New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Results from a Multi-disciplinary Sedimentary Pilot Study of Tectonic Lake Iznik (NW Turkey) – Geochemistry and Paleolimnology of the Recent Past

A limnogeological reconnaissance study was carried out on Lake Iznik, located in the southeast of the Marmara region of Turkey, involving a seismic survey and collection of short sediment cores. This lake is located on the middle branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), a transform plate boundary between the Eurasian and Anatolian Plates. It is, therefore, tectonically active and offers an opportunity to investigate the interplay of sedimentary and seismo-tectonic processes, as well as climate change and human impact in the region. Short cores of the three sub-basins, maximum length of 35.5 cm, recovered non-laminated, blackish clays and silts with varying amounts of biogenic and minerogenic (allochthonous, autochthonous) material, which documented almost the last 80 years of deposition and environmental history. High sedimentation rates in the deeper core sections are accompanied by changes in land use (conversion of woodland to farmland) in the northern areas of Lake Iznik, which caused the deposition of more weathered material (high K/Na ratios) and higher contents of Mn in the lake. A tendency towards eutrophic conditions within the last 20 years is indicated by high nutrient content (N, TOC, P), decreasing C/N-ratios, and characteristic diatom and cladoceran associations. Also increased pollution is revealed by higher Pb, Cu, and Zn contents and increased supply of human and animal faeces (high coprostanol content) during the last two decades. But simultaneous lower sedimentation rates towards the core tops complicate the reconstruction of recent and past eutrophication and pollution states of Lake Iznik. This requires an extension of the pilot study and deeper sediment cores, to recover non-anthropogenic influenced sediment levels.     

A Comparison of Sediment Varves (1950–2003 AD) in Two Adjacent Lakes in Northern Sweden

Koltjärnen and Nylandssjön are two closely situated lakes (<2 km apart) in northern Sweden. During the past century, distinct varved sediments have formed in these lakes. Nylandssjön has two varved, deep basins. Since lake and catchment characteristics superficially appear very similar for the two lakes and they are exposed to the same climate, one would expect the sediment varves to be similar. This investigation compares the varves in the two deep basins of Nylandssjön, and in the two lakes. The comparison of basins of Nylandssjön shows that varve thickness, water content and annual accumulation rates of organic matter and nitrogen are correlated for the period (1970–2003). The grey-scale curves are only clearly similar in about 50% of the varves. In the between-lake comparison varve thickness, water content and annual accumulation rates of organic matter and nitrogen are correlated for the period (1950–1996). However, the annual accumulation rates of dry mass, minerogenic matter and biogenic silica differ between the lakes, as well as within-varve successions in grey-scale. A general explanation to the differences is that the prerequisites for varve formation are not totally similar because of differences in catchment size, catchment- to-lake material fluxes, lake productivity and land-use influence. This study illustrates the complex relationships that exist between a lake, its catchment, in-lake productivity and formation of sediment varves. As a consequence, we must not apply a too simplistic view of the potential of varves as past climatic indicators, especially if the lakes are affected by land-use.     

Early Holocene water budget of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin, Central Kenya Rift

The Nakuru-Elmenteita basin in the Central Kenya Rift, contains two shallow, alkaline lakes, Lake Nakuru (1770 m above sea level) and Lake Elmenteita (1786 m). Ancient shorelines and lake sediments at 1940 m suggest that these two lakes formed a single large and deep lake as a result of a wetter climate during the early Holocene. Here, we used a hydrological model to compare the precipitation–evaporation balance during the early Holocene to today. Assuming that the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin was hydrologically closed, as it is today, the most likely climate scenario includes a 45% increase in mean-annual precipitation, a 0.5°C decrease in air temperature, and an increase of 9% in cloud coverage from the modern values. Compared to the modeling results from other East African lake basins, this dramatic increase in precipitation seems to be unrealistic. Therefore, we propose a significant flow of water from the early Holocene Lake Naivasha in the south towards the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin to compensate the extremely negative hydrological budget of this basin. Since we did not find any field evidence for a surface connection, as often proposed during the last 70 years, the hydrological deficit of the Nakuru-Elmenteita basin could have also been compensated by a subsurface water exchange.     

Tackling social exclusion in European neighbourhoods: experiences and lessons from the NEHOM project

Disadvantaged urban neighbourhoods with their complex social, economic and physical situations have increasingly become the focus of governmental policies in the EU. The emphasis has shifted from improving physical qualities to building opportunities for social groups in these areas. While physical upgrade is easier to achieve, at least in the short run, initiatives often fail in outcomes on communities and local participation. This paper aims to improve understanding on how to tackle area-based social exclusion and create socially coherent communities. Building on the results of the NEHOM project, the focus is on examining how various interventions have impacted local communities and their opportunities for better inclusion. A comparison between neighbourhoods shows that mixing social groups to a certain degree is likely to be a necessary step towards opening long-term opportunities for a disadvantaged neighbourhood. The planned initiatives should at the same time directly benefit local communities, and the involvement of local groups in the planning and implementation process helps to guarantee that the overall changes are accepted by the local community. However, the proposed guidelines do not provide a universal recipe for a successful renewal suiting each neighbourhood—the contextual matters should always be a starting point when planning an initiative.     

Petrogenesis and tectonic setting of Cadomian felsic igneous rocks, Sandıklı area of the western Taurides, Turkey

In the Sandıklı (Afyon) region, western Taurides, the Late Proterozoic rocks of the Sandıklı basement complex are composed of low-grade meta-sedimentary rocks (Güvercinoluk Formation) intruded by felsic rocks (Kestel Cayı Porphyroid Suite, KCPS). The KCPS is a deformed and highly sheared, dome-shaped rhyolitic body with a granitic core. Quartz porphyry dikes intrude both the slightly metamorphic igneous and the sedimentary rocks of the basement complex. Both the quartz porphyries and rhyolites were converted into mylonites with relict igneous textures. Geochemical data show that these felsic igneous rocks are subalkaline and mainly granitic in composition with SiO₂ >72 wt% and Al₂O₃ >11.5 wt%. The chondrite-normalized incompatible trace element patterns are characterized by distinct negative Rb, Nb, Sr, P, Ti, and Eu with enrichment in Th, U, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, and Zr. The REE patterns of the felsic rocks indicate a strong enrichment in LREE but display slightly flat HREE patterns. According to geochemical characteristics and petrogenetic modeling, extrusive and intrusive rocks of the KCPS were probably derived from an upper continental crustal source (partial melting of granites/felsic rocks) by 18–20% fractional melting plus 18–20% Rayleigh fractional crystallization, which seems to be the most effective igneous process during the crystallization of the KCPS. Single zircon age data from the granitoids and fossils from the disconformably overlying sedimentary successions indicate that the metamorphism and the igneous event in the Taurides are related to the Cadomian orogeny. Based on the geological, geochemical and petrogenetic correlation of the post-collisional granitoids it is further suggested that the Tauride belt in western central Turkey was in a similar tectonic setting to the Gondwanan terranes in North Africa (Younger Granitoids) and southern Europe (Spain, France, Bohemia, Brno Massifs) during the Late Cadomian period.     

Formation of iron-containing colloids by the weathering of phyllite

The formation of colloids during the weathering of phyllite was investigated by exposing ground phyllite to Milli-Q water. Secondary mineral colloids of 10¹–10² nm were detected in significant concentrations. At pH of about 8.5, the solution concentration of these colloids reached up to 10 mg/L (however, acidification to pH 4.0 prevented the formation of the colloids). The mineralogical composition of the secondary mineral colloids is assumed to be a mixture of ferrihydrite, manganese oxyhydroxides, aluminosilicates, amorphous Al(OH)₃ and gibbsite with possible additions of iron silicates and␣iron-alumino silicates. The colloids were stable over longer periods of time (at least several weeks), even in the presence of suspended ground rock. Direct formation of iron-containing secondary mineral colloids at the rock–water interface by the weathering of rock material is an alternative to the well-known mechanism of iron colloid formation in the bulk of water bodies by mixing of different waters or by aeration of anoxic waters. This direct mechanism is of relevance for colloid production during the weathering of freshly crushed rock in the unsaturated zone as for instance crushed rock in mine waste rock piles. Colloids produced by this mechanism, too, can influence the transport of contaminants such as actinides because these colloids have a large specific surface area and a high sorption affinity.     

Dissolved Trace Metal–Organic Complexes in the Lot–Garonne River System Determined Using the C18 Sep-Pak System

An 11-month observation of dissolved and particulate organic matter, chlorophyll a(Chl a), C18 Sep-Pak extractable hydrophobic dissolved organic matter (hDOM) fraction and associated dissolved trace metals (Cd, Cu, V, Co, Ni, Mo, U) was performed in the Lot–Garonne River system. This system includes the Riou Mort, the Lot River and the downstream reaches of the Garonne River and represents the fluvial transport path of trace metals between the major point source of polymetallic pollution, located in the Riou Mort watershed and the Gironde estuary. Spatial and temporal variations of dissolved and particulate organic carbon and Chl areflect the presence of different types of organic matter and their relation with the hDOM fraction. Maximum Chl a/POC ratios (up to 0.03), indicate intense phytoplankton production from March to May. In the Lot River (Temple), DOC and POC concentrations were clearly higher and mean Chl a concentration (2.8 mg g⁻¹) was about three times higher than those of the other sites. High Chl a/POC ratios suggest high phytoplankton activity with maxima in spring and late summer. In the Riou Mort River, very high POC concentrations of up to 40 (mean: 20) occurred, whereas Chl a concentrations were relatively low indicating low phytoplankton activity. High, strongly variable DOC and POC concentrations suggest important natural (Carboniferous soils, forests) or anthropogenic (e.g., former coal mines, waste areas, agriculture, sewage) carbon sources within the small Riou Mort watershed. Despite high DOC concentrations in the Riou Mort River, hDOM metal fractions were generally lower than those at the other sites. The general order of decreasing binding strength between metals and the organic hydrophobic phase (Cu, U > Co, Ni > V, Mo > Cd) at all four sites was in good agreement with the Irving–William series of transition element affinity towards organic ligands. Accordingly, the role of the hydrophobic phase in dissolved Cd transport appeared to be negligible, whereas the hDOM–Cu fraction strongly contributed to dissolved Cu transport.