Distribution characteristics of Geo-hazards in Ganxi Valley after the Wenchuan earthquake

A devastating earthquake of Ms 8.0 struck the Wenchuan area on May 12, 2008. The quake triggered numerous landslides and avalanches in Ganxi Valley. Aerial photo interpretation indicates that the landslides and avalanches, presently in a stable state, are concentrated in 91 subregions of the valley, occupying 10.42 km², about 29% of the valley area. Some laws have been found on the gradient, aspect, elevation, distance of rupture, and formation lithology of geo-hazards in Ganxi Valley: (1) They are mainly situated on slopes between 30° and 50° and increase in number with increasing slope; (2) Failures are mainly in a southerly direction; and most occurred between 1,000 and 1,600 m, especially between 1,000 and 1,400 m; (3) Most are within 2,000 m of the Beichuan fault or within 1,000 m of other major faults; (4) most failures occurred from the T₁f + t formation in the study area. The geo-hazards status quo of Ganxi Valley provides foundation for the scheme of hazard reducing in the future.     

汶川地震地表破裂面形貌特征

准确描述破裂面形貌对于我们理解地震断层作用是非常重要的,破裂面的形貌特征包含许多关于地震和断层机制的有用信息。在Mw7.9 2008汶川地震中断层活动产生了两个新鲜的破裂面,八角庙破裂面和沙坝破裂面。我们使用3D便携式激光扫描仪(Tri mble GX)对两个破裂表面进行测量,在野外微观尺度上研究了破裂面形貌特征。通过能谱密度和均方值两个方法分析破裂面形貌,新鲜的破裂面表现为自相仿性,能谱密度和均方值均与剖面长度存在幂律关系。在能谱密度与空间频率的对数图中,能谱密度曲线存在明显的拐点,该拐点所对应的波长称为特征波长,表明单一分形不能准确描述破裂面形貌。八角庙破裂面在平行滑动方向上的特征波长为7 mm,在垂直方向上特征波长略大一些(区域Ⅰ为10 mm,区域Ⅱ为9 mm);沙坝破裂面在平行滑动方向上的特征波长为8 mm,但垂直方向上特征波长略小(6 mm)。均方值曲线的最小二乘拟合直线的斜率为Hurst指数,该指数依赖于剖面线方向并描述破裂面形貌的各向异性,H指数的最小值和最大值分别与平行擦痕和垂直擦痕方向对应,这与野外断层面擦痕测量结果一致。沙坝破裂面的H指数极坐标图中存在次级H指数峰值(对应剖面线方向为85°和160°),这揭示破裂面上存在一组隐匿擦痕。该组隐匿擦痕为汶川地震之前断层活动中形成的,但这还不足以推测上一次断层活动的时间和规模。另外,通过比较新鲜节理面和破裂面表明H指数是否大于0.8反映了断层类型。在整个空间频率域上,能谱密度曲线斜率(-α)和均方值曲线斜率(H)的线性拟合关系为α=1.22+1.72H,并不严格满足两者之间理论关系式,α=1+2H。这个差异是由于测量信号噪音、破裂面的多分形性和分析方法的差异造成的。     

基于雷达回波最大重叠率的一种临近降水预报方法

基于天气雷达的临近降水预报是雷达短时预报业务系统的重要组成部分,本文在回顾雷达临近降水预报技术发展的基础上,充分考虑新一代天气雷达高时间、空间分辨率的优点,提出两个相邻时刻雷达回波具有最大重叠率的移向、移速是与降水系统整体的移向、移速密切相关的论点,再用此移向、移速对当前雷达回波进行平移,最后采用九点平均的回波生消模型...     

城市雨水地下回灌过程中悬浮物表面堵塞规律

雨洪资源地下回灌是缓解城市供水压力、解决地下水过量开采引起环境负效应的有效途径之一,但堵塞问题却是制约回灌技术推广的关键问题。基于前人理论,研究了入渗介质与悬浮物粒径中值之比(D₅₀/d₅₀)对堵塞层空间分布的影响。以建立表面堵塞预测模型为目的,利用城市雨水回灌细粒石英砂介质开展室内实验,观测雨水回灌的表面堵塞过程并获取渗透性变化的观测数据。根据物理、化学与生物堵塞的产生条件及堵塞特点,判断雨水回灌产生的堵塞性质为物理堵塞。引入过滤模型描述堵塞的发展过程,确定了模型用于模拟细砂表面堵塞的参数值：孔隙堵塞系数（α）为0.15 m²/kg,阻力增长系数（f′R′）为20 000 m/kg。在不改变以上2个参数值的条件下,用该模型模拟不同悬浮物粒径悬浊水回灌细粒石英砂的堵塞过程,取得了较好的拟合效果。此过滤模型可以用于模拟入渗介质与悬浮物粒径D₅₀/d₅₀值小于5的表面堵塞的发展过程,可定量预测堵塞对回灌速率的影响。     

高空探测资料气球空间经纬度偏差算法

随着数值预报的发展,模式的分辨率逐渐提高,探空气球在施放过程中受高空气流影响造成的漂移已大大超出了数值预报模式分辨率,其影响不能忽视。鉴于现有气球空间位置经纬度偏差计算方法基于站心坐标系,忽略地球曲率影响,文章从探测系统原理出发,推导出精确的基于地心坐标系的气球空间位置经纬度偏差计算公式,并通过探空数据文件对原有算法进行误差分析。     

浙江桐庐晚奥陶世内潮汐沉积

本文论述了在中国首次发现的内潮汐沉积的特征及其形成环境。该内潮汐沉积发现于浙江省桐庐县桐君山地区上奥陶统上部,具有典型的对偶层双向递交层序。据其岩类组合和层序特征,可将其定为韵律性砂泥岩薄互层相。其中发育有特征的脉状、波状和透镜状层理。其沉积特征表明形成于开阔的深水斜坡环境,这种对偶层双向递交层序可能为内潮汐的大潮和小潮周期性变化的结果。     

Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate.Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response(e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.     

利用MM5模式输出产品制作空气质量预报方法探讨

根据2004年中尺度数值预报模式MM5输出产品和临沂市环境监测中心逐日监测资料建立了各污染物浓度预报方程,在2005年夏季的试报中,该方程的试报效果较差,其预报准确率明显低于其历史拟合率。为了提高预报准确率,利用逐步回归筛选的因子及统计模型研究中的有关数据,探讨了使用卡尔曼滤波方法制作空气污染物浓度预报的问题。分析发现,利用卡尔曼滤波方法制作空气质量预报可以取得比较满意的效果。     

冲绳海槽至马里亚纳海沟重力异常和地壳结构的初步研究

根据我们实测的水深、重力连续剖面资料,计算了自东海至北斐济盆地的地壳厚度。本文旨在对冲绳海槽至马里亚纳海沟的重力异常和地壳结构进行初步的研究。该地段位于太平洋板块俯冲带以西,构造活动十分复杂、剧烈,并含有多种类型的地壳结构。     

Genetic Programming Approach for Predicting Surface Subsidence Induced by Mining

INTRODUCTIONThe study of surface subsidence resulting fromunderground mining holds significance in view ofbeneficial effects on national economy and people’sliving conditions.As is known,a large quantity ofminerals need to be exploited for modernization con-struction.Mining leads to surface subsidence,someunderground engineering and production facilities aredestroyed accordingly,which blocks the developmentof production and retards people’s living standard.To solve this contradiction,su…