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191.
Michelle T. H. van Vliet Stephen Blenkinsop Aidan Burton Colin Harpham Hans Peter Broers Hayley J. Fowler 《Climatic change》2012,111(2):249-277
Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate
some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model
ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and
potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km2) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator
have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional
Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios
show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion
of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected.
The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for
the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to
increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections
are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore,
a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation,
temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale. 相似文献
192.
Frequency of Boundary-Layer-Top Fluctuations in Convective and Stable Conditions Using Laser Remote Sensing 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Giovanni Martucci Renaud Matthey Valentin Mitev Hans Richner 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2010,135(2):313-331
The planetary boundary-layer (PBL) height is determined with high temporal and altitude resolution from lidar backscatter
profiles. Then, the frequencies of daytime thermal updrafts and downdrafts and of nighttime gravity waves are obtained applying
a fast Fourier transform on the temporal fluctuation of the PBL height. The principal frequency components of each spectrum
are related to the dominant processes occurring at the daytime and nighttime PBL top. Two groups of cases are selected for
the study: one group combines daytime cases, measured in weak horizontal wind conditions and dominated by convection. The
cases show higher updraft and downdraft frequencies for the shallow, convective boundary layer and lower frequencies for a
deep PBL. For cases characterized by strong horizontal winds, the frequencies directly depend on the wind speed. The temporal
variation of the PBL height is determined also in the likely presence of lee waves. For nighttime cases, the main frequency
components in the spectra do not show a real correlation with the nocturnal PBL height. Altitude fluctuations of the top of
the nocturnal boundary layer are observed even though the boundary layer is statically stable. These oscillations are associated
with the wind shear effect and with buoyancy waves at the PBL top. 相似文献
193.
Consistency of observed winter precipitation trends in northern Europe with regional climate change projections 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Often it is claimed that the recent changes in northern European climate are at least partly anthropogenic even though a human
influence has not yet been successfully detected. Hence we investigate whether the recent changes are consistent with regional
climate change projections. Therefore, trends in winter (DJF) mean precipitation in northern Europe are compared to human
induced changes as predicted by a set of four regional climate model simulations. The patterns of recent trends and predicted
changes match reasonably well as indicated by pattern correlation and the similarity is very likely not random. However, the
model projections generally underestimate the recent change in winter precipitation. That is, the signal-to-noise ratio of
the anthropogenic precipitation change is either rather low or the presently used simulations are significantly flawed in
their ability to project changes into the future. European trends contain large signals related to the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO), of which a major unknown part may be unrelated to the anthropogenic signal. Therefore, we also examine the consistency
of recent and projected changes after subtracting the NAO signal in both the observations and in the projections. It turns
out that even after the removal of the NAO signal, the pattern of trends in the observations is similar to those projected
by the models. At the same time, the magnitude of the trends is considerably reduced and closer to the magnitude of the change
in the projections. 相似文献
194.
Jacqueline Flückiger Reto Knutti James W. C. White Hans Renssen 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(6):633-645
Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial
events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled
global ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt
glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated
events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While
the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest
temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer
months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications
of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities
influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation
of paleo-records are discussed. 相似文献
195.
In order to understand the cometary plasma environment it is important to track the closely linked chemical reactions that dominate ion evolution. We used a coupled MHD ion-chemistry model to analyze previously unpublished Giotto High Intensity Ion Mass Spectrometer (HIS-IMS) data. In this way we study the major species, but we also try to match some minor species like the CHx and the NHx groups. Crucial for this match is the model used for the electrons since they are important for ion-electron recombination. To further improve our results we included an enhanced density of supersonic electrons in the ion pile-up region which increases the local electron impact ionization. In this paper we discuss the results for the following important ions: C+, CH+, CH+2, CH+3, N+, NH+, NH+2, NH+3, NH+4, O+, OH+, H2O+, H3O+, CO+, HCO+, H3CO+, and CH3OH+2. We also address the inner shock which is very distinctive in our MHD model as well as in the IMS data. It is located just inside the contact surface at approximately 4550 km. Comparisons of the ion bulk flow directions and velocities from our MHD model with the data measured by the HIS-IMS give indication for a solar wind magnetic field direction different from the standard Parker angle at Halley's position. Our ion-chemical network model results are in a good agreement with the experimental data. In order to achieve the presented results we included an additional short lived inner source for the C+, CH+, and CH+2 ions. Furthermore we performed our simulations with two different production rates to better match the measurements which is an indication for a change and/or an asymmetric pattern (e.g. jets) in the production rate during Giotto's fly-by at Halley's comet. 相似文献
196.
We present Monte Carlo simulations for the polarization of light reflected from planetary atmospheres. We investigate dependencies of intensity and polarization on three main parameters: single scattering albedo, optical depth of a scattering layer, and albedo of a Lambert surface underneath. The main scattering process considered is Rayleigh scattering, but isotropic scattering and enhanced forward scattering on haze particles are also investigated. We discuss disk integrated results for all phase angles and radial profiles of the limb polarization at opposition. These results are useful to interpret available limb polarization measurements of solar system planets and to predict the polarization of extra-solar planets as a preparation for VLT/SPHERE. Most favorable for a detection are planets with an optically thick Rayleigh-scattering layer. The limb polarization of Uranus and Neptune is especially sensitive to the vertically stratified methane mixing ratio. From limb polarization measurements constraints on the polarization at large phase angles can be set. 相似文献
197.
198.
Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 103 floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m3/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management. 相似文献
199.
Md Feroz Islam Hans Middelkoop Paul P. Schot Stefan C. Dekker Jasper Griffioen 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14119
The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta plain within Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the world especially under current anthropogenically modified (i.e., embanked) conditions. Tidal river management (TRM) as practiced in coastal regions of Bangladesh may provide an opportunity to combat RSLR by raising the land level through controlled sedimentation inside beels (depression within embanked polders) with re-opening of polders. To date, TRM has been applied to tide-dominated coastal regions, but the potential applicability of TRM for the beels within the polders of river-dominated and mixed flow (MF) regimes remains to be assessed. We apply a calibrated 2D numerical hydromorphodynamic model to quantify sediment deposition in a beel flooded through breaching of the polder dike under conditions of river-dominated, tide-dominated and MF regimes for different seasons and applying different regulation schemes for the flow into the beel. Simulation results show considerable seasonality in sediment deposition with largest deposition during the monsoon season. The potential of controlled flooding is highest in the tide-dominated region, where sediment accumulation can be up to 28 times higher than in the river-dominated region. Regulating flow into a beel increases trapping efficiency, but results in slightly lower total deposition than without regulation. We conclude that re-establishing flooding of the beel within the polder without regulating the flow into the beel through breaching of the polder dike is a promising strategy for the mixed and tide-dominated flow regions in the delta as the sediment accumulation can raise the land surface at a higher rate than RSLR and effective SLR (ESLR). In the more upstream river-dominated section of the delta, accumulation rates would be much lower, but the pressure of sea level rise on these areas is lower as well. Owing to the abundant availability of sediment, application of controlled flooding like TRM therefore provides an opportunity to counteract the impact of RSLR and ESLR by means of land raising, particularly along the tidal river reaches in the GBM delta. 相似文献
200.
Hans Van de Vyver 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1635-1647
Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data. 相似文献