A practical approach for seismic risk assessment of underground structures: A case study of Iranian subway tunnels

Active geological and young faulted zones have made Iran’s territory one of the most seismological active areas in the world according to recent historical earthquakes. Some of the deadliest earthquakes such as Gilan 1990 and Kermanshah 2018 caused tens of thousands fatalities. If such violent earthquakes affect strategical structures of a country, indirect losses would be more concerning than direct losses. Nowadays there is no doubt about the vital role of tunnels and underground structures in urban areas. These facilities serve as nonstop functional structures for human transportation, water and sewage systems and underground pedestrian ways. Any external hazard subjected to underground spaces, such as earthquake could directly affect passenger’s lives and significantly decrease whole system reliability of public transportation. Commonly two earthquake levels of intensities, Maximum Design Earthquake (MDE) and Operating Design Earthquake (ODE) were used in seismic design of underground structures. However, uncertain nature of earthquakes in terms of frequency content, duration of strong ground motion, and level of intensity indicate that only the two levels of earthquake (ODE and MDE) cannot cover the all range of possible seismic responses of structures during a probable earthquake. It is important to evaluate the behavior of tunnel under a wide range of earthquake intensities. For this purpose, a practical risk-based approach which is obtained using the total probability rule was used. This study illustrates a framework for evaluation seismic stability of tunnels. Urban railway tunnels of Tehran, Shiraz, Ahwaz, Mashhad, Isfahan and Tabriz were considered as study cases. Nominal value of seismic risk for three main damage states, including minor, moderate and major were calculated.     

Snow water equivalent prediction using Bayesian data assimilation methods

Using the U.S. National Weather Service’s SNOW-17 model, this study compares common sequential data assimilation methods, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), and four variants of the particle filter (PF), to predict seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) within a small watershed near Lake Tahoe, California. In addition to SWE estimation, the various data assimilation methods are used to estimate five of the most sensitive parameters of SNOW-17 by allowing them to evolve with the dynamical system. Unlike Kalman filters, particle filters do not require Gaussian assumptions for the posterior distribution of the state variables. However, the likelihood function used to scale particle weights is often assumed to be Gaussian. This study evaluates the use of an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) based on the Kaplan–Meier survival probability method to compute particle weights. These weights are then used in different particle filter resampling schemes. Detailed analyses are conducted for synthetic and real data assimilation and an assessment of the procedures is made. The results suggest that the particle filter, especially the empirical likelihood variant, is superior to the ensemble Kalman filter based methods for predicting model states, as well as model parameters.     

Timing of juvenile arc crust formation and evolution in the Sapat Complex (Kohistan–Pakistan)

The combination of age determination and geochemical tracers allows understanding the source evolution during magmatism. We studied the Sapat Complex, in the exhumed Cretaceous Kohistan Paleo-Island Arc, to reconstruct the formation of the juvenile lower arc crust and the evolution of the mantle source during arc magmatism. High precision ID-TIMS U/Pb dating on zircon, shows that a protracted period of magmatic accretion formed the Sapat Complex between 105 and 99 Ma. Since continued melt percolation processes that formed the lower crust obscured the original bulk rock Nd–Pb–Sr isotopic composition, we rely on the Hf isotopic composition of zircons of different ages to unravel the source evolution. Nd and Pb bulk isotopic compositions coupled with Hf isotopic composition on zircons allow reconstructing a geodynamical scenario for the Sapat Complex, and the Cretaceous history of the Arc. We suggest that trenchward migration of the hot mantle source at 105 Ma explains the small heterogeneous εHf signal between + 14 and + 16. This heterogeneity vanished within ca. 2 million years, and the εHf of the source evolved from + 16 to + 14 at 99 Ma. Integrated to the Kohistan Cretaceous history, which has a baseline of εHf ≈ 14, these data pinpoint two geodynamical events, with slab retreat and the formation of the Sapat Complex followed by splitting of the Kohistan island arc at 85 Ma.     

Synthetic light curves of two eclipsing binary systems,U Sge and AW UMa

Photometric curve fits have been investigated by means of numerical quadratures to develop theoretical light curves appropriate to stars built up in accordance with the Roche model. The method has been applied previously to β Per (Al-Naimiy and Budding, 1977) on the basis of available observations in red and infrared, while presently applied to two systems with contact components.

1. U Sge, spherical primary totally eclipsed by a contact component secondary. Improved photometric elements of the system have been found, and compared with those obtained by Kopal's method in the frequency domain. The outcome of the curve fitting corresponds well with the results of an analysis in the frequency domain.
2. AW UMa, exhibiting the shallowest minima known for totally eclipsing W UMa systems. The physical and geometrical elements of the system have been found, and the contact nature of the two components confirmed.

     

Anthropogenic Decline of Ancient,Sustainable Water Systems: Qanats

Qanat is an ancient underground structure to abstract groundwater without the need for external energy. A recognized world heritage, Qanat has enabled civilization in arid and semi-arid regions that lack perennial surface water resources. These important structures, however, have faced significant challenges in recent decades due to increasing anthropogenic pressures. This study uses remote sensing to investigate land-use changes and the loss of 15,983 Qanat shafts in the Mashhad plain, northeast of Iran, during the past six decades. This entails obtaining a rare aerial imagery from 1961, as well as recent satellite imagery, over a region with the highest density of Qanats in Iran, the birthplace of Qanat. Results showed that only 5.59% of the Qanat shafts in 1961 remained intact in 2021. The most prominent Qanat-impacting land-use changes were agriculture and urban areas, that accounted for 42.93 and 31.81% Qanat shaft destruction in the study area, respectively. This study also showed that groundwater table decline, demographic changes, and reduction in the appeal of working in the Qanat maintenance and construction industry among the new generation are existential threats to Qanats, and may result in the demise of these ancient structures in the future. Findings of this study can be used for urban planning in arid and semi-arid areas with the aim of protecting these historic water structures.     

Study on the Erodibility and Mechanical Resistance of Mulches Prepared from Micro Silica–Cement Mixtures

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - Mulching is fastest strategy to control sand dune movement in arid and semiarid areas. In the present study the effect of micro silica- cement mixture was...     

Evolution of gold mineralization in the Ashanti Gold Belt,Ghana: Evidence from carbonate compositions and parageneses

Summary Ankerite, siderite, calcite and magnesite occur in variable proportions within all host and mineralized rocks of the Bogosu and Prestea mining districts of the Ashanti Gold Belt, Ghana. The compositions of coexisting ankerite-siderite grains establish that complex rhythmically zoned growth banding and replacement textures are present. This compositional variation is attributed to episodic fluctuation in the temperature and composition of fluids in the Bogosu-Prestea mesothermal gold system. Temperatures derived from the ankerite-siderite composition geothermometer are generally consistent with those from calcite-dolomite, arsenopyrite, carbon and oxygen stable isotope, and fluid inclusion geothermometers, and are about 360°C for the metamorphic peak, 400 to 350°C for carbonate alteration of mafic dikes, and 340 to 140°C for gold deposition. The latter range occurs on a thin-section scale and represents separate pulses of fluid in the ore conduit.

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Entstehung der Goldvererzung im Ashanti Gold Belt, Ghana: Rückschlüsse aus Karbonat zusammensetzungen und Paragenesen

Zusammenfassung In allen Wirtsgesteinen und mineralisierten Gesteinen der Bergbaureviere von Bogosu und Prestea im Ashanti Gold Belt, Ghana treten Ankerit, Siderit, Calcit und Magnesit in unterschiedlichen Verhältnissen auf. Die Zusammensetzung von koexistierenden Ankerit-Siderit-Körnern zeigt eine komplexe, rhythmisch zonierte Wachstumsstreifung und Verärdngungsstrukturen. Diese Änderungen in der Zusammensetzung sind auf episodische Fluktuationen der Temperatur und der Zusammensetzung der Fluide im mesothermalen Goldsystem von Bogosu-Prestea zurückzuführen. Temperaturen nach dem Ankerit-Siderit-Geothermometer stimmen im allgerneinen mit jenen aus Geothermometern, die auf Calcit-Dolomit, Arsenopyrit, den stabilen Isotopen von Kohlenstoff and Sauerstoff und auf Flüssigkeitseinschlüssen beruhen, überein. Sie liegen bei rund 360°C für den Höhepunkt der Metamorphose, bei 400 bis 350°C für die Karbonat Alteration der matischen Gänge and bei 340 bis 140°C für die Gold-Fällung. Der letztgenannte Bereich tritt in Dünnschlif Maßstab auf and repräsentiert einzelne Schübe von Fluid in den Erzgängen.

     

A regional Bayesian hierarchical model for flood frequency analysis

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - In this study, we propose a regional Bayesian hierarchical model for flood frequency analysis. The Bayesian method is an alternative to the...     

Optimal set of photometric elements of the eclipsing variable TZ Bootis

The eclipsing system of W UMa-type TZ Bootis has been examined on the basis of six light curves analyzed by the means of the Fourier techniques. An optimal resulting set of geometric elements for the system is obtained from both minima, through there magnitudes variations during the periods 1967, 1969, 1974, 1976, 1978, and 1980.The intrinsic variability of the system has been discussed in the light of the behaviour of the light curves.     

Monitoring of dust storm and estimation of aerosol concentration in the Middle East using remotely sensed images

Arabian Journal of Geosciences - Dust storms are one of the major environmental disasters in the arid regions of Middle East, occurring in very high frequency. As a result, monitoring dust storms...