The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions.     

The distribution of particulate matter in the Atlantic Ocean

We have determined the dry weight of suspended particulate matter in seawater in a section through the western Atlantic Ocean from 75°N to 52°S. The concentrations, operationally defined as that weight retained on 0.6-μm and 0.4-μm pore size Nuclepore filters, contained in 1 kg of seawater, range from 5 to 300 μg/kg and show readily explainable regional features. High concentrations are found in surface waters and in association with radpidly moving bottom waters in the Denmark Straits overflow and in Antarctic bottom waters to 15°S. Low concentrations, <12 μg/kg, characterize the mid-water regions of the sub-tropical gyres. High concentrations are seen in sinking Labrador Sea water and in a plume extending at least a kilometer off the bottom at 35°N–40°N where the cruise track intersects the North Atlantic gyre. It is doubtful whether this important phenomenon could be observed by any means other than through particulate observations, either optical or gravimetric, and this provides a unique insight into the scale of vertical turbulent processes.     

An Operational Application of Automatic Feature Extraction: The Measurement of Cracks in Concrete Structures

An understanding of the evolution of cracks in concrete structures due to long term natural deformation is important to civil engineers, but quantitative measurements can be difficult to make. However, digital imaging offers a potential solution. This short paper illustrates the operational application of automated image processing techniques for accurate, multi-temporal crack measurements. The first part of this paper provides an overview of automatic feature extraction, essential for automatic crack detection. The latter part describes the methods developed for detecting and measuring cracks. Due to the long term nature of the application, operational results have yet to be finalised, although sample results are presented     

Phenotypic Variation Among Invasive <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> Populations Does Not Influence Salinity Tolerance

Phenotypic variation within species can have community- and ecosystem-level effects. Such variation may be particularly important in ecosystem engineers, including many invasive species, because of the strong influence of these species on their surrounding communities and environment. We combined field surveys and glasshouse experiments to investigate phenotypic variation within the invasive common reed, Phragmites australis, among four estuarine source sites along the east coast of North America. Field surveys revealed variation in P. australis height and stem density among source sites. In a glasshouse environment, percent germination of P. australis seeds also varied across source sites. To test the degree to which phenotypic variation in P. australis reflected genetic or environmental differences, we conducted a glasshouse common garden experiment assessing the performance of P. australis seedlings from the four source sites across a salinity gradient. Populations maintained differences in morphology and growth in a common glasshouse environment, indicating a genetic component to the observed phenotypic variation. Despite this variation, experimentally increased porewater salinity consistently reduced P. australis stem density, height, and biomass. Differences in these morphological metrics are important because they are correlated with the impacts of invasive P. australis on the ecological communities it invades. Our results indicate that both colonization and spread of invasive P. australis will be dependent on the environmental and genetic context. Additional research on intraspecific variation in invasive species, particularly ecosystem engineers, will improve assessments of invasion impacts and guide management decisions in estuarine ecosystems.     

Improving constant-volume simulations of undrained behaviour in DEM

In order to simulate undrained conditions using the discrete element method, a constant sample volume is often assumed. There are well-recognised problems with these constant-volume triaxial simulations, particularly of dense samples, which inhibit quantitative comparison with laboratory experiments. In this paper, four possible explanations for these problems with conventional constant-volume simulations of ideal spherical particles are explored, each of which has a physical basis: particle crushing, the presence of highly compressible air within the sample, or the reduction in stiffness due to particle surface asperities or non-spherical particle shapes. These options are explored independently and in combination through implementation in the open-source LAMMPS code. In situations where a significant amount of particle crushing occurs, it is important to incorporate this in the simulations so that stresses are not over-estimated. There is experimental evidence that irregular particles have lower Young’s moduli than the Hertzian spheres often used in DEM. In the absence of particle crushing, the most effective method to achieve more realistic stress–strain responses is to reduce the particle shear modulus substantially. This approach has the added computational benefit of enabling an increase in the simulation time-step.

     

与铜、金矿化有关的富碱侵入岩矿物化学研究

以哀牢山—金沙江富碱侵入岩带内与金矿化有关的姚安正长斑岩和与铜矿化有关的马厂箐花岗斑岩为研究对象,开展了系统的矿物化学研究。结果表明,姚安岩体形成的温压条件为(818±50)℃和0.9×108~1.3×108Pa,马厂箐岩体形成的温压条件为(729±50)℃和2.2×108~2.8×108Pa,两岩体的氧逸度均高于地幔石英-橄榄岩-磁铁矿出溶线,相对于马厂箐岩体而言,姚安岩体结晶时的氧逸度更高。两岩体矿化作用的差异与岩浆的分异程度有密切的关系。相对于铜矿化而言,氧逸度较高的岩浆有利于金矿化。     

Exploring the influence of interparticle friction on critical state behaviour using DEM

Understanding the extent to which discrete element method (DEM) simulations can capture the critical state characteristics of granular materials is important to legitimize the use of DEM in geomechanics. This paper documents a DEM study that considered the sensitivity of the critical state response characteristics to the coefficient of interparticle friction (μ) using samples with gradings that are representative of a real soil. Most of the features that are typically associated with sand behaviour at the critical state were seen to emerge from the DEM simulation data. An important deviation occurs when high μ values (μ ≥ 0.5) are used, as has been the case in a number of prior DEM studies. While there is a systematic variation in the critical state behaviour with μ for μ < 0.5, when μ ≥ 0.5, the behaviour at the critical state seems to be insensitive to further increases in μ. In contrast to observations of conventional soil response, when μ ≥ 0.5, the void ratio at the critical state initially increases with increasing mean effective stress (p′). Analysis of the DEM data and use of simple models of isolated force chains enabled some key observations. When ‘floating’ particles that do not transmit stress are eliminated from the void ratio calculation, the void ratio at the critical state decreases consistently with increasing p′. There is a transition from sliding to rolling behaviour at the contact points as μ increases. Beyond a limiting value of μ, further increases in μ do not increase the buckling resistance of individual strong force chains. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.