Study on electric variations of media in epicentral area by geomagnetic transfer functions

ＳｔｕｄｙｏｎｅｌｅｃｔｒｉｃｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｍｅｄｉａｉｎｅｐｉｃｅｎｔｒａｌａｒｅａｂｙｇｅｏｍａｇｎｅｔｉｃｒａｎｓｆｅｒｆｕｎｃｔｉｏｎｓＸｉａｏ－ＰｉｎｇＺＥＮＧ；（曾小苹）Ｙｕｎ－ＦａｎｇＬＩＮＩ；（林云芳）Ｚｈｏｎｇ－ＪｉｅＺＨ...     

Prediction of tropical cyclone frequency with a wavelet neural network model incorporating natural orthogonal expansion and combined weights

A nonlinear wavelet neural network (WNN) model with natural orthogonal expansion (NOE) and combined weights is constructed to predict the annual frequency of tropical cyclones (TCF) occurring over the coastal regions of Southern China. Combined weights are obtained by calculating categorical weights, based on the particle swarm projection pursuit, and ranking weights, based on fuzzy mathematics, followed by optimization. The global monthly mean heights at 500?hPa and sea-surface temperature fields are used as two predictors. The linear and nonlinear information of the predictors with reduced dimensions is gathered through the NOE and combined weights, respectively, and treated as the input into the WNN model. This model is first trained with the 55-year (i.e., 1950?C2004) TCF data and then used to predict annual TCFs for the subsequent 5?years (i.e., 2005?C2009). Results show that the mean absolute and relative errors are 0.6175 and 9.34?%, respectively. The impacts of the combined weights, NOE and WNN as well as the traditional multi-regression approach on the TCF prediction are examined. Results show superior performance of the WNN-based model in the annual TCF prediction.     

新一代CAPPS系统的开发与推广应用

2002年5月由中国气象局预测减灾司组织,中国气象科学研究院将城市空气质量数值预报系统(CAPPS)第二版发送给全国47个重点城市的气象部门,以取代CAPPS第一版在各城市的空气质量业务预报中应用.与此同时,中国气象科学研究院对47个城市的空气质量预报业务人员进行了培训.CAPPS2以Linux为工作平台在PC机上运行,污染气象预报场由MM5提供,T213资料和常规气象观测资料从MICAPS中获取,可以作48 h的城市污染预报,解决了预报时效问题.CAPPS2还提供各标准等压面上的位势高度、温度、相对湿度、风和降水等气象预报要素场,模式的中心点和网格距可以根据需要随意调整,各省市气象局可以在CAPPS基础上发展适用于本地区的中尺度气象预报、城市污染预报以及其他城市环境气象服务预报模式.     

地面加密自动站资料同化和数值模拟

采用美国多部门研制的WRF模式及其四维变分同化系统,对2008年5月长江中下游地区一次强对流暴雨天气过程进行了数值模拟试验;并分别将质量控制前和质量控制后的华东地区地面加密自动站资料加入模式进行四维变分同化试验,与实况进行了对比。结果表明:模拟试验能较好的模拟此次降水过程;而采用四维变分同化经质量控制后的地面加密资料,模式效果最好,使降水预报在降水落区和降水量上都获得较为明显的改善;但质量控制前四维同化改善效果不明显。这说明地面资料的质量控制很重要,它能去伪存真。有效地利用地面加密自动站资料,能使资料的加入与模式更协调,从而得到了最佳的模拟效果。     

Seismic traveltime inversion of 3D velocity model with triangulated interfaces

Seismic traveltime tomographic inversion has played an important role in detecting the internal structure of the solid earth. We use a set of blocks to approximate geologically complex media that cannot be well described by layered models or cells. The geological body is described as an aggregate of arbitrarily shaped blocks, which are separated by triangulated interfaces. We can describe the media as homogenous or heterogeneous in each block. We define the velocities at the given rectangle grid points for each block, and the heterogeneous velocities in each block can be calculated by a linear interpolation algorithm. The parameters of the velocity grid positions are independent of the model parameterization, which is advantageous in the joint inversion of the velocities and the node depths of an interface. We implement a segmentally iterative ray tracer to calculate traveltimes in the 3D heterogeneous block models. The damped least squares method is employed in seismic traveltime inversion, which includes the partial derivatives of traveltime with respect to the depths of nodes in the triangulated interfaces and velocities defined in rectangular grids. The numerical tests indicate that the node depths of a triangulated interface and homogeneous velocity distributions can be well inverted in a stratified model.     

The extension of the parametrization of the radio source coordinates in geodetic VLBI and its impact on the time series analysis

The radio sources within the most recent celestial reference frame (CRF) catalog ICRF2 are represented by a single, time-invariant coordinate pair. The datum sources were chosen mainly according to certain statistical properties of their position time series. Yet, such statistics are not applicable unconditionally, and also ambiguous. However, ignoring systematics in the source positions of the datum sources inevitably leads to a degradation of the quality of the frame and, therefore, also of the derived quantities such as the Earth orientation parameters. One possible approach to overcome these deficiencies is to extend the parametrization of the source positions, similarly to what is done for the station positions. We decided to use the multivariate adaptive regression splines algorithm to parametrize the source coordinates. It allows a great deal of automation, by combining recursive partitioning and spline fitting in an optimal way. The algorithm finds the ideal knot positions for the splines and, thus, the best number of polynomial pieces to fit the data autonomously. With that we can correct the ICRF2 a priori coordinates for our analysis and eliminate the systematics in the position estimates. This allows us to introduce also special handling sources into the datum definition, leading to on average 30 % more sources in the datum. We find that not only the CPO can be improved by more than 10 % due to the improved geometry, but also the station positions, especially in the early years of VLBI, can benefit greatly.     

青藏高原晚始新世干旱化事件：改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素的记录

改则盆地位于青藏高原腹地,盆地内沉积物记录了高原古环境变化的重要信息。本文对改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素进行研究,结果显示改则盆地中-晚始新世的演化分为两个阶段:1中始新世湿润气候下开放湖盆阶段:虽然碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值在43层处向正值偏移,但整体~(18)O和~(13)C强烈亏损,并且该时期碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C变化相关系数为R~2=0.082。表明该阶段的研究区虽然经历过短期蒸发作用增强或补给水减少,但整体是气候湿润条件下补给水丰富的开放型湖盆。2晚始新世干旱气候下封闭湖盆阶段:经过中新世晚期(63层)气候和湖泊水文状态的过渡,晚始新世~(18)O和~(13)C同位素富集,δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C值变化相关系数为R~2=0.7762。表明该阶段气候干旱,蒸发作用强烈,湖盆萎缩成为封闭湖盆。综合前人研究,认为青藏高原腹地及北缘、东北缘在晚始新世存在明显的区域性干旱化事件。对比分析青藏高原隆升、全球气候记录、全球海水Sr和大气CO_2记录,认为青藏高原腹地和北部的干旱化事件主要受青藏高原隆升的影响。     

Preliminary results of measuring the crustal deformation in Qinghai-Xizang area using GPS technique

GPS repetition measurement tbta in Qinghai-Xizatlg (Tibetan) area in 1992 and 1994 have been used to determine the change rates of seven bascline vectors of Lhasa-Wenquan, etc. It is the first time to obtain the direct observation results of the large-scale crustal horizontal motions in this area. Thesc preliminary results also for the first time provide the direct observation evidence for some important geophysical and geological viewpoints, such as the northward gradual reduce of the effect of the northward push-pressing to Eurasian continent by Indian Plate in the Qinghai-Xizang area, having a southward strike slip movement of the Chuan-Dian diamond block, etc.     

Aliphatic biomarker signatures of early Oligocene-early Miocene source rocks in the central Qiongdongnan Basin: Source analyses of organic matter

The geochemical signatures of fifty-four rock samples and three supplementary drill stem test(DST) oils from the Yacheng-Sanya formations in the central Qiongdongnan Basin(CQB) were analysed. Reconstruction of the early Oligocene-early Miocene(36–16 Ma) palaeovegetation and source analyses of organic matter(OM) were conducted using aliphatic biomarkers in ancient sediments and DST oils. Both the interpreted aquatic and terrigenous OM contributed to the CQB source rocks(SRs) but had varying relat...     

小刺豆荚软珊瑚化学成分研究

对采自南海南沙群岛永暑礁水域的小刺豆荚软珊瑚Lobophytummicrospiculatum的化学成分进行了研究,分离出7个化合物。其中化合物1为新的神经酰胺,命名为小刺酰胺。化合物3为22－表－孕马烷甾醇,首次从软珊瑚中分离到。