Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.     

GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle

In 1989, the need for reliable gridded land surface precipitation data sets, in view of the large uncertainties in the assessment of the global energy and water cycle, has led to the establishment of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) at Deutscher Wetterdienst on invitation of the WMO. The GPCC has calculated a precipitation climatology for the global land areas for the target period 1951–2000 by objective analysis of climatological normals of about 67,200 rain gauge stations from its data base. GPCC's new precipitation climatology is compared to several other station-based precipitation climatologies as well as to precipitation climatologies derived from the GPCP V2.2 data set and from ECMWF's model reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Finally, how GPCC's best estimate for terrestrial mean precipitation derived from the precipitation climatology of 786 mm per year (equivalent to a water transport of 117,000 km³) is fitting into the global water cycle context is discussed.     

Rutile inclusions in garnet from a dissolution‐reprecipitation mechanism

Metamorphic garnet commonly contains needle‐like rutile inclusions as well as equant rutile inclusions that surround quartz inclusions and range in size from submicrometer to nanometer. Although the origin of these equant rutile inclusions, that is, exsolution or non‐exsolution, has important implications for petrological and tectonic processes, the crystallographic characteristics of these inclusions have rarely been studied because of the small sizes and analytical difficulties involved. Here, we report the crystallographic characteristics pertinent to the genetic origin of minute equant rutile inclusions in cloudy, nearly spherically shaped garnet domains with Ti‐depleted compositions surrounding quartz inclusions in ultrahigh‐pressure garnet from several diamondiferous Erzgebirge quartzofeldspathic gneissic rock samples. TEM analyses show that the equant rutile crystals in cloudy garnet domains are partially bounded by the low‐energy {100}_rt ± {110}_rt ± {101}_rt facets and have rather random crystallographic orientation relationships (CORs) with the garnet host, with preferential alignment of low‐energy lattice planes, for example, {100}_rt//{112}_grt, for some rutile crystals. Although the rather random CORs are unlikely to be attributed to solid‐state exsolution subjected to the stringent topotactic garnet lattice constraints, the characteristic subhedral {100}_rt ± {110}_rt ± {101}_rt crystal forms of rutile can be rationalized by a metasomatic dissolution‐reprecipitation mechanism via a fluid phase. In this scenario, the quartz+fluid inclusions in garnet were first subjected to decompression microcracking during rock exhumation, followed by dissolution of Ti‐bearing garnet matrix at the crack tips or along the crack surfaces and subsequent reprecipitation of rutile, apatite, gahnite, akdalaite, and Ti‐depleted garnet. The rapid coalescence between rutile and garnet crystals in fluid or direct attachment of rutile crystals onto the dissolving crack surfaces would then yield the rather random CORs as reported here. These results, along with previous work on rutile needles, indicate rather diverse genesis of rutile inclusions in various crystal forms, thus shedding light on the controversial exsolution origin for other inclusion suite/microstructure in minerals.     

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed.     

Real-time envelope cross-correlation detector: application to induced seismicity in the Insheim and Landau deep geothermal reservoirs

We develop and test a real-time envelope cross-correlation detector for use in seismic response plans to mitigate hazard of induced seismicity. The incoming seismological data are cross-correlated in real-time with a set of previously recorded master events. For robustness against small changes in the earthquake source locations or in the focal mechanisms we cross-correlate the envelopes of the seismograms rather than the seismograms themselves. Two sequenced detection conditions are implemented: After passing a single trace cross-correlation condition, a network cross-correlation is calculated taking amplitude ratios between stations into account. Besides detecting the earthquake and assigning it to the respective reservoir, real-time magnitudes are important for seismic response plans. We estimate the magnitudes of induced microseismicity using the relative amplitudes between master event and detected event. The real-time detector is implemented as a SeisComP3 module. We carry out offline and online performance tests using seismic monitoring data of the Insheim and Landau geothermal power plants (Upper Rhine Graben, Germany), also including blasts from a nearby quarry. The comparison of the automatic real-time catalogue with a manually processed catalogue shows, that with the implemented parameters events are always correctly assigned to the respective reservoir (4 km distance between reservoirs) or the quarry (8 km and 10 km distance, respectively, from the reservoirs). The real-time catalogue achieves a magnitude of completeness around 0.0. Four per cent of the events assigned to the Insheim reservoir and zero per cent of the Landau events are misdetections. All wrong detections are local tectonic events, whereas none are caused by seismic noise.     

Electrical conductivity of orthopyroxene and plagioclase in the lower crust

The electrical conductivities of lower crustal orthopyroxene and plagioclase, as well as their dependence on water content, were measured at 6–12 kbar and 300–1,000°C on both natural and pre-annealed samples prepared from fresh mafic xenolith granulites. The complex impedance was determined in an end-loaded piston cylinder apparatus by a Solarton-1260 Impedance/Gain Phase analyzer in the frequency range of 0.1–10⁶ Hz. The spectra usually show an arc over the whole frequency range at low temperature and an arc plus a tail in the high and low frequency range, respectively, at high temperature. The arc is due to conduction in the sample interior, while the tails are probably due to electrode effects. Different conduction mechanisms have been identified under dry and hydrous conditions. For the dry orthopyroxene, the activation enthalpy is ~105 kJ/mol, and the conduction is likely due to small polarons, e.g., electrons hopping between Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺. For the dry plagioclase, the activation enthalpy is ~161 kJ/mol, and the conduction may be related to the mobility of Na⁺. For the hydrous samples, the activation enthalpy is ~81 kJ/mol for orthopyroxene and ~77 kJ/mol for plagioclase, and the electrical conductivity is markedly enhanced, probably due to proton conduction. For each mineral, the conductivity increases with increasing water content, with an exponent of ~1, and the activation enthalpies are nearly independent of water content. Combining these data with our previous work on the conductivity of lower crustal clinopyroxene, the bulk conductivity of lower crustal granulites is modeled, which is usually >~10⁻⁴ S/m in the range of 600–1,000°C. We suggest that the high electrical conductivity in most regions of the lower crust, especially where it consists mostly of granulites, can be explained by the main constitutive minerals, particularly if they contain some water. Contributions from other highly conducting materials such as hydrous fluids, melts, or graphite films are not strictly necessary to explain the observed conductivities.     

Stratigraphy and sedimentation rates of Upper Cretaceous deep-water systems of the Rhenodanubian Group (Eastern Alps, Germany)

In the Bavarian Alps (Germany), west of the Isar River, the abyssal deposits of the Lower Barremian to Upper Campanian Rhenodanubian Group consist of siliciclastic and calcareous turbidites alternating with hemipelagic non-calcareous mudstones. The up to 1500-m-thick succession, deposited in the Penninic Basin to the south of the European Plate, is characterized by a low mean sedimentation rate (c. 25 mm kyr⁻¹) over 60 million years. Palaeocurrents and turbidite facies distribution patterns suggest that sedimentation occurred on a weakly inclined abyssal plain. The highest sedimentation rates (up to 240 mm kyr⁻¹) were associated with the calcareous mud turbidites of the newly defined Röthenbach Subgroup, which includes the Piesenkopf, Kalkgraben and Hällritz formations (Middle Coniacian to Middle Campanian). These calcareous turbidites prograded from the west, and interfinger towards the east with red hemipelagic claystone. A high sea level presumably favoured pelagic carbonate production and accumulation on the shelves and on internal platforms in the western part of the basin, whereas siliciclastic shelves with steep slope angles have bordered the eastern part of the basin, where a dearth of turbidite sedimentation and increased Cretaceous oceanic red beds deposition occurred. In contrast to the eustatically-induced Middle Coniacian to Lower Campanian Cretaceous oceanic red beds (calcareous nannoplankton zones CC14 to CC18), red hemipelagites of Early Cenomanian age (upper part of calcareous nannoplankton zone CC9) and early Late Campanian age (upper part of zone CC21 and zone CC22) are interpreted as the result of regional tectonic activity.     

Water source characterization through spatiotemporal patterns of major,minor and trace element stream concentrations in a complex,mesoscale German catchment

The link between spatiotemporal patterns of stream water chemistry and catchment characteristics for the mesoscale Dill catchment (692 km²) in Germany is explored to assess the catchment scale controls on water quality and to characterize water sources. In order to record the spatiotemporal pattern, ‘snapshot sampling’ was applied during low, mean and high flow, including 73 nested sites throughout the catchment. Water samples were analysed for the elements Li, B, Na, Mg, Al, K, Ca, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Mo, Ba, Pb and U using inductively‐coupled‐plasma mass spectrometry, and for electric conductivity and pH. Principle component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to find typical element associations and to group water samples according to their hydrochemical fingerprints. This revealed regional hydrochemical patterns of water quality which were subsequently related to catchment attributes to draw conclusions about the controls on stream chemistry. It was found that various lithologic signals and anthropogenic point source inputs controlled the base flow hydrochemistry. During increased flows, stream waters were diluted causing additional hydrochemical variability in response to heterogeneous precipitation inputs and differences in aquifer storage capacities. The hydrochemical patterns further displayed in‐stream mixing of waters. This implied, that stream waters could be apportioned to the identified water sources throughout the catchment. The basin‐wide hydrochemical variability has the potential to outrange the tracer signatures typically inferred in studies at the hillslope scale and is able to strongly influence the complexity of the catchment output. Both have to be considered for further catchment scale tracer and modelling work. Despite the likelihood of non‐conservative behaviour, the minor and trace elements enhanced the rather qualitative discrimination of the various groundwater types, as the major cations were strongly masked by point source inputs. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonlinear wave coupling in type IV solar radio bursts

In order to explain a fine structure of parallel ridges in stationary type IV continua, the emission due to the coupling of electrostatic upper hybrid waves and Bernstein waves at the sum frequency of the upper hybrid and harmonics of the gyro frequency has been calculated. If the energy density of these electrostatic waves is of the order of 10^-3 times the thermal energy density, then the observed zebra pattern can be emitted by a region with a diameter of 10³ km.