牡丹江地震台形变数据快速转换软件

采用VB6.0编制形变数据快速转换软件,可以将epd格式的形变数据转换成Mapsis所要求的格式,便于研究人员使用.牡丹江地震台形变数据快速转换软件已在牡丹江地震台调试通过,使用效果较好,便于推广应用.     

Streamflow regimes of the Yanhe River under climate and land use change,Loess Plateau,China

Soil and water conservation measures including terracing, afforestation, construction of sediment‐trapping dams, and the ‘Grain for Green Program’ have been extensively implemented in the Yanhe River watershed, of the Loess Plateau, China, over the last six decades, and have resulted in large‐scale land use and land cover changes. This study examined the trends and shifts in streamflow regime over the period of 1953–2010 and relates them to changes in land use and soil and water conservation and to the climatic factors of precipitation and air temperature. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Pettitt test were used to identify trends and shifts in streamflow and base flow. A method based on precipitation and potential evaporation was used to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and changes in non‐climate factors changes on annual streamflow. A significant decrease (p = 0.01) in annual streamflow was observed related to a significant change point in 1996, mostly because of significant decreases in streamflow (p = 0.01) in the July to September periods in subsequent years. The annual base flow showed no significant trend from 1953 to 2010 and no change point year, mostly because there were no significant seasonal trends, except for significant decreases (p = 0.05) in the July to September periods. There was no significant trend for precipitation over the studied time period, and no change point was detected. The air temperature showed a significant increasing trend (p < 0.01), and 1986 (p < 0.01) was the change point year. The climate variability, as measured by precipitation and temperature, and non‐climate factors including land use changes and soil and water conservation were estimated to have contributed almost equally to the reduction in annual streamflow. Soil and water conservation practices, including biological measures (e.g. revegetation, planting trees and grass) and engineering measures (such as fish‐scale pits, horizontal trenches, and sediment‐trapping dams) play an important role in reduction of the conversion of rainfall to run‐off. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆2次中强地震前的临界慢化现象研究

以2011年尼勒克、巩留交界6.0级和新源、和静交界6.6级地震为例,研究了2次地震前周边的形变和流体资料的临界慢化现象。首先,用小波变换方法对观测资料进行了预处理,然后计算了临界慢化现象的预警指标,方差和自相关系数,进而总结了2次6级地震发生前观测资料的临界慢化现象特征。结果表明,2次6级地震前出现了临界慢化现象。     

中国东北及邻近地区未来地震趋势分析

通过分析1905年以来东北及邻近地区深震(mB≥6.0)及浅震(MS≥5.0)活动特征,研究深震、浅震"强震组"的时空相关性,计算二者能量比,认为东北地区已经进入第5活动期尾声,未来1—3年内,发生MS 5.0以上地震的可能性不大。     

新疆泥火山群地震前兆异常实时监测与预报的研究

基于网络技术的视频监控服务,实现了对新疆北天山地区3个泥火山点的实时监测,可在线实时查看泥火山活动情况,分析预报人员依据泥火山活动图像可开展地震预测研究。新疆艾其沟泥火山网络视频监控服务系统扑捉到了2次6级地震前火山液面明显的宏观异常变化现象,这说明基于宽带网络技术的网络视频监控服务,可实现互联网用户使用客户端远程软件连接服务器,实现在线实时查看泥火山活动情况的监控画面,并依据泥火山群地震观测网,捕捉泥火山群地震前兆异常。     

Sampling strategy and climatic implications of tree-ring stable isotopes on the southeast Tibetan Plateau

We explore the potential of tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records for reconstructing climate variability in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. Our sampling strategy was designed to investigate intra and inter-tree variability, and the effects of the age of tree on δ¹⁸O variation. We show that intra-tree δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O variability is negligible, and inter-tree coherence is sufficient to build robust tree-ring δ¹⁸O or δ¹³C chronologies based on only four trees. There is no evidence of an age effect regarding δ¹⁸O, in contrast with tree-ring width. In our warm and moist sampling site, young tree δ¹³C is not clearly correlated with monthly mean meteorological data. Tree-ring δ¹⁸O appears significantly anti-correlated with summer precipitation amount, regional cloud cover, and relative humidity. Simulations conducted with the ORCHIDEE land surface model confirm the observed contribution of relative humidity to tree cellulose δ¹⁸O, and explain the weak correlation of δ¹³C with climate by the non-linear integration linked with photosynthesis. Altogether, the tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O is shown to be a promising proxy to reconstruct regional summer moisture variability prior to the instrumental period.     

Statistical study on great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23

Characteristics of great geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 were statistically investigated. Firstly, we focused on the uniqueness of solar cycle 23 by analyzing both the great storm number and sunspot number from 1957 to 2008. It was found that the relationship between the sunspot number and great storm number weakened as the activity of the storms strengthened. There was no obvious relationship between the annual sunspot number and great storm number with Dstxi≤-300 nT. Secondly, we studied the relationship between the peak Dst and peak Bz in detail. It was found that the condition Bz≤-10 nT is not necessary for storms with Dst≤-100 nT, but seems necessary for storms with Dst≤-150 nT. The duration for Bz≤-10 nT has no direct relationship with the giant storm. The correlation coefficient between the Dst peak and Bz peak for the 89 storms studied is 0.81. After removing the effect of solar wind dynamic pressure on the Dst peak, we obtained a better correlation coefficient of 0.86. We also found the difference between the Dst peak and the corrected Dst peak was proportional to the Dst peak.     

Seismic failure modeling of concrete dams considering heterogeneity of concrete

Study on the failure process of high concrete dams subjected to strong earthquakes is crucial to reasonable evaluation of their seismic safety. Numerical simulation in this aspect involves dynamic failure analysis of big bulk concrete dam subjected to cyclic loading. The Rock Failure Process Analysis (RFPA) proposed by C.A. Tang, with successful applications to failure modeling of rock and concrete specimens mainly subjected to static loading, is extended for this purpose. For using the proposed model, no knowledge on the cracking route needs to be known beforehand, and no remeshing is required. Simulation of the whole process of elastic deformation, initiation and propagation of microcracks, severe damage and ultimate failure of concrete dams in earthquakes with a unified model is enabled. The model is verified through a shaking table test of an arch dam. Finally a practical gravity dam is employed as a numerical example. Considering the uncertainty in ground motion input and concrete material, typical failure process and failure modes of gravity dam are presented. Several small cracks may occur due to tension particularly at dam neck, dam faces and dam heel, and a few of them evolve into dominant ones. Relatively smaller earthquake may cause damage to the dam neck while a bigger one may bring on cracks at lower parts of the dams. Cracking at the dam bottom may incline to a direction almost perpendicular to the downstream face after propagating horizontally for a certain distance when the shaking is strong enough.     

Assessment of Heavy Metal Contamination of Wetland Soils from a Typical Aquatic–Terrestrial Ecotone in Haihe River Basin,North China

Surface soils were collected in the aquatic–terrestrial ecotone (ATE) of Yongnianwa wetland, downstream of Haihe River basin of North China in June of 2007. Samples were subjected to a total digestion technique before they were analyzed for total concentrations of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn to investigate their pollution levels in the ATE. The contamination index, integrated contamination index, geoaccumulation index, toxic units, and sum of toxic units were adopted to assess the heavy metal contamination levels and ecotoxicity, respectively. The results showed all the selected element concentrations in upland soils of the ecotone were relatively higher than those in the lowland soils. No Cr pollution was observed in all soil samples, but almost all samples were slightly polluted by Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn except for Site 1. The contamination indexes and geoaccumulation indexes consistently presented no contamination for Site 1 and slight contamination for other sites. The ΣTUs increased from lowland to upland, but the whole level of toxicity in this ecotone was relatively low.     

Geochemical Features of the Hubin Spring Gases from the Northern Caldera Lake of the Tianchi Volcano,Changbai Mountains

This paper deals with geochemical features of gas emitted from the Hubin Springs.The Hubin Springs zone,a strong thermal emission zone,is are locatedd at the north edge of the Tianchi caldera lake.Very young deposits with uncertain eruption date are found on the top area of the Tianwenfeng,which might have been formed in one of the recent eruptions or the Millennium Eruption.It is of significance to study the geochemistry features of the emitting gas from the Hubin Springs to understand the activities of the Tianchi Volcano.This paper systematically sampled and analyzed the gases emitted from the Hubin Springs and discussed their geochemistry features.The results show that there is a high content of deep derived gases,such as CO2,He,CH4 and Ar in Hubin Springs zone.The isotopic ratio of He lies between 4.18 and 5.95 Ra.The averaged mantle derived gas content calculated from the 4He/20Ne ratio and He content reaches 67.1%.All these show that the Hubin Springs are located on a special belt of deep gases released in high intensity and large scale.The spatial distribution of Helium isotope is characterized by concavity,showing that this special area may be related to the volcanic edifice.It is highly possible that the released gases represent the residual gas samples of the latest eruptions from the Tianchi Volcano.However more detailed studies are demanded.