Analysis of swarms of high-frequency seismic events at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia (January 1986–August 1987): Development of a procedure

The determination of signal properties like frequency, amplitude, “signature” of the sequence of arrivals of P- and S-phases and the subsequent computation of hypocenter parameters, are the steps of a procedure in the analysis of swarms of high-frequency seismic events from Nevado del Ruiz volcano, which could be useful in other volcanic areas. The use of this procedure on Ruiz data led to the determination of various seismic source volumes, which together with hypocenters of non-swarmed events and the identification of geological features such as faults which cross the area, alignment of domes and volcanic edifices, and the record of low-frequency seismic events not centered in the area of the active vent, suggest the existence of a magma chamber of a rather complex geometry. This hypothesis would suggest that magma, emplaced in zones of weakness (faults) that affect the area, may act as the source of seismic activity. This demands a revision of the methodology used in the deformation measurements, and in the analysis of released energy and event occurrence too. The relations between hypocenters (sources), location and relative energy of the swarms, as well as the general volcanic activity (tremor, ash and gas emission, deformation) could turn out to be a possible means to assist in the identification of premonitory activity and thus be relevant to the process of monitoring and forecasting.     

Efficiency test of earthquake prediction around Thessaloniki from electrotelluric precursors

Since the completion of the network in January 1983, the electric field of the earth has been continuously monitored at four sites near Thessaloniki, the capital of northern Greece. From the present study and from previous investigations by similar measurements in Greece, it is evident that transient changes of the electrotelluric field occur prior to earthquakes. The analysis of these electric forerunners leads in many cases to a successful prediction of the epicentral area, the magnitude and the time of the impending event. Predictions prior to regional earthquakes are issued and documented with telegrams.From November 1983 until the end of May 1984 twelve earthquakes (M_L > 3.5) occurred in the vicinity of Thessaloniki. Ten of these were predicted and warnings given by telegram, whereas two smaller seismic events were missed. Two additional predictions were unsuccessful. Independent of their magnitudes, predicted events took place within a time window of 6 hrs to 6 days after the observations of the electrotelluric anomalies. The accuracy of the predicted epicenters in eight cases is better than 100 km, which corresponds roughly to the mean distance between the electric stations. Magnitude estimates deviate by less than 0.5 magnitude units from the seismically observed ones.Considering the two largest earthquakes, it is shown that the probability of making each of these predictions by chance is of the order of 10⁻².     

Deglaciation and postglacial timberline in the San Juan Mountains,Colorado

Lake Emma, which no longer exists because of a mining accident, was a tarn in a south-facing cirque near the headwaters of the Animas River in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado. During the Pinedale glaciation, this area was covered by a large transection glacier centered over the Lake Emma region. Three radiocarbon dates on basal organic sediment from Lake Emma indicate that by ca. 15,000 yr B.P. this glacier, one of the largest in the southern Rocky Mountains, no longer existed. Twenty-two radiocarbon dates on Picea and Abies krummholz fragments in the Lake Emma deposits indicate that from ca. 9600 to 7800 yr B.P., from 6700 to 5600 yr B.P., and at 3100 yr B.P. the krummholz limit was at least 70 m higher than present. These data, in conjunction with Picea:Pinus pollen ratios from both the Lake Emma site and the Hurricane Basin site of J. T. Andrews, P. E. Carrara, F. B. King, and R. Struckenrath (1975, Quaternary Research 5, 173–197) suggest than from ca. 9600 to 3000 yr B.P. timberline in the San Juan Mountains was higher than present. Cooling apparently began ca. 3000 yr B.P. as indicated by decreases in both the percentage of Picea pollen and Picea:Pinus pollen ratios at the Hurricane Basin site (Andrews et al., 1975). Cooling is also suggested by the lack of Picea or Abies fragments younger than 3000 yr B.P. at either the Lake Emma or the Hurricane Basin site.     

Spectra of the earthquake sequence February-March, 1981, in south-central Sweden

On February 13, 1981 a relatively strong earthquake occurred in the Lake Vänern region in south-central Sweden. The shock had a magnitude ofM_L = 3.3 and was followed within three weeks by three aftershocks, with magnitudes 0.5 ≤ M_L ≤ 1.0. The focal mechanism solution of the main shock indicates reverse faulting with a strike in the N-S or NE-SW direction and a nearly horizontal compressional stress. The aftershocks were too small to yield data for a full mechanism solution, but first motions of P-waves, recorded at two stations, are consistent for the aftershocks. Dynamic source parameters, derived from Pg- and Sg-wave spectra, show similar stress drops for the main shock (2 bar) and the aftershocks (1 bar), while the differences in seismic moment (1.5·10²⁰ resp. 4·10¹⁸dyne cm), fault length (0.7 resp. 0.2 km) and relative displacement (0.15 resp. 0.03 cm) are significant.     

GPS network monitors the Western Alps' deformation over a five-year period: 1993–1998

  The Western Alps are among the best studied collisional belts with both detailed structural mapping and also crustal geophysical investigations such as the ECORS and EGT seismic profile. By contrast, the present-day kinematics of the belt is still largely unknown due to small relative motions and the insufficient accuracy of the triangulation data. As a consequence, several tectonic problems still remain to be solved, such as the amount of N–S convergence in the Occidental Alps, the repartition of the deformation between the Alpine tectonic units, and the relation between deformation and rotation across the Alpine arc. In order to address these problems, the GPS ALPES group, made up of French, Swiss and Italian research organizations, has achieved the first large-scale GPS surveys of the Western Alps. More than 60 sites were surveyed in 1993 and 1998 with a minimum observation of 3 days at each site. GPS data processing has been done by three independent teams using different software. The different solutions have horizontal repeatabilities (N–E) of 4–7 mm in 1993 and 2–3 mm in 1998 and compare at the 3–5-mm level in position and 2-mm/yr level in velocity. A comparison of 1993 and 1998 coordinates shows that residual velocities of the GPS marks are generally smaller than 2 mm/yr, precluding a detailed tectonic interpretation of the differential motions. However, these data seem to suggest that the N–S compression of the Western Alps is quite mild (less than 2 mm/yr) compared to the global convergence between the African and Eurasian plate (6 mm/yr). This implies that the shortening must be accomodated elsewhere by the deformation of the Maghrebids and/or by rotations of Mediterranean microplates. Also, E–W velocity components analysis supports the idea that E–W extension exists, as already suggested by recent structural and seismotectonic data interpretation. Received: 27 November 2000 / Accepted: 17 September 2001     

Climate change in Yellowstone National Park: Is the drought-related risk of wildfires increasing?

The increased frequency of wildfires in the United States has become a common prediction associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases. In this investigation, variations in annual wildfire data in Yellowstone National Park are compared to variations in historical climate conditions for the area. Univariate and multivariate analytical techniques reveal that (a) summer temperatures in the Park are increasing, (b) January-June precipitation levels are decreasing, and (c) variations in burn area within the Park are significantly related to the observed variations in climate. Outputs from four different general circulation model simulations for 2 × CO₂ are included in the analyses; model predictions for increasing aridity in the Yellowstone Park area are generally in agreement with observed trends in the historical climate records.     

Glass crust on intratelluric phenocrysts in volcanic ash as a measure of eruptive violence

A comparison of each of the volumes of nine deposits of airborne volcanic ash from the Coatepeque Volcano in El Salvador, Central America to the amount of glass crust adhering to intratelluric phenocrysts shows an inverse relationship. As violence, volume, and eruptive abrasion increase, glass crusts decrease. The eruptive violence of a prehistoric eruption and the original volume of ash can thus be calculated from glass-to-crystal ratios observed in erosional remnants.     

Luna 20: mineralogy and petrology of fragments less than 125 μm size

Two milligrams of less than 125 μm size particles from the Luna 20 soil sample (22001,17) have been examined. The results of the mineral identification and analysis verify earlier assumptions that the nature of the lunar highlands is predominantly anorthositic in composition. The presence of highly magnesian clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and olivine suggests crystallization of Highland rocks in an ultrabasic environment. No fragments were observed that could be unequivocally assigned to mare basalt types.     

Energy flow and elemental concentrations in the Steina River ecosystem (Black Forest, Germany)

Considering food web energetics and elemental cycling together allows the testing of hypotheses about the coevolution of biological systems and their physical environment. We investigated the energy flow and the distribution of 25 elements in the Steina River.¶We constructed an annual energy flow network and estimated the emergy ("embodied energy" that includes all the energy involved in a process) contributions of resources sustaining the system. Furthermore, we measured the concentration of various macronutrients, essential elements, and heavy metals in the physical environment and trophic compartments. Finally, we examined the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the "rarity" of an element and its tendency to bioaccumulate. To do so, we used transformity, the relative energy input required to sustain a compartment's net production or the concentration differential of an element between the living community and the physical environment.¶The resulting energy flow network is one of the most complete available for streams. In the Steina, over 99% of the energy input is transported through the system without being processed. Dissolved inorganic matter and sunlight are the largest inputs, but uptake efficiency is much higher for dissolved and particulate organic matter. Transformities of trophic compartments and elements span 6 to 7 orders of magnitude.¶The tendency to bioaccumulate was as predicted for most elements, with macronutrients showing no accumulation and heavy elements accumulating in high-transformity compartments. However, Na and K were found at highest concentrations in consumers, and Pb, Ga, and Cd in algae. Improved estimates may become possible as more knowledge is available on ecosystem flows. We suggest further ways of testing hypotheses about strategies of element processing.     

Airborne gravimetry used in precise geoid computations by ring integration

Two detailed geoids have been computed in the region of North Jutland. The first computation used marine data in the offshore areas. For the second computation the marine data set was replaced by the sparser airborne gravity data resulting from the AGMASCO campaign of September 1996. The results of comparisons of the geoid heights at on-shore geometric control showed that the geoid heights computed from the airborne gravity data matched in precision those computed using the marine data, supporting the view that airborne techniques have enormous potential for mapping those unsurveyed areas between the land-based data and the off-shore marine or altimetrically derived data. Received: 7 July 1997 / Accepted: 22 April 1998