₂O, corresponding to water-undersaturated and water saturated conditions respectively. The synthetic products are compared to the natural phases to constrain pre-eruptive conditions in the Laacher See magma chamber. The major phases occurring in the LST have been reproduced. The stability of hauyne is favoured at high ƒO₂ (≈NNO + 2.3). The CaO contents in melt and plagioclase synthesized under water-saturated conditions are significantly higher than in the natural phases, implying that most of the differentiation of the phonolites took place under water-undersaturated conditions. However, this does not exclude the presence of a S-, Cl- and CO₂-rich fluid phase in the upper parts of the magma chamber. The phase relationships and the TiO₂ contents of melts show that the temperature was lower than 760 °C in the upper part of the magma column (probably down to 720 °C in the most differentiated levels) and that temperatures above 840–860 °C prevailed in the lower part. The variation of the X _Mg of ferromagnesian minerals observed in both natural and experimental phases reflects the strong variations in ƒO₂ in the lower magma chamber just prior to eruption (probably variation of about 2 log units). The most probable explanation for these ƒO₂ variations is the injection of an oxidized alkali-rich magma, containing Mg-rich phenocrysts, at the base of a chemically zoned and more reduced magma column prior to eruption. Although the amount of injected magma may not have been very important, it was sufficient to change the ƒO₂ conditions locally, explaining the heterogeneous X _Mg of ferromagnesian minerals and the formation of hauyne at the base of the chamber. Received: 30 May 2000 / Accepted: 12 August 2000     

Deconvolution of overcritical P-wave reflections from the top of D″

We have developed a method to retrieve overcritical PdP reflections from the top of D″ from the data. The differential travel-time, amplitude ratio and phase advance of the reflected PdP waveform relative to the direct P waveform are accurately obtained. Kirchhoff synthetics have been used to model the reflected waveforms for a set of different incidence angles i and velocity contrasts δα at the reflector which were then used as reference wavelets for the deconvolution.The results from a Gräfenberg data set differ markedly from the values predicted by the one-dimensional PWDK model derived from the same data. However, there are large uncertainties in i and δα. This could be caused by the presence of significant lateral heterogeneity in D″ or the need to model other phases which may exist such as the diving waves PDP and PDDP. The method is also applied to two other data examples. The trade-offs between different model parameters are examined.     

Messung der atmosphärischen Gegenstrahlung und Wasserdampfabsorption auf der Hochalpinen Forschungsstation Jungfraujoch

Zusammenfassung Zur Messung der atmosphärischen Gegenstrahlung im Spektralbereich von 7,5 bis 26 bei geringem Wasserdampfgehalt der Atmosphäre wurde ein Gitterspektrograph auf der Hochalpinen Forschungsstation Jungfraujoch eingesetzt. Gleichzeitig wurde der totale Wasserdampfgehalt der Atmosphäre optisch kontrolliert. Hierzu wurde ein Interferenzfilter-Aktinograph verwendet, der die Absorption der Sonnenstrahlung in der 1,38 -Wasserdampfbande mißt. Die Geräte werden beschrieben und die Eichverfahren erläutert. Als erste Ergebnisse werden einige Emissionsspektren und Tagesgänge des totalen Wasserdampfgehaltes gezeigt.Summary For measuring the atmospheric radiation within the spectral region from 7,5 to 26 at small amounts of precipitable water, a grating spectrometer was put into action at the Hochalpine Forschungsstation Jungfraujoch. At the same time the amount of precipitable water was optically controlled by means of an interference filter actinograph, which measures the absorption of sun radiation within the 1,38 -water vapour band. The equipment and its calibration is described. As first results some emission-spectra and diurnal variations of precipitable water are given.

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Résumé Un spectrographe à réseau a été utilisé à la station de recherches alpines du Jungfraujoch pour mesurer le rayonnement atmosphérique dans la bande spectrale située entre 7,5 et 26 de longueur d'ondes pour une faible concentration en vapeur d'eau de l'atmosphère. On a contrôlé simultanément, par procédé optique, la teneur totale en vapeur d'eau de l'atmosphère. Pour ce faire, on s'est servi d'un actinographe muni d'un filtre à interférences qui mesure l'absorption du rayonnement solaire dans la bande de 1,38 (vapeur d'eau). Les appareils sont décrits ici ainsi que la méthode d'étalonnage qui s'y rapporte. Comme premiers résultats, on présente quelques spectres d'émission ainsi que des courbes diurnes de la teneur totale de l'atmosphère en vapeur d'eau.

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Mit 6 Textabbildungen

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Vortrag, gehalten auf der meteorologischen Tagung in Rauris, Österreich, 7. bis 9. September 1961.Die Untersuchungen wurden mit Unterstützung der Cambridge Research Laboratories, OAR, durch das European Office, Aerospace Research, United States Air Force, durchgeführt.     

Talksynthesen im Hinblick auf semisalinare Bedingungen

Zusammenfassung Vor einigen Jahren wurde Talk als Begleitmineral in Salzlagerstän erstmalig gefunden, und zwar in den amerikanischen Salzlagerstätten in Texas und Neu-Mexiko (Balley), in dem englischen Kalisalzvorkommen bei Eskdale in Ost-Vorkshire (Stewart), sowie im Hallstätter Salzberg des alpinen Haselgebirges (Mayrhofer undSChauberger). Auch in Deutschland wurde kürzlich bei der Erdgasbohrung Frenswegen 3 im Emsland in den oberen Lagen des Zechsteinanhydritprofils ein talkantiges Mineral identifiziert (Füchtbauer undGold-Schmidt). Die drei erstgenannten Talkvorkommen zeigen in der Art des Auftretens wesentliche gemeinsame Züge, aus denen man schließen kann, daß sie in der Lagerstätte selber entstanden sind, nicht aber dadurch, daß Talk als Verunreinigung in die Lagerstätte gelangte. Bei näherer Betrachtung bietet sich die Auffassung an, daß der Talk semisalinar (Leonhardt undBerdesinski) gebildet wurde, durch die Einwirkung Mg²⁺-haltiger Reaktionslösungen auf SiO₂-haltige Substanzen, die durch Zuflüsse usw. in die Lagerstätte gelangten. Von diesen Überlegungen ausgehend war zu prüfen, ob sich Talk wirklich bildet bei der Einwirkung von Mg-Laugen auf SiO₂, und zwar bei milden Metamorphosebedingungen, d. h. bei möglichst niedriger Temperatur und niedrigem Druck, entsprechend den wahrscheinlichen Bedingungen in den Salzlagerstätten. Bei den Versuchen wurden MgCl₂-haltige und Carnallit-Lösungen verwandt und stark gealtertes SiO₂-Gel, Quarz feinkristallin, Na₂Si₂O₅ · 2H₂O und Wasserglas als Bodenkörper gewählt. Die Reaktionsprodukte wurden vorwiegend röntgenographisch nach dem Debye-Verfahren untersucht und dann mit, abnehmendem Bildungsgrad in die 3 Gruppen: 1. Talk, 2. Talkprodukt, 3. Hinbildung zum Talk bzw. nur geringe Umbildung eingestuft.Um weitere, differenziertere Aussagen machen zu können, wurden typische Proben mit einer Talkvergleichssubstanz nach der Guiniermethode mit zweigeteilter Kamera untersucht; es wurden auch chemische Analysen und Anfärbtests durchgeführt und von bestimmten Synthesebildungen die mittleren Brechungsindizes bestimmt.Versuche mit SiO₂-Gel als Bodenkörper führten bei einer Reaktionstemperatur von 150° C noch zu guten Talkprodukten. Die 100° C-Versuche sind noch nicht abgeschlossen; ihre Ergebnisse bleiben einer späteren Veröffentlichung vorbehalten. Aber ein Versuch ergab bereits eine Hinbildung zum Talk. Die Synthesen mit Quarz als Bodenkörper erforderten wesentlich längere Reaktionszeiten, führten aber auch bis herab zu 150° C zur Hinbildung zum Talk. Bei Wasserglas (gallertig-dickflüssig) und Na₂Si₂O₅ · 2 H₂O waren diese Hinbildungen bis herab zu einer Reaktionstemperatur von 135° C zu verfolgen. So kann man feststellen, daß sich SiO₂-Substanzen semisalinar, bei milden Umwandlungsbedingungen zum Talk hin umsetzen lassen.     

Morphogenetic problems of the upper Huang He drainage Basin

The combination of meanders, deep gorges, and transverse cuttings is considered as the main geomorphogenetic feature of the upper Huang He. The belonging landforms reveal remnants of former landsurfaces which appear as plateau flats, summit levels, and rock-cut valley terraces. They are interpreted as relics of planation surfaces, pediments, and valley bottoms. The most widespread remnants are the plateau flats, situated at altitudes between about 4,200 and 4,600 m asl. They are named as Main Surface, the other remnants related to it as Pre I-Surface and as Post I-to III-Levels respectively. The planation levels are connected with the stages of the Cenozoic tectonic evolution of the Tibetan Plateau. The upper Huang He drainage pattern is preliminarily explained by an antecedent development of seperate valley units.     

Conventional and ion-microprobe U-Pb dating of detrital zircons of the Tentudía Group (Serie Negra,SW Spain): implications for zircon systematics,stratigraphy, tectonics and the Precambrian/Cambrian boundary

Conventional multi-grain and ion-microprobe dating of detrital zircons from a very low grade metagraywacke of the Tentudía Group (upper part of the Serie Negra, Ossa-Morena Zone, SW Spain) reveals an uppermost Vendian age for the deposition of the metagraywacke. The youngest detrital zircon grain provides a maximum depositional age of about 565 Ma. Thus, these data contradict earlier Middle to Upper Riphean (ca. 1350-850 Ma) estimates on the age of the Tentudía Group and favour a Precambrian/Cambrian boundary falling into the range of 540 to 530 Ma. The presence of about 20% of Pan-African detrital zircons ranging from about 700 to 550 Ma indicates the derivation from Gondwana. From the upper intercept ages of the fan-shaped data field defined by conventionally determined zircon fractions, it can be deduced that 2.1 Ga old zircons as well as Archean zircons existed in the provenance(s) of the Serie Negra sediments. This mixing of crustal components of different ages is in line with the Nd crustal residence age of 1.9 Ga. The latter value, as well as other model ages of the Iberian Massif, indicates unusually high amounts of ancient crust to be present in the strata. This is different to other (meta)sediments of the European Hercynides and suggests that the Iberian strata of uppermost Precambrian age may contain the detritus of more internal, older parts of Gondwana than other European strata of comparable ages. Geochemical data on the analysed sample and further metagraywackes of the Tentudía Group argue for a deposition in an arc environment. Such a scenario would conform with the syn- to post-orogenic shallow marine deposition of the studied sediments. Furthermore, an upper time limit for the pre-Lower Cambrian deformational history, including two phases of regional deformation, is given by the maximum age of deposition, implying a very short time interval for deposition and deformation of the Tentudía Group. Concerning the U-Pb systematics of detrital zircon fractions, it is probable that numerous, previously published conventional multi-grain zircon data on (meta)sedimentary rocks of the European Hercynides readily can be explained by the presence of up to 20% of Pan-African detrital zircons and later Phanerozoic lead loss during metamorphic transformation of the sedimentary protoliths. Moreover, this implies that such metasediments originated from post-Pan-African sedimentary precursors.     

Strontium — ein Fazies-Diagenese-Indikator im Oberen Wettersteinkalk (Mittel-Trias) der Ostalpen

Zusammenfassung 921 Proben von 18 Standard-Profilen des Oberen Wettersteinkalkes (Ober-Ladin/ Unter-Karn) und seiner stratigraphischen Äquivalente Partnachschichten und Arlbergschichten wurden mit Hilfe der AAS auf Ca, Mg und Sr analysiert. Es wurden die Strontium-Verteilungen in den unterschiedenen Faziesbereichen (Riff-, Rand-, Lagunen- und Beckenfazies) und die Einflüsse von Diagenese, Salinität, Tongehalt und Dolomitisierung auf diese Verteilungen untersucht.Im Vergleich mit rezenten Karbonaten sind die Strontium-Mittelwerte in fast allen Faziesbereichen sehr gering (um 100–200 ppm). Diese intensive Strontium-Verarmung wurde wahrscheinlich durch Frischwasser-Einflüsse während verschiedener Diagenesestufen verursacht. Zum Hangenden (Raibler Schichten/Karn) treten in der Lagunen- und Randfazies Horizonte mit hohen Sr-Gehalten auf (1000–6000 ppm), fallweise auch Coelestin, der als Indikator für evaporitische Sedimentationsbedingungen in arider Umgebung gelten kann.

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921 samples collected from 18 standard profiles of the Upper Wettersteinkalk (Upper Ladinian/Lower Carnian) and the corresponding Partnachschichten and Arlbergschichten were analysed with aid of AAS for Ca, Mg and Sr. Additional the HCl-insoluble was detected. The strontium-distributions in different facies types (i. e. reef, reef-margin, lagunal and basin facies) and the influences of diagenesis, salinity, clay content and dolomitization on these distributions were investigated.In nearly all facies areas the Sr means are very low (100–200 ppm) compared with recent carbonates. This strong diminution of Sr was caused by fresh-water influence during different stages of diagenesis. Approaching the Raiblian Schists (Carnian) the lagunal and reef-margins facies contain horizons with high Sr values (1000–6000 ppm) and sometimes celestite, which indicates evaporitic sedimentary conditions in an arid climatic environment.

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Résumé 921 échantillons provenant de 18 coupes du Wettersteinkalk supérieur (sup. Ladinien/ inf. Carnien) et de ses équivalents stratigraphiques «Partnachschichten» et «Arlbergschichten» ont été analysés à l'aide de l'AAS pour Ca, Mg et Sr. On a examiné la distribution du strontium dans les différents facies lithologiques (p. e. facies récifaux, de bordure, de lagune, de plate-forme carbonatée) et les influences exercées par la diagenèse, la salinité, la teneur en argile et la dolomitisation sur ces distributions.Comparées aux carbonates récents les concentrations en strontium sont très pauvres (de 100 à 200 ppm). Cet appauvrissement intensif en Sr fut produit vraisemblablement par les influences de l'eau douce (eau souterraine ou vadose) au cours des différents stades de la diagenèse. Vers les strates de Carnien (Couches de Raibl) les coupes du Wettersteinkalk supérieur contiennent des horizons avec une grande quantité de strontium (1000–6000 ppm), et quelquefois aussi de la célestine, ce qui indique des conditions évaporitiques de la sédimentation dans un entourage aride.

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