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971.
Effects of climate change on annual streamflow using climate elasticity in Poyang Lake Basin, China 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Shanlei Sun Haishan Chen Weimin Ju Jie Song Hao Zhang Jie Sun Yujie Fang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(1-2):169-183
Hydrological processes depend directly on climate conditions [e.g., precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PE)] based on the water balance. This paper examines streamflow datasets at four hydrological stations and meteorological observations at 79 weather stations to reveal the streamflow changes and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Meigang, Saitang, Gaosha, and Xiashan) within Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2000. Most of the less than 90th percentile of daily streamflow in each watershed increases significantly at different rates. As an important indicator of the seasonal changes in the streamflow, CT (the timing of the mass center of the streamflow) in each watershed shows a negligible change. The annual streamflow in each watershed increases at different rates, with a statistically significant trend (at the 5 % level) of 9.87 and 7.72 mm year?1, respectively, in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds. Given the existence of interactions between precipitation and PE, the original climate elasticity of streamflow can not reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE effectively. We modify this method and find the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable using the correlation analysis. The analyses from the modified climate elasticity in the four watersheds show that a 10 % increase (decrease) in precipitation will increase (decrease) the annual streamflow by 14.1–16.3 %, while a 10 % increase (decrease) in PE will decrease (increase) the annual streamflow by ?10.2 to ?2.1 %. In addition, the modified climate elasticity is applied to estimate the contribution of annual precipitation and PE to the increasing annual streamflow in each watershed over the past 40 years. Our result suggests that the percentage attribution of the increasing precipitation is more than 59 % and the decreasing in PE is less than 41 %, indicating that the increasing precipitation is the major driving factor for the annual streamflow increase for each watershed. 相似文献
972.
中尺度气象模式对风场的预报效果与参数化方案的适应性紧密相关.以内蒙古高原丘陵地形、江苏平缓的海陆交界地形2种典型下垫面试验风电场为模拟区域,分别用WRFV3.2 (Weather Research and Forecast Model)模式自带的6种物理过程参数化组合方案预报了2010年1月和7月两个风电场区域的风速和风向,对比分析了参数化组合方案差异对风场预报的影响.结果表明:①内蒙古试验区,边界层MRF方案描述的边界层结构较MYJ方案合理;微物理方案WSM3在夏季的风速预报能力优于WSM6,而冬季相反;复杂地形区域的风场预报需考虑陆面过程参数化方案,尤其是夏季降水发生后,陆面过程对于边界层结构的影响增大,选用Noah优于无陆面过程.②江苏试验区,边界层MRF方案描述的边界层结构较MYJ方案合理;1月陆面过程RUC方案优于陆面热量扩散和Noah;7月陆面热量扩散方案优于RUC和Noah.③风向预报6个方案的预报风向统计与实际记录风向统计有较好的一致性,风向概率分布相似,盛行风向一致且稳定. 相似文献
973.
将中尺度数值天气预报模式与BP神经网络模型相结合用于风电功率预测,以WRF模式回算了2008年6月至2009年6月试验风电场的气象要素,精度检验结果显示风速预报值与对应实测值之间的相关系数达到0.72,风向、气温、湿度、气压的预报也比较准确,满足建立BP神经网络预报模型的需要.逐一建立试验风电场40台风电机组输出功率的BP神经网络预报模型,分析了数据标准化方法、隐含层神经元数对预报精度的影响.进行了26天实效为24 h的逐10 min预报试验,并以独立样本进行预报精度检验,结果显示单台风电机组输出功率相对均方根误差在24.8%~32.6%之间,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数现在0.45~0.68之间;风电场整体相对均方根误差为19.5%,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数为0.74.研究结果表明该方法可以用于实际的风电功率预测. 相似文献
974.
Kwangsu Ahn Jongchul Chae Kyung-Suk Cho Donguk Song Heesu Yang Philip R. Goode Wenda Cao Hyungmin Park Jakyung Nah Bi-Ho Jang Young-Deuk Park 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4117-4136
The Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) is being operated on the New Solar Telescope of the Big Bear Solar Observatory. It simultaneously records spectra of Hα and Ca ii 8542 Å lines, and this dual-spectra measurement provides an estimate of the temperature and nonthermal speed components. We observed a loop structure in AR 11305 using the FISS, SDO/AIA, and STEREO/EUVI in 304 Å, and found plasma material falling along the loop from a coronal height into the umbra of a sunspot, which accelerated up to 80 km?s?1. We also observed C2 and C7 flare events near the loop. The temperature of the downflows was in the range of 10?000?–?33?000 K, increasing toward the umbra. The temperature of the flow varied with time, and the temperature near the footpoint rose immediately after the C7 flare, but the temperature toward the umbra remained the same. There seemed to be a temporal correlation between the amount of downflow material and the observed C-class flares. The downflows decreased gradually soon after the flares and then increased after a few hours. These high-speed red-shift events occurred continuously during the observations. The flows observed on-disk in Hα and Ca ii 8542 Å appeared as fragmented, fuzzy condensed material falling from the coronal heights when seen off-limb with STEREO/EUVI at 304 Å. Based on these observations, we propose that these flows were an on-disk signature of coronal rain. 相似文献
975.
The analytic function of relativistic nonextensive distribution is given, and employed to solve the Landau damping of longitudinal oscillation in ultra-relativistic plasmas. The unified expression of Landau damping which reduces to the result in relativistic Maxwellian distributed plasmas in the extensive limit is obtained, and find that Landau damping is relevant to both the number and energy of resonant particles, which described by temperature and nonextensive parameters in relativistic nonextensive distribution. 相似文献
976.
1 INTRODUCTION Magnetotactic bacteria are able to respond and orient along the direction of terrestrial or artificial magnetic field, a behavior referred to as magneto- taxis. In the majority of magnetotactic bacteria, the magnetosomes are 25–120 nm in d… 相似文献
977.
Song Jinan 《时间频率学报》1995,(1)
1993年中国科学院同步卫星观测网同步接收亚洲一号卫星的电视信号,进行了多台站时差法定轨及共视法时刻同步试验。试验表明:时差法定轨在经度、纬度方向精度较高,在卫星高度方向误差较大。不进行卫星位置修正时,时刻同步误差小于3μs;进行卫星位置修正时的时刻同步误差小于0.9μs,可应用于局部或大范围网络时刻同步及同步卫星轨道研究。 相似文献
978.
地核不仅具有巨量热能,而且有巨量旋转能,这是地球能量释放的内因;天文因素使地核产生周期性的南北振荡,是地球能量间歇性释放的外因。地质旋回与天文周期直接相关,可以根据天文周期预测未来的地质变化 相似文献
979.
980.
空间数据库的建设速度和成本是影响GIS应用的重要因素。目前空间数据建库存在软件通用性差、建库过程操作复杂、人工干预多、建库效率低等问题。本文针对建库中存在的问题,研究并提出了基于可视化建模思想的空间数据库自动化建库技术,有助于大幅度降低建库复杂性及建库成本,提高效率。 相似文献