Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

A continuous/discontinuous Galerkin framework for modeling coupled subsurface and surface water flow

We consider conjunctive surface-subsurface flow modeling, where surface water flow is described by the shallow water equations and ground water flow by Richards’ equation for the vadose zone. Coupling between the models is based on the continuity of flux and water pressure. Numerical approximation of the coupled model using the framework of discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods is formulated. In the subsurface, the local discontinuous Galerkin (LDG) method is used to approximate ground water velocity and hydraulic head; a DG method is also used to approximate surface water velocity and elevation. This approach allows for a weak coupling of the models and the use of different approximating spaces and/or meshes within each regime. A simplified LDG method based on continuous approximations to water head is also described. Numerical results that investigate physical and numerical aspects of surface–subsurface flow modeling are presented. This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant DMS-0411413.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

High heat flow anomalies on an old oceanic plate observed seaward of the Japan Trench

Thirty-three new measurements on the seaward slope and outer rise of the Japan Trench along a parallel of 38°45′N revealed the existence of high heat flow anomalies on the subducting Pacific plate, where the seafloor age is about 135 m.y.. The most prominent anomaly with the highest value of 114 mW/m² is associated with a small mound on the outer rise, which was reported to be a kind of mud volcano. On the seaward slope of the trench, heat flow is variable: high (70–90 mW/m²) at some locations and normal for the seafloor age (about 50 mW/m²) at others. The spatial variation of heat flow may be related to development of normal faults and horst/graben structures due to bending of the Pacific plate before subduction, with fluid flow along the fault zones enhancing the vertical heat transfer. Possible heat sources of the high heat flow anomalies are intra-plate volcanism in the last several million years like that discovered recently on the Pacific plate east of the Japan Trench.     

Giant ancient landslide in the Alma water gap (Crimean Mountains,Ukraine): notes to the predisposition,structure, and chronology

Large-scale ancient landslides of the area of more than 5 km² and volume exceeding 200 × 10⁶ m³ are characteristic features of the valleys incised in the northern periphery of the Crimean Mountains (Ukraine). The largely affected area is located in the outermost cuesta range of the Crimean Mountains which consists of rigid Sarmatian limestones overlying weak Middle Miocene and Upper Palaeogene deposits. A giant landslide arose in the Alma water gap as a reflection of several coincident preparatory factors such as suitable bedrock stratification, smectite-rich bedrock exposed to swelling activity, presence of faults parallel to the valley trend, and river capture event which preceded the landslide event. The occurrence of such ancient megaslides is particularly interesting in the area which is characterized by low precipitation (<500 mm/year) and weak contemporary seismicity. It probably reflects a more dynamic environment in humid phases of the Holocene; however, seismic triggering along the Mesozoic suture zone cannot be rejected. Compressional features such as gravitational folds in the central and distal parts of the landslide, which probably correlate with the whole landslide genesis or its significant reactivation, arose, according to the radiocarbon dating, during the Holocene climatic optimum in the Atlantic period. The slope deformation has been relatively quiescent since that time, except minor historic reactivization which took place in the frontal part of the landslide. We suppose that the studied landslide could be classified as a transitional type of slope deformation with some signs of spreading and translational block slides.     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.     

Palaeomagnetic data of late Cretaceous rocks from Sumba,Indonesia; the rotation of the Sumba continental fragment and its relation with eastern Sundaland

Sumba island forms part of a continental fragment, located near the transition of the Sunda Arc to the Banda Arc. It lies within the forearc region, between the active volcanic arc to the north and the Java Trench to the south. Palaeomagnetic studies of Cretaceous (late Albian-early Campanian) Lasipu sediments revealed a mean characteristic remanence (ChRM) direction with D = 42.5°, I = –23.0° and _{_95} = 6.1°, indicating a palaeolatitude of 12° S. This ChRM is, most likely, a secondary magnetization, possibly caused by the intrusion of the 65-Ma-old Tanadaro granodiorite. This granodiorite gave a mean ChRM direction with D = 44.7°, I = –16.3°, and ₉₅ = 12.2°, pointing to a palaeolatitude of 8.3° S. Eastern Sundaland with Borneo, west and south Sulawesi, and Sumba formed one continental unit in the late Mesozoic, most likely attached to the southeast Asian mainland. Borneo and west and south Sulawesi underwent large counterclockwise (CCW) rotations since the Jurassic with 45° during the Cretaceous, and 45° during the Palaeogene. The Sumba microcontinent, most likely, became detached from eastern Sundaland soon after deposition of the Lasipu sediments. Palaeomagnetic data show that Sumba underwent subsequent clockwise (CW) rotations of up to 96°: 53° between 82 and 65 Ma, and 38° between 65 and 37 Ma. Since the late Eocene, only small rotations occurred. The data indicate that eastern Sundaland, including Sumba, remained close to the equator since the Jurassic. CW rotations occurred in Sundaland both in the north (Indochina) and in the west (Sibumasu) as a consequence of the India – Eurasia collision. The same sense of rotation is seen further east in Sulawesis East Arm and the Philippine Sea plate. Eastern Sundaland (Borneo and west Sulawesi) with CCW rotations is being trapped between these CW rotating plates.     

Daily Air Temperature and Pressure Series for Stockholm (1756–1998)

Daily meteorological observations have been made at the old astronomical observatory in Stockholm since 1754. Complete daily mean series of air temperature and sea level pressure are reconstructed from the observational data for 1756–1998. The temperature and pressure series arereconstructed and homogenized with the aid of metadata, statistical tests and comparisons with data from other stations. Comparisons with independently reconstructed daily series for nearby Uppsala (1722–1998) show that the quality of thedaily Stockholm data is good, although the reliability is lower before the mid-19th century. The daily temperature data show that the colder winter mean temperatures of the late 18th to early 19th centuries were connected with a particularly high frequency of very cold winter days. The warmer summers of the same period are more connected with a general shift of the temperature distribution towards higher temperatures than in the late 20th century.