Reliability checking for GNSS baseline and network processing

Reliability analysis is inseparably connected with the formulation of failure scenarios, and common test statistics are based on specific assumptions. This is easily overlooked when processing observation differences. Poor failure identification performance and misleading pre-analysis results, mainly meaningless minimum detectable biases and external reliability measures, are the consequence. A reasonable failure scenario for use with differenced GNSS observations is formulated which takes into account that individual outliers in the original data affect more than one processed observation. The proper test statistics and reliability indicators are given for use with correlated observations and both batch processing and Kalman filtering. It is also shown that standardized residuals and redundancy numbers fail completely when used with double differenced observations.

The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts

When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.     

Textural and micro-analytical insights into mafic–felsic interactions during the Oruanui eruption,Taupo

Quenched juvenile mafic inclusions (enclaves) are an occasional but informative component in the deposits of large felsic eruptions. Typically, the groundmasses of these inclusions rapidly crystallize as the mafic magma is chilled against a more voluminous, cooler felsic host, providing a physical and chemical record of the nature and timing of mafic–felsic interactions. We examine mafic inclusions of two compositional lineages (tholeiitic and calc-alkaline) from deposits of the 25.4 ka Oruanui eruption (Taupo, New Zealand). 2-D quantitative textural data from analysis of back-scattered electron images reveal a marked diversity in the groundmass textures of the inclusions, including median crystal sizes (amphibole: 14–45 µm; plagioclase: 21–75 µm) and aspect ratios (amphibole: 1.7–4.2; plagioclase: 2.1–4.0), area number densities (amphibole: 122–2660 mm^?2; plagioclase: 117–2990 mm^?2), area fractions (?) of minerals (?_plag?=?23–45%, ?_amph?=?0–28%, ?_cpx?=?0–6%, ?_oxides?=?0.6–5.5%), and the relative abundance of plagioclase and amphibole (?_plag/?_amph?=?1.0–4.6). Textural parameters vary more significantly within, rather than between, the two compositional lineages, and in some cases show marked variations across individual clasts, implying that each inclusion’s cooling history, rather than bulk composition, was the dominant control on textural development. Groundmass mineral compositions are also diverse both within and between inclusions (e.g. plagioclase from An_34–92, with typical intra-clast variability of ~?20 mol%), and do not correlate with bulk chemistry. Diverse groundmass textures and mineral and glass chemistries are inferred to reflect complex interplay of a range of factors including the degree and rate of undercooling, bulk composition, water content and, possibly, intensive variables. Our data are inconsistent with breakup of a crystallizing ponded mafic layer at the base of the Oruanui melt-dominant body, instead implying that each inclusion partially crystallized as a discrete body with a unique cooling history. Extensive ingestion of mush-derived macro-crystals suggests that mechanical breakup of mafic feeder dikes occurred within a transition zone between the mush and melt-dominant magma body. In this zone, the mush lacked yield strength, as has been inferred from field studies of narrow (meters to few tens of meters) mush-melt transition zones preserved in composite intrusions. Evidence for plastic deformation of inclusions during eruption and the abundance of fresh residual glass in inclusions from all eruptive phases suggest that the inclusions formed syn-eruptively, and must have been formed recurrently at multiple stages throughout the eruption.     

Orbital linkages of Comet 6P/d'Arrest based on its asymmetric light curve

We present an investigation of different models of the nongravitational acceleration on Comet 6P/d'Arrest, as used in orbital linkages spanning 150 years from the discovery of the comet in 1851 until the recent observations made in 2001. Some of our models use the time-shifted g-like function to represent the variation of outgassing rate, but the main thrust is on models using instead a production curve that is fitted to recent light curve observations—mainly those in 1976. We pay special attention to the proper scaling of such a production curve, when applied to other apparitions with a different perihelion distance q, and we find a best fit with a q^−1.6 power-law. Generally, the best fit is found with models, in which the acceleration components are expressed in terms of the angular parameters of the rotating nucleus. We thus find the orientation of the spin axis, and using the orbital evolution we are able to predict a variable time shift of the outgassing curve. The very best results are found when applying this time shift to the light-curve based, angular models. The totality of the 1851-2001 observations can then be linked with a mean residual of less than 4″. This may be brought down to ∼^2″ by solving for individual ‘activity parameters’ of all apparitions, which are multiplicative factors applied to the acceleration amplitudes. These turn out to be within 10% of unity for the best fit. We have also performed a linkage to the observations of Comet 1678 (La Hire) using our models. We find an indication of a secular increase of the amount of asymmetry of the outgassing with respect to perihelion, part of which is due to the variable time shift caused by the orbital evolution.     

不同结构性黄土的强度规律及传统强度准则适应性分析

在真三轴试验基础上揭示了多种不同结构性原状黄土的强度变化规律,分析了在岩土工程实践中常用的Mohr-Coulomb准则和Matsuoka-Nakai准则对不同结构性原状黄土的适应性。结果表明:当结构性黄土的强度越大时,其在π平面上的破坏线越接近于抹圆曲边三角形,反之其在π平面上的破坏线越接近于抹圆角三角形;结构性黄土随着结构性的增大在π平面上的强度破坏线从抹圆角三角形逐渐向抹圆曲边三角形发展,最终趋近于Mises圆;两个强度准则所描述的强度都比结构性原状黄土的实际强度值小,Mohr-Coulomb准则的误差比Matsuoka-Nakai准则的误差大,并且随着结构性的增强其误差也逐渐增大。     

Molecular identification and culture observation on <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acrochaete leptochaete</Emphasis> (Chaetophoraceae,Chlorophyta) from China

Acrochaete leptochaete (Huber) Nielsen (Chaetophoraceae, Chlorophyta) was isolated from the macroalgae Chaetomorpha collected from intertidal pools in Rongcheng, Shandong, China. 18S rDNA combined with ITS regions were used to ascertain the morphological identification of the isolated material. Based on the unialgal culture, asexual reproduction and growth characteristics of A. leptochaete were investigated over wide ranges of temperature and irradiance. Results revealed that asexual reproduction of A. leptochaete could be realized by biflagellate zoospores. The zoospores germinated directly to give self- replicating generations. Zoospore germination was bipolar. A temperature range from 13-21°C and a lower irradiance of 36 μmol/(m2·s) were most favorable for the growth of A. leptochaete. Thallus organization, an important taxonomic criterion for the genus Acrochaete, was affected markedly by temperature and irradiance. Our results extend the knowledge about the species’ general biology and its morphological plasticity. For classification and identification of a simple microphytic algae like A. leptochaete, which are traditionally placed in the class Chaetophoraceae, we propose that molecular tools associated with culture observations are applied.     

<Superscript>10</Superscript>Be, <Superscript>18</Superscript>O and radiogenic isotopic constraints on the origin of adakitic signatures: a case study from Solander and Little Solander Islands,New Zealand

Subduction-related Quaternary volcanic rocks from Solander and Little Solander Islands, south of mainland New Zealand, are porphyritic trachyandesites and andesites (58.20–62.19 wt% SiO₂) with phenocrysts of amphibole, plagioclase and biotite. The Solander and Little Solander rocks are incompatible element enriched (e.g. Sr ~931–2,270 ppm, Ba ~619–798 ppm, Th ~8.7–21.4 ppm and La ~24.3–97.2 ppm) with MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic signatures. Isotopically similar quench-textured enclaves reflect mixing with intermediate (basaltic-andesite) magmas. The Solander rocks have geochemical affinities with adakites (e.g. high Sr/Y and low Y), whose origin is often attributed to partial melting of subducted oceanic crust. Solander sits on isotopically distinct continental crust, thus excluding partial melting of the lower crust in the genesis of the magmas. Furthermore, the incompatible element enrichments of the Solander rocks are inconsistent with partial melting of newly underplated mafic lower crust; reproduction of their major element compositions would require unrealistically high degrees of partial melting. A similar argument precludes partial melting of the subducting oceanic crust and the inability to match the observed trace element patterns in the presence of residual garnet or plagioclase. Alternatively, an enriched end member of depleted MORB mantle source is inferred from Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic compositions, trace element enrichments and εHf ? 0 CHUR in detrital zircons, sourced from the volcanics. ¹⁰Be and Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic systematics are inconsistent with significant sediment involvement in the source region. The trace element enrichments and MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic characteristics of the Solander rocks require a strong fractionation mechanism to impart the high incompatible element concentrations and subduction-related (e.g. high LILE/HFSE) geochemical signatures of the Solander magmas. Trace element modelling shows that this can be achieved by very low degrees of melting of a peridotitic source enriched by the addition of a slab-derived melt. Subsequent open-system fractionation, involving a key role for mafic magma recharge, resulted in the evolved andesitic adakites.     

Estimates of gravity wave drag on Mars: Indication of a possible lower thermospheric wind reversal

Spectral gravity wave parameterization suitable for planetary thermospheres applied to wind and temperature from Mars Climate Database reveals enormously strong drag incompatible with the wind distribution. It points out to a possible wind reversal in the 110-140 km layer similar to the one in the Earth’s lower thermosphere.     

Iron isotope fractionation in subduction-related high-pressure metabasites (Ile de Groix,France)

Characterisation of mass transfer during subduction is fundamental to understand the origin of compositional heterogeneities in the upper mantle. Fe isotopes were measured in high-pressure/low-temperature metabasites (blueschists, eclogites and retrograde greenschists) from the Ile de Groix (France), a Variscan high-pressure terrane, to determine if the subducted oceanic crust contributes to mantle Fe isotope heterogeneities. The metabasites have δ⁵⁶Fe values of +0.16 to +0.33‰, which are heavier than typical values of MORB and OIB, indicating that their basaltic protolith derives from a heavy-Fe mantle source. The δ⁵⁶Fe correlates well with Y/Nb and (La/Sm)_PM ratios, which commonly fractionate during magmatic processes, highlighting variations in the magmatic protolith composition. In addition, the shift of δ⁵⁶Fe by +0.06 to 0.10‰ compared to basalts may reflect hydrothermal alteration prior to subduction. The δ⁵⁶Fe decrease from blueschists (+0.19 ± 0.03 to +0.33 ± 0.01‰) to eclogites (+0.16 ± 0.02 to +0.18 ± 0.03‰) reflects small variations in the protolith composition, rather than Fe fractionation during metamorphism: newly-formed Fe-rich minerals allowed preserving bulk rock Fe compositions during metamorphic reactions and hampered any Fe isotope fractionation. Greenschists have δ⁵⁶Fe values (+0.17 ± 0.01 to +0.27 ± 0.02‰) similar to high-pressure rocks. Hence, metasomatism related to fluids derived from the subducted hydrothermally altered metabasites might only have a limited effect on mantle Fe isotope composition under subsolidus conditions, owing to the large stability of Fe-rich minerals and low mobility of Fe. Subsequent melting of the heavy-Fe metabasites at deeper levels is expected to generate mantle Fe isotope heterogeneities.     

Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Network

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol. 28, No. 9, September 2003 (on the Internet at ). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain the names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.